Stocks for the Long Term

[BlueWolf]

I'm interested.

OK. Thanks. I’ll continue doing the write ups.

BTW, I put some of the money from the positions I sold back into circulation and bought some ZM. It’s the first IPO in a while I have liked. I don’t have a position (yet), but I also have some interest in another IPO, RVLV.

[jiesen]

Thanks, BW. I may not post to this thread much, but I do read all the posts, and find some good info here quite often. Please keep it up!

[BlueWolf]

Thanks, BW. I may not post to this thread much, but I do read all the posts, and find some good info here quite often. Please keep it up!

Thanks Jiesen. More write ups on the way.

[Louetta]

I would recommend four plays here for long-term, two of which are functionally equivalent.

First is STOR, a Buffett favorite, who essentially buy and rent properties in strip malls, as opposed to large store anchored malls, concentrating on businesses which by their nature can't be online-ized out of business. Examples would be barber shops, pool halls, nail (fingernail I point out, since most people here are men) shops, etc. Pays a 4.5% dividend, has recently pulled back under 28 after making new highs up to the 31s consistently since after 10/1.

JDD, Nuveen Diversified Dividend and Income, which invests in dividend-paying common stocks including those of companies that derive revenues from residential real estate and debt securities from governments. It is up to 33% leveraged. Currently at a nine year low paying 10% at the current price. Rated 5 stars by Morningstar for 10 years, 4 stars for 5 years and 3 stars for 3 years.

PFF and PGX. Both are ETFs which invest primarily in preferred shares. Each has recently bounced off a 5 year low as they became less attractive as rates generally rose and now rates seem maybe to have approached near term highs if the Fed backs off. Each pays almost 6%. They may at this level offer hope for capital gains (if one sells). I've bought both just to provide some safety against the remote possibility something happens internally to either (e.g. SEC complaints). I have also held most of my preferreds which are underwater for the same reasons these are and will sell the preferreds gradually as (if) I can get my money back. Might take a while.

(Also reported elsewhere have bought AMZN, MSFT, BST, AAPL.)

The above is from 1-3-19. STOR has been doing well for about 2 years now, Schwab shows it just under 20 in June of 2017 (34.70 right now) and up 22% YTD with the dividend now just under 4%. I've done pretty well stealing Buffett ideas, STNE would be another tho that has tailed off some lately.

Speaking of YTD, JDD PFF and PGX have each done well since the first of the year, up 7%, 16% and 15% respectively, very good moves for such conservative investments. But if you get a 1-year chart instead of YTD you get an excellent example of how misleading graphs and statistics can be as the 1-year price charts look like elevation views of the Grand Canyon. Each of these fell 20-25% late in 2018 and are only now at or near where they were a year ago. Nevertheless my thesis in the 1-3-2019 post was to buy these near significant lows and hold till these and my preferreds came back to reasonable values and they have. Haven't sold anything because if I do I lose my interest payments and at least I'm in at good prices. Hopefully someone is still awake.

I also mentioned AMZN, MSFT, BST and AAPL. Schwab shows these YTD as up 24%, 30%, 18%, 23% respectively. Figure to hold the first two at least 'til there are changes in top management. Not so sure about the last two.

As I mentioned elsewhere I have started to lighten by selling my fuzzier performers. We've come kind of a long way.

[BlueWolf]

Write Up on MDB

MDB

MongoDB (MDB) is a US-based company that sells general-purpose database products. They are one of my top five long term picks. What makes them so unique is that they provide what it called a NoSQL database. NoSQL databases derive their names from the fact that they use a mechanism for storage and retrieval of data that is not based on the tabular, column and row based model of SQL (relational) databases such as Oracle’s products. Having worked with flat file, relational (SQL), and object-oriented databases for most of my professional career, I can attest to how difficult it can be to work with relational databases and to write complex SQL queries. MDB touts their products as document databases that map the objects in the database directly to objects in your application code, making the database programming more intuitive. MDB’s databases also employ a distributed model that facilitates scaling, high availability, and geographic distribution. Sound interesting? Well, apparently the database consuming community agrees. In the five years since MDB went public, earnings have skyrocketed. In their first year of reporting, revenue was $65.27 million. For the current (fifth) year, they are on track for $306.27 million. That 369% growth in five years. During that time, share price has gone from the IPO price of $33 to the current price of $167.76. That’s a 408% increase. They are still losing money, but this is typical for a fairly recent IPO. The good news is that losses have declined each quarter and they are on track to become profitable in FY 2020. More importantly they have the look of a company that is well on it’s way to $1 billion in sales. That kind of growth will translate into a big return for investors, which is why I hold MDB shares in my portfolio a have for some time.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

