RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[Phoenix7]

River The "ASCO" effect.

River here is the link to an article about the ASCO effect or American Society Of Clinical Oncology http://www.smallstocks.com/article/b...our-money-days
Apparently the conference is held June 1-5 and Research Abstracts will serve as the basis for the presentations . If one can find the names of companies that will be discussed ....a "Fortune" in picking the right Bio Pharma stocks can be made . All is explained in the short article.
River have any clues as to what companies may be discussed?

[riverbabe]

River here is the link to an article about the ASCO effect or American Society Of Clinical Oncology http://www.smallstocks.com/article/b...our-money-days
Apparently the conference is held June 1-5 and Research Abstracts will serve as the basis for the presentations . If one can find the names of companies that will be discussed ....a "Fortune" in picking the right Bio Pharma stocks can be made . All is explained in the short article.
River have any clues as to what companies may be discussed?

Yes, I watch the live blog from ASCO every year. When I find a list, I'll let you know. It changes periodically, so any list right now is preliminary until after the Abstracts are all in.

[riverbabe]

Amln

Follow-up to AMLN discussion on "Phoenix". http://www.investopedia.com/stock-an...#axzz1toiadN5O

[riverbabe]

FDA approval (or not) dates

This is a list of 26 drugs facing FDA in 2012, for those with a strong heart, a lion's courage, (no comment on "brain") and $$$ to burn. Remember, you can always short these instead of long or play options. Either way the risk/reward is 1:1. Gulp. Soar or crash and burn.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11516792/1/26-drugs-facing-fda-approval-in-2012.html

[Phoenix7]

River thanx

This is a list of 26 drugs facing FDA in 2012, for those with a strong heart, a lion's courage, (no comment on "brain") and $$$ to burn. Remember, you can always short these instead of long or play options. Either way the risk/reward is 1:1. Gulp. Soar or crash and burn.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11516...l-in-2012.html

River the Kentucky Derby is Saturday .....I think you have a better chance trying to pick the 1st place horse , than which biopharma will rocket up LOL.
Oh well I will try to follow the stocks above for possible breakouts....Take care ......and once again Thank You!

[riverbabe]

River the Kentucky Derby is Saturday .....I think you have a better chance trying to pick the 1st place horse , than which biopharma will rocket up LOL.
Oh well I will try to follow the stocks above for possible breakouts....Take care ......and once again Thank You!

Forgot to mention, some of these have Advisory panel dates before the big decision date. These are hearings in front of independent professionals. The panel's decision recommending for approval or against is not binding on the FDA, but may give some indication as to how things are leaning. The panel decision can also provide a pop (or not). The closeness of the decision, e.g. 6:5, 10:1, 7:4, can indicate also. R/R still 1:1.

[riverbabe]

Amln

Did I mention Amalyn (AMLN) is a takeover target? The big news today is the big guns are after AMLN, with first bids due in two weeks. (Thank you Carl Icahn!) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...tml?cmpid=yhoo

[riverbabe]

Yes, I watch the live blog from ASCO every year. When I find a list, I'll let you know. It changes periodically, so any list right now is preliminary until after the Abstracts are all in.

As promised, this is a partial ASCO abstract list:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11539763/1/asco-12-abstract-dump-cancer-stocks-in-focus-update.html

[riverbabe]

Shorting strategy

An article appeared in Seeking Alpha 0n May 9, 2012 describing a simple strategy for shorting a baby biotech after FDA approval. I have not tested this strategy, nor do I vouch for it, but it's worth a thought.

1. Short the stock at the first open after the news release. If the approval announcement is after hours or intra-day, sell at the open the next day. If the approval coomes pre-market, sell at the open the same day.

2. Buy back at the close on subsequent days.

River

[billyjoe]

River,
Just received a semiannual report from HQL Life Sciences a closed end Health Fund. For the six months ending 3/31 it has returned 42.21% vs. 32.35% for the NASDAQ Biotech Index, NBI.

