RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[billyjoe]

River, Sold my TRIB yesterday for a 5% gain. Revisions to future earnings aren't good. Put the $$ back into KKR, not a biotech, but looking real good and about the same price as TRIB so easy to convert. DHR's future is very bright. Did you know that the buyer of Beckmann Coulter started as a REIT?

------------------billy

[riverbabe]

River, Sold my TRIB yesterday for a 5% gain. Revisions to future earnings aren't good. Put the $$ back into KKR, not a biotech, but looking real good and about the same price as TRIB so easy to convert. DHR's future is very bright. Did you know that the buyer of Beckmann Coulter started as a REIT?

------------------billy

Learn something new every day. Happy for your TRIB gain. Love the KKR divi. I'm in 4 REITs now. Keeping fingers crossed rising interest rates won't hurt them.

[sixfeetfour]

Riverbabe -
I was wondering what your outlook is for NVS Novaritis AG. They have 12 new filings slated for the 2014 clinical pipeline where this year they only had 5.

I came across this article in some research that I found quite interesting as well.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/07/health/cohen-cancer-study/index.html?eref=rss_mostpopular&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_mostpopular+%28RSS%3A+Most+Popular%29

Curious on what your 6-18 month outllook would be on NVS.

[riverbabe]

Riverbabe -
I was wondering what your outlook is for NVS Novaritis AG. They have 12 new filings slated for the 2014 clinical pipeline where this year they only had 5.

I came across this article in some research that I found quite interesting as well.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/07/health/cohen-cancer-study/index.html?eref=rss_mostpopular&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_mostpopular+%28RSS%3A+Most+Popular%29

Curious on what your 6-18 month outllook would be on NVS.

Hello tall guy. Although I try to analyze only "baby biotechs," I can tell you that NVS is one of my favorite big pharmas and I have been in and out of it many times over the years. ( have also worked with them in the distant past on patent matters.) They are solid! And there have been a lot of reported success stories in the last few weeks+. The divi is now at 3.2%, not bad. IMHO they aren't going away and are a safe bet 6-18 months out.

Technically, on the weekly chart, looks like it has completed an Elliot wave 1/2/3/4/5 pattern and may be going into an a/b/c pullback. But it has steadily been climbing the upper Bollinger band. IMHO this is a company I would have no hesitation in buying on a pullback to the 20 dma, (or even the 50 dma except that in the current strong market it might not get there.) Good luck. (Disclaimer, I am not giving you advice as to what to do here. It's all just MHO.)

[riverbabe]

Alnylam (al-NIGH-lam) is an orphan-drug biopharmaceutical company with headquarters in the constellation ORION (see home page, LOL). Headquarters is visible from planet Earth as the center star of Orion's belt! A subsidiary on the planet Earth in the Milky Way galaxy is located in Cambridge, Mass. The company's pipeline drugs are based on a new technology using RNAi (RNA interference). For those of you all who do not have an advanced degree in biochem or other biotech sciences, don't throw in the towel just yet. What is important here is that they have a good pipeline of products with some success in Phase 2 studies. They are currently enrolling at least one Phase 3 study. http://www.alnylam.com/Programs-and-Pipeline/index.php They have been presenting at various conferences and the latest Press Release is here: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....479&highlight=

They have lots and lots of issued patents and pending patents all over the world: http://www.alnylam.com/Intellectual-...view/index.php and http://www.alnylam.com/Intellectual-...tate/index.php They are also well represented by major pharma as research and development partners.

In short, as Lou said, they are a promising early development baby biotech. They sort of remind me of BMRN and AMRN early on. And we all know that BMRN is doing well and AMRN just crashed and burned. So ya pays yer money and takes yer chances. OR you can bet the short term pops whenever they schedule another conference to report more good results. OR you can wait a few years for terrific results from the Phase 3 study and then bet on a run up to an FDA PDUFA date or European approval. OR big excited takeover rumors and another short term pop.

I wish I were 25 again with a load of money and a lifetime to wait. Not to mention could take the risks involved in any baby biotech's evolution. Also wish I could have a clearer view of Orion's belt to see what's in the stars for ALNY.