Bold=Write Up Available

[BlueWolf]

I was so tempted to buy some BYND, but I’m cautious around IPOs. You can’t really read them technically, and the financials are not yet available for any period of time, so you have to make the bet totally on your best guess at potential. I wish I had made the bet on this one. It’s a four bagger in just under six weeks!

[BlueWolf]

Write Up on OKTA

OKTA

Okta Inc (OKTA) is yet another provider of cloud services for the enterprise. What makes OKTA unique is it’s focus on providing security, or more specifically, identity services in the cloud. The Okta Identity Cloud enables customers to secure their users and connect them to technology, anywhere, anytime and from any device. The Okta Identity Cloud is used by organizations in two distinct and powerful ways, to manage and secure their internal users, and to connect and secure their external users via the APIs it has developed. The company derives its revenue from subscription fees which include support fees, and professional services fees. It should be obvious that the services OKTA provides are needed by virtually every enterprise, i.e. there is no questioning the size of the opportunity. So how has OKTA been able to execute? In the five fiscal years since its 2015 IPO, OKTA’s revenue has grown from $41.01 to $399.25. That’s an 874% gain! In the current year, they are on target for $440.86 in revenue, and they will become profitable for the first time. This is another company that looks like it is on track to becoming a major player in an area that estimates say will become a $20 billion market. I like to invest in growth, and OKTA’s growth has been, and will likely continue to be, spectacular.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

Bold=Write Up Available

[billyjoe]

Here's one I'm holding more as a short termer, my son is holding long term. CLF also pays over a 2% dividend that sweetens the pot. From this chart I noticed it has dropped below 10 then crossed above 10 six times in the last 4 months. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...ow=True&time=7

I bought at the last dip and have a sell order in at 10.50. Missed it by .02 today. I cancelled that order and will see what tomorrows open brings.
As a short term investment I'd buy under 10 and sell again above 10. This pattern could continue repeating.

----------------billy

[billyjoe]

CLF has now crossed below 10 then over 10 seven times in the last 6 months. I sold today at 10.50 for a profit over 10%. Will try to repeat this trade as long as it keeps repeating trend. I'd call this a long term /short term hold.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=clf&insttype=&freq=1&show=True&time=7

-----------------------billy

[BlueWolf]

Write Up on TDOC

TDOC

Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC) is a “telehealth” platform that delivers 24-hour, on-demand healthcare via mobile devices, the Internet, video, and phone. Its platform connects members with a network of physicians and behavioral health professionals. TDOC receives the majority of its revenue from subscription access fees. It has partnered with employers, health plans, and health systems to create a base of over 26 million subscribers. TDOC is a bit more of a speculative play than many others on my list. I just believe they are onto something. Connecting medical practitioners with patients electronically makes a lot of sense. It’s an effective way to reduce costs while still getting medical service to patients that do not require emergency attention. Heck, I use it since it is included with my Blue Shield insurance. So how well has TDOC’s model been doing overall? Starting from a revenue base of $19.9M in FY2013, TDOC had grown into a $417.8 company by FY2018. They are on track for $456.84 for FY2019. That’s 2,196% growth in just 7 years with a CAGR of 56.5%! Unfortunately, that’s not all there is to the story. TDOC has been reinvesting its revenue into its continued growth, so it doesn’t yet have anything to show in it’s bottom line. It’s on track for a FY2019 EPS of -$1.51, which is a decent cash burn considering they have almost 70M shares outstanding. Also, while revenue and its subscriber base continue to grow at an impressive rate, growth has been decelerating. In fairness, that’s a little to be expected when you reach the size of TDOC, but when investors see a CAGR of 50+% they get a little spoiled and can punish a stock for not maintaining the same level of frenetic growth. The bottom line is that this is not a stock without risks, but you know how I love growth stories, and I just happen to believe that the growth story here is far from being over. Even if the stock get punished in the short term for slowing growth, I believe investors will eventually wise up, and as TDOC’s bottom line improves, the share price will catch up with its groundbreaking accomplishments.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO
Bold = Write up available