---------HQL is within 5% of a 5 year high, Pays a 8.34% dividend, and is aggressively buying back stock. Being a reinvesting holder for nearly 3 years I'm up 65% and wonder why it's doing so well. Picking individual biotech companies is very difficult. Their largest holdings are: Teva, Celgene, Alexion, Gilead, Akorn, Vertex, Mylan, Perrigo, Regeneron, and Illumina.

---------Daniel Omstead, president of the company speculates on their success. In summary he cites increased M&A activity, positive clinical trial data, and Favorable Supreme Count rulings expected to uphold most of the
Affordable Care Act.

---------Some of the M&A mentioned: Express Scripts acquiring Medco, Roche Holding AG attempt to acquire Illumina (failed), Amgen/Micromet, Celgene/Avita Medical, Cubist/Adolor, Jazz/Azur, Watson Pharm/Actavis.
This activity keeps interest in the sector booming.

---------Clinical trial data highlights include rapid advances in Hepatitis C treatment such as Vertex and Merck's polymerase inhibitor drugs, Incivek and Victrelis, very effective treatments with no increase in side effects. Pharmasset, now owned by Gilead Sciences has another breakthrough Hepatitis drug used in combo with existing treatments that looks like another blockbuster. Other promising developments are Biogen Idec's BG-12 for Multiple Sclerosis, Vertex's Kalydeco for Cystic Fibrosis, Seattle Genetics Adcetris /Hodgkins Lymphoma , Amlin's Bydureon/Diabetes, and Takeda/Affymax's Omontys for anemia. The FDA's approval of these drugs has generated continued excitement in the industry.

----------Finally, the Supreme Court held hearings in March that will result in rulings in July that should uphold much of the Affordable Care Act of 2010. The 4 major points are the constutionality of required health care insurance purchase , whether the requirement can be separated from the rest of the ACA, constitutionality of Medicaid expansion, and whether the Court can rule on the first 3 items before 2014.

---------------billy

[riverbabe]

Hi billy. Have HQL in my IRA and reinvesting divis. Thanks to your recommendations from months & months ago. Thanks for the update!

[riverbabe]

Vvus Arna amrn

These are the results of a poll of bio lovers re. ARNA, VVUS & AMRN. Note that in previous polls the results have been right 60% of the time. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11584...stors-say.html

[billyjoe]

Did I mention Amalyn (AMLN) is a takeover target? The big news today is the big guns are after AMLN, with first bids due in two weeks. (Thank you Carl Icahn!) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...tml?cmpid=yhoo

River,
Do you consider AMLN a baby biotech or is the market cap too big? Morpheus and some other stock services are high on AMLN strictly on technicals which are certainly in this case somewhat driven by the news. A gain is a gain any way you can get it, right ? Mrs. Billy says she'll start bringing home her BioTechniques magazine from the lab although I'm illiterate in that field.

-----------billy

[riverbabe]

Amln

River,
Do you consider AMLN a baby biotech or is the market cap too big? Morpheus and some other stock services are high on AMLN strictly on technicals which are certainly in this case somewhat driven by the news. A gain is a gain any way you can get it, right ? Mrs. Billy says she'll start bringing home her BioTechniques magazine from the lab although I'm illiterate in that field.

-----------billy

Bill, I consider AMLN a takeover target with a nice anti-diabetes pipeline and sales. The company has put itself up for sale, thanks to Carl Icahn. I had thought it would have been sold by now. Also the FDA needs more information about an extended usage of one of its products. May have to wait until Sept. now. Hate tieing up my $$ this way. But am thinking of adding some if it pulls back. Looking for 30+. No stops below. Look how stops got taken out in ARNA this AM!!

[Deaddog]

RB:

My scans showed up NPSP A pharma company that had a drug recommended for approval in Europe. Has it ever showed up in your universe?