So Louetta, do you think maybe someone somewhere knew something? Looks like you got a good tip. Shows also that I knew NOTHING! NOTHING!

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/13/sanofi-unit-to-buy-700-million-stake-in-rare-disease-company/?nl=business&emc=edit_dlbkam_20140113

"Sanofi Unit to Buy $700 Million Stake in Rare Disease Company Genzyme, the American biotechnology unit of the French drug maker Sanofi, is buying a 12 percent stake in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals for $700 million as part of an expanded alliance to develop treatments for rare genetic diseases...."

[Louetta]

So Louetta, do you think maybe someone somewhere knew something? Looks like you got a good tip. Shows also that I knew NOTHING! NOTHING!

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/13/sanofi-unit-to-buy-700-million-stake-in-rare-disease-company/?nl=business&emc=edit_dlbkam_20140113

"Sanofi Unit to Buy $700 Million Stake in Rare Disease Company Genzyme, the American biotechnology unit of the French drug maker Sanofi, is buying a 12 percent stake in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals for $700 million as part of an expanded alliance to develop treatments for rare genetic diseases...."

Very likely. We have a family connection with a VC firm which deals in biotech. I originally got AMRN from them, latter JAZZ. Selling JAZZ too early is the biggest mistake I've ever made, I think. CADX is a more recent one which has done very well.

[billyjoe]

River, You probably got the e-mail from Zacks about ACHN (follow the money). Any thoughts on them? They dropped like a rock after trials stopped on their Hepatitis 3 drug. Funds are buying them up like crazy in the last few weeks. BIIB and ALXN keep showing up on my graphs. These bios have burned me so often I should just put them all on a no buy list. Checking my watch list and finding a 50% drop is a nightmare that won't go away.

-------------------billy

[riverbabe]

River, You probably got the e-mail from Zacks about ACHN (follow the money). Any thoughts on them? They dropped like a rock after trials stopped on their Hepatitis 3 drug. Funds are buying them up like crazy in the last few weeks. BIIB and ALXN keep showing up on my graphs. These bios have burned me so often I should just put them all on a no buy list. Checking my watch list and finding a 50% drop is a nightmare that won't go away.

-------------------billy

I got it but would have had to chase it at that point. So didn't get in. (I really like FTM, not a stock. LOL). My nightmare was first a >50% haircut in DNDN and then the same in AMRN. My newest profits have more than made up for them. Thank you, market god.

[billyjoe]

River,
I'm all in now. Bought at 5.30 shortly before your post and again today at 5.08. Barchart has support at 4.97 and 4.84. Resistance 5.31 and 5.52. VV has a stop at 4.68.

----------billy

MNKD's ship has finally come in after several years. Unfortunately I jumped long ago. FDA apparently will approve Afrezza inhaleable insulin. MNKD more than doubles in after hours trading. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...#axzz2xg73mtbf

---------------------billy

[riverbabe]

MNKD's ship has finally come in after several years. Unfortunately I jumped long ago. FDA apparently will approve Afrezza inhaleable insulin. MNKD more than doubles in after hours trading. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...#axzz2xg73mtbf

---------------------billy

I bailed a long time ago too. Didn't want to chance the binary this time again. Oh well...

[billyjoe]

River, After the long wait of over 3 years my son told me he bought some calls right as MNKD tanked before the news and he pocketed a fast $500. Some of the only good news I've heard.

--------------------billy

[riverbabe]

River, After the long wait of over 3 years my son told me he bought some calls right as MNKD tanked before the news and he pocketed a fast $500. Some of the only good news I've heard.

--------------------billy

That is terrific!

[toxo]

Hi River, holding any QCOR? Not me...

[riverbabe]

Hi River, holding any QCOR? Not me...

No, not QCOR. But I have been in and out of (similar) RTRX several times with spectacular results.

[riverbabe]

Made an Ebola play yesterday -- NLNK. A few to choose from, but they're all starting at Phase 1 trials anyway. Bot at 23.52 and it closed at 22.95 (of course!)