Stocks for the Long Term

[Louetta]

"Ask and ye shall receive" God


Louetta, Vectorvest lists 220 cannabis stocks. IIPR is the only one that pays a dividend. Also IIPR is the only one with a "buy" rating with 60 listed as "hold" and 159 as "sell". Not as great an industry as hype would suggest.

------------------billy

It's coming along some. There's a really nice shop near me.

http://www.healthypharms.org/

They even have their own payment app: CanPay since they can't take credit cards. It's medical only right now but no worries. I got a license for tennis elbow and I don't even play tennis.

[BlueWolf]

Hi Billy,

I used VectorVest many years ago. What do you think of it now? Does it help you with your trades?

[BlueWolf]

Got my eye on a couple of stocks right now, ZS and RVLV. I’m more interested in ZS as a possible long term investment, but RVLV intrigues me. ZS was a 2018 IPO and RVLV IPO’d just last month. Been looking at ZS for a while, always hesitating to pull the trigger. I did the same thing with TWLO a while back, and after I took a position, I was glad I did. I’m thinking ...

[Louetta]

Got my eye on a couple of stocks right now, ZS and RVLV. I’m more interested in ZS as a possible long term investment, but RVLV intrigues me. ZS was a 2018 IPO and RVLV IPO’d just last month. Been looking at ZS for a while, always hesitating to pull the trigger. I did the same thing with TWLO a while back, and after I took a position, I was glad I did. I’m thinking ...

RVLV looks interesting to me. Might be the industry they're in.

Prospectus shows three years of nicely increasing revenue and they are making money.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1746618/000119312519168155/d669074d424b4.htm#rom669074_10

[billyjoe]

RVLV does look good. How many competitors are in the same industry? Will they be able to outlast an onslaught of online retailers? They seem to have a great headstart . Time will tell.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-soaring-ipo-creates-1-173824918.html

---------------------billy

[BlueWolf]

Read the first 10 pages (summary) of the RVLV S-1. It’s very impressive.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1746618/000119312519157516/d669074ds1a.htm

[Louetta]

RVLV does look good. How many competitors are in the same industry? Will they be able to outlast an onslaught of online retailers? They seem to have a great headstart . Time will tell.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-soaring-ipo-creates-1-173824918.html

---------------------billy

Competition is of course a very valid point. It's not a very rigorous test but, since they say Revolve is using an influencer strategy, I searched on various sites for Kendall and Kylie bikinis (Kylie being the world's youngest self-made billionaire). Kohl's shows none. Walmart shows one top, no bottoms. Amazon shows a good inventory as does Revolve. Interestingly enough the prices are almost exactly the same (about $30 for each of the two pieces, about half regular price - now IS the time to buy swimwear). So methinks the key is in sticking to the kind of fashion stuff you can't get at mass marketers. (Amazon being an exception. They seem to be able to compete with anybody on anything.

[BlueWolf]

Competition is of course a very valid point. It's not a very rigorous test but, since they say Revolve is using an influencer strategy, I searched on various sites for Kendall and Kylie bikinis (Kylie being the world's youngest self-made billionaire). Kohl's shows none. Walmart shows one top, no bottoms. Amazon shows a good inventory as does Revolve. Interestingly enough the prices are almost exactly the same (about $30 for each of the two pieces, about half regular price - now IS the time to buy swimwear). So methinks the key is in sticking to the kind of fashion stuff you can't get at mass marketers. (Amazon being an exception. They seem to be able to compete with anybody on anything.

I agree with you wholeheartedly. The big differentiator between them and someone like Amazon is the “influencer strategy.” Though I admittedly understand very little about fashion, it sure seems like using an influencer strategy is spot on. They’re also appear to be using data analytics very astutely and have done a great job with their online UX which has led to a very high retention rate. According to their S-1, they “retained 89% of net sales from the prior year’s customers.” That’s pretty phenomenal customer loyalty, and certainly suggests that they are attracting the right people to their portal(s) and that their customers are pleased with their buying experience(s). I would think that the latter is very important in the world of fashion. This sure looks like a grower to me, but I do have to ask myself one question: Is this company built for long term growth? I can’t say that I honestly understand what it takes to carve out a large, long-term slice of the retail fashion market. Give me a pair of cargo pants, a pair of sneakers, and a t-shirt with a picture of a wolf on it and I consider myself well-dressed. 😉 So while my technical, not-fashion-informed take tells me this company looks good for both the near and long term, but I‘d be interested to hear any contrarian (sell-side?) takes.

