RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[Deaddog]

Wow Babe: Betting the farm? What a good idea! I’ve met quite a few farmers in my travels, and they all claim that you can’t make any money farming. How they afford the ½ million-dollar motor homes to winter in Arizona is still a mystery to me. Must be the Government subsidies.

You would think that if everyone knows there is going to be a buy out that the price would be higher. I know squat about biotecks (your area of experetise) but consider the following.

Possible sales of 500K if they get ½ of the market. That’s just over $3 per share in sales. The big boys have a price/sales ratio of less than 3 so that values the company at about 9 bucks.

Keep an eye on what the insiders are doing. They will have a better handle on what going on than anyone else. The info I get off yahoo show that they are selling more than buying. Go figure.

Anyhow good luck. Hope you get to keep your farm. Hate to think about the sayonara part.

[riverbabe]

Wow Babe: Betting the farm? What a good idea! I’ve met quite a few farmers in my travels, and they all claim that you can’t make any money farming. How they afford the ½ million-dollar motor homes to winter in Arizona is still a mystery to me. Must be the Government subsidies.

You would think that if everyone knows there is going to be a buy out that the price would be higher. I know squat about biotecks (your area of experetise) but consider the following.

Possible sales of 500K if they get ½ of the market. That’s just over $3 per share in sales. The big boys have a price/sales ratio of less than 3 so that values the company at about 9 bucks.

Keep an eye on what the insiders are doing. They will have a better handle on what going on than anyone else. The info I get off yahoo show that they are selling more than buying. Go figure.

Anyhow good luck. Hope you get to keep your farm. Hate to think about the sayonara part.

Here's a valuation analysis:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/864191-amarin-is-still-a-buy-despite-nce-indecision?source=yahoo

[Deaddog]

Here's a valuation analysis:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/8641...n?source=yahoo

See I toll you I didn't know nothin. Thats the trouble when you dealin with farm boys.
One thing bothered me with the valuation though; They were using 4 times sales (the industry average) to get their price target. The guys that can afford to buy them all seem to have P/S ratios of less than 3. Go figure.

I'm always suspicious of a brokerage giving an estimate of future price, If they were at all confident of that price wouldn't they shut up and buy all they could at the lower price? Could it be thay have an inventory of stock they want to peddle to some unsuspecting farmer?

How long will you hold on if nothing happens? Got any kind of exit strategy besides being bought out?

[riverbabe]

See I toll you I didn't know nothin. Thats the trouble when you dealin with farm boys.
One thing bothered me with the valuation though; They were using 4 times sales (the industry average) to get their price target. The guys that can afford to buy them all seem to have P/S ratios of less than 3. Go figure.

I'm always suspicious of a brokerage giving an estimate of future price, If they were at all confident of that price wouldn't they shut up and buy all they could at the lower price? Could it be thay have an inventory of stock they want to peddle to some unsuspecting farmer?

How long will you hold on if nothing happens? Got any kind of exit strategy besides being bought out?

Good points! 1) Only explanation I can think of for the 4X sales is that it's going to be a blockbuster drug (think Lipitor on steroids). 2) baby bios always seem to do a price stall when everybody has their fill. This stock has been stalled for ages. Very few more buyers here. So my worry is more along the lines of how successful the negotiations will be vis-a-vis price. 3) Re. Lovaza, the COO who launched it is now the CEO of AMRN. (I have to check if this is correct for sure.) 4) The company has said all along there are 3 choices: a buy-out, a partner, a self-launch, with preferences in that order. In the latest cc, they mentioned an exciting 60-90 days upcoming. So my time frame is give them till the middle of Oct. If they don't announce a buyer by then, I'm out, because the other 2 choices will kill the pps.

[riverbabe]

Amrn

OK, I was right about Reliant Pharma, Lovaza, and Joe Z. launching it as COO before the buyout by GSK. He is now CEO of Amarin.

http://www.gsk.com/media/pressreleases/2007/2007_11_21_GSK1147.htm

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/officerProfile?symbol=AMRN.O&officerId=1422642

[Deaddog]

I have to admit that you are the only person who can strike the fear of God into me and leave me sleepless. You know I am talking about AMRN. Yours truly, your fellow Canadian (dual citizen) from Waterloo, Ontario.