[BlueWolf]

Thought I’d share this exciting article about CRISPR technology. Of course, I’m biased as I own one of the two big CRISPR tech companies, EDIT. The other, CRSP, has been on my LT radar for a while, but I haven’t pulled the trigger on it yet since I already own EDIT and want to stay a little diversified. If you have an interest in biotech as an investment, I recommend you take a look at EDIT and CRSP for the long term. You might have to be patient, but there is some exciting tech in these companies.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/researchers-used-crispr-technology-to-cure-hiv-in-living-mice.html

[BlueWolf]

Write Up on TEAM

TEAM

Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM) makes a suite of powerful tools that designed to assist software development organizations with the design, development, licensing and maintenance of their software products. Some of their tools include ...
Jira: A tool design to help organizations plan, track, and release world-class software within an Agile framework.
Confluence: A tool for organizing work, creating documents, and discuss everything in one place.
BitBucket: A tool for collaborating and managing Git repositories as a team.
HipChat: A tool for team messaging and communications.
Bamboo: A tool for continuous integration, deployment, and release management.
Jira Service Desk: A tool that provides customers with an easy way to ask for help and that provides service agents a fast way to resolve incidents.

Now I’ll be the first to admit that software development support tools and suites are a dime a dozen. So what makes TEAM’s products so special? Well, first of all, they are used by just about everyone from Fortune 500 companies to government instructions. NASA used them to develop the Mars lander. Cochlear used them to develop its aural implants. Even outfits as disparate as Toyota and Kaiser Permanente use them. And then there is compatibility. Not only do their tools work together seamlessly to cover the entire development and deployment lifecycle, they also work together with industry standards such as Oracle, Microsoft Office, SOAP, and, of course, the web. Heck, they even work together with Android and iOS based smart phones. Oh, and did I mention that it all works in the cloud? It’s basically collaboration anywhere, at any time, for just about any reason.

So how is TEAM doing with this world killer of a product lineup? In the previous five fiscal years, TEAM’s revenue has grown from $220M in FY2014 to $870M in FY2018. That’s a 295% improvement and a five year CAGR of 31.6%. In 2019, they are on track for $1.12B. That’s a YoY improvement of 29%, so growth continues to be solid. Their EPS is still negative, so they are burning cash, but this is not uncommon for early stage, growth-oriented companies. The good news is that their investment into R&D and sales has scaled up by almost a factor of six since FY2014. That’s how you fuel growth. How about share price? Well, since TEAM’S IPO in late 2015, the share price has grown from $27.67 to its current level of $133.36, a whopping 382% improvement in a little over three and a half years. All in all, that’s how you spell growth, and I think there is a lot more to come for TEAM.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

[BlueWolf]

Bought IIPR

Bought some IIPR today. I did my due diligence, and I liked what I saw. This is my first Cannabis play.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA,OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

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[Louetta]

Bought some IIPR today. I did my due diligence, and I liked what I saw. This is my first Cannabis play.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA,OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

_{Bold=Write Up Available}

Gosh. Wonder how many cannabis stocks pay a dividend.

[billyjoe]

Gosh. Wonder how many cannabis stocks pay a dividend.

"Ask and ye shall receive" God


Louetta, Vectorvest lists 220 cannabis stocks. IIPR is the only one that pays a dividend. Also IIPR is the only one with a "buy" rating with 60 listed as "hold" and 159 as "sell". Not as great an industry as hype would suggest.

------------------billy