[BlueWolf]

Writeup on TTD

TEAM

The Trade Desk Inc (TTD) is one of my favorite investments and has done very well for me in the time I have held it (well before I started my list in December, 201. TTD is engaged in providing a technology platform for ad buyers. Their product is a self-service platform that enables clients to purchase and manage data-driven digital advertising campaigns using their own teams. This platform allows clients to manage integrated advertising campaigns across various advertising formats, including display, video and social, and on a multitude of devices, including computers, mobile devices and connected TV, an approach that TTD refers to as “omnichannel.” Not only is the TTD platform capable of supporting almost any format you can think off, it cleverly uses data analytics to select the optimal channels for each client. Moreover, it is a dynamic platform that can adjust each campaign as the situation dictates. In short, this is targeted advertising on steroids.

So what has the market reception been for TTDs products and services? Well, in five years the company has grown revenue from $44.55M in FY2014 to $477.29M in FY2018. That’s a 971% increase! And they quickly went from burning cash to an EPS of $1.92 in FY2018. Growth has admittedly slowed for FY2019, but they are still on track for revenue of $512.61. One of things that most impresses me though is that in all six of its prior quarters TTD has beaten the street’s expectations, something that has helped propel the share price from the low $40’s to $250 today over the span of just 18 months. Obviously, TTD is onto something very big and I think they still have a lot of room to grow in an enormous market. TTD is slowly becoming a gold standard in the advertising industry, and I can easily see this company becoming a multi billion dollar juggernaut over the next several years. That’s the kind of story I like to invest in.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO
Bold = Write up available

Other stocks in which I have a position: ABMD, APPN, BIDU, BRK/B, CGNX, GH, MELI, NTNX, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, TREX, TTWO, VEEV, ZEN, ZM

Stocks in which I currently have high interest: CRSP, RVLV, ZS

[BlueWolf]

OK, I bit the bullet today and bought some ZS in one of my accounts. It’s a little bold given where we are overall, but I like the little bullish base on the daily and this company has been crushing it.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA,OKTA, TDOC,TEAM,TTD, TWLO, ZS
Bold = Write up available

[Louetta]

BYND down below $200 after announcing a secondary. Hasn't been that low since.....well, last Wednesday. (Also a 287% increase in Q2 revenue.)

[Louetta]

Read the first 10 pages (summary) of the RVLV S-1. It’s very impressive.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...669074ds1a.htm

Bought a 1/2 position ($26.1367) on today's 6 month earnings report. I interpret increases in sales, etc., as decent but not the kind of outrageous stuff people often demand in what they perceive to be a growth stock. Still like the influencer strategy and the variety of brands and what I think are relatively modest sums spent on marketing. Having recently been one, I can see youngish girls heading there to pick up the latest stuff without ever having to head to the mall. Must admit if the company was making widgets I most likely would never have looked twice at it.

P.S Currently about 75% of the IPO price and 55% of the high.

[BlueWolf]

Good luck with it, Louetta. This looks like it could be a really good entry here. I may have to free up some cash to grab some shares at these discounted prices. I’m still bullish on the company as are the analysts apparently (they are maintaining a buy/outperform rating).

I have a few underperformers in my long term portfolio, and I have been thinking about selling them so I can move the cash into some new stocks. In addition to RVLV, some stocks on my radar for possible long term buys include CRSP, CWBHF, FICO, IIVI, LITE, MASI, NVTA, and RDFN.

[BlueWolf]

I just joined you in RVLV. Sold off my NTNX. I think NTNX will make a comeback once it’s move to a subscription model starts bearing fruit, but I’m tired of waiting. It’s been a weed in the middle of a bunch of roses, so it’s time to do a little cultivation.

I’m adding RVLV to my “long term favorites” stock list that I started in December. This list now includes:
AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, RVLV, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO
Bold = Write up available

Other stocks in which I have a position: ABMD, APPN, BIDU, BRK/B, CGNX, GH, MELI, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, TREX, TTWO, VEEV, ZEN, ZM

[Louetta]

Don't see any news which would account for the drop in TTD today (Monday). In fact Citi or somebody raised their price target.