RB: I’m sorry, I don’t mean to put the fear of anything in anyone. If you’d prefer I’ll shut up.

I approach every trade looking for what could possibly go wrong. I look at how much money I could lose rather than how much I can make. Most of my losing trades I consider successful because I followed my plan and didn’t let my losses get away from me. Back to the wall and keeping an eye on all the exits.

Biotechs aren’t my field. Sound like a coin toss to me. If the news is good I win a bundle and if it isn’t I lose my bet. I’d rather go to Vegas and play blackjack. At least I get free drinks. Hey I love a good gamble but I definitely keep my bets down to my comfort level.

Who knows; the price action right now could just be shaking out the weak hands before the price runs up. Look like support around 11 bucks. Could have a few good days before the end of the quarter as the fund managers do a little window dressing.

Every trade has two sides, the guy who thinks the price is overvalued and the girl who thinks it’s undervalued. One of then happens to be wrong. Chances are it’s the guy cause I’ve never known a woman to be wrong.

I have no clue what’s going to happen. The only thing I can control is how I react to what the market does. I’m still learning.

Last piece if advice; Don’t listen to some anonymous old dog on the internet. You have your own style of investing, your own well thought out plan and if it works for you then stick to it.

Ontario?? Isn't that one of those provinces on the wrong side of the Rockies?

[riverbabe]

Thank you Dog, feel better now, for better or worse. And Waterloo is the home of Oktoberfest. we are all German. My ancestors since 1839. We are proud. I should send you copies of my family history books I have written, listed on Amazon.

[edward]

Hey River!
What do you think of OraSure? Interesting story - the company produces over-the-shelf HIV test kits currently being distributed to all the major retailers. They're also into at-home testing for DNA and Hep-C. The CEO was on Kramer a few nights ago. A quick look at the chart makes me wonder if there isn't some significant upside to be had over the next few months. Looking forward to your comments.

[riverbabe]

Hey River!
What do you think of OraSure? Interesting story - the company produces over-the-shelf HIV test kits currently being distributed to all the major retailers. They're also into at-home testing for DNA and Hep-C. The CEO was on Kramer a few nights ago. A quick look at the chart makes me wonder if there isn't some significant upside to be had over the next few months. Looking forward to your comments.

I owned OSUR at least 10 years ago when they first announced their in-home HIV test. They finally got FDA approval in July 2012, only 10 years later! Anyway, they have apparently shipped product to CVS, RiteAID, Walgreen's, Kroger, & WalMart distributers for them to then distribute to some 30,000 retail stores. Launch was expected by 10/1, but is now postponed to around 10/15. I think it's a good buy here looking for a run-up to the launch. Should get a nice pop to sell into. But beware massive insider selling into it too. Very short-term here, but worth a longer term buy on the inevitable pull-back from the launch pop.

[IIC]

I traded SRPT last week...Doug

[riverbabe]

I traded SRPT last week...Doug

Good trade last week. Good news data.

[riverbabe]

Hey River!
What do you think of OraSure? Interesting story - the company produces over-the-shelf HIV test kits currently being distributed to all the major retailers. They're also into at-home testing for DNA and Hep-C. The CEO was on Kramer a few nights ago. A quick look at the chart makes me wonder if there isn't some significant upside to be had over the next few months. Looking forward to your comments.

Happy Thanksgiving!

[edward]

Thanks! Hope you're enjoying a good excuse for turkey and all the fixin's too!

[Massimo]

Heb

Hello RiverBabe,

I am not sure if you have followed HEB recently, but if you have, I would
appreciate your thoughts on it in the short term please.

Cheers!

[riverbabe]

Hello RiverBabe,

I am not sure if you have followed HEB recently, but if you have, I would
appreciate your thoughts on it in the short term please.

Cheers!

Risky risky, this one. FDA doesn't like Ampligen so far, so what have they done to improve chances? Apparently not very much. Did an ATM stock offering @ 0.92, (http://www.thestreet.com/story/11730...-red-flag.html) Lots of day/swing trading in past week or two. Currently @ 0.70. Not my cup of tea, so can't recommend it, sorry.