Technical Trades Anyone

[BlueWolf]

Based on the NASDAQ, the S&P and the Dow, I maintain my bullish bias, i.e. I will only be looking for long swing trades, and I will primarily be looking for long daytrade setups. I have included an annotated NASDAQ daily, although there isn’t much to see. In doing my scans this weekend, I didn’t see much of anything that I loved, which means I am unlikely to start the week with any swing trades, but I still turned up quite a few stocks for my start of the week watch list. These include:

BILI, BV, CLDR, COHR, DLPH, HCLP, HEI, HIIQ, IRBT, MZOR, NEOG, SSD, TREX, YNDX

A few of these are coming off hard downtrends, but I see some potential for short term bounces. Good luck in all your trading and investing.

NASDAQ daily chart:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/k4y37lc1x1qv62m/Photo%20Sep%2016%2C%2010%2053%2038%20AM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

Very bearish day today and the NASDAQ is sitting right on the edge of its regression channel. The retraces since March/April have been very shallow, so we are certainly due for something deeper.

[BlueWolf]

Do you want to see what a rocket ship chart looks like? Check out TLRY. 750% gain since it’s IPO two months ago. There’s gotta be a short in there somewhere, but the stock has shown no signs of slowing down so far.

TLRY daily chart:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ub5xfm15xp9qww0/Photo%20Sep%2018%2C%205%2038%2019%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[Louetta]

How about a 100 strike price put of Sept. 28 (9 days) for about $5.50 ($550 for 100 shares). Or better one further up mid-day tomorrow (it's bid after hours north of $170). Pretty full set of options for such a recent IPO.

[BlueWolf]

It popped another $70 today and has now become a ten bagger ... in 60 day’s! Louetta, it’s impossible to read a chart like this in order to guess its behavior, so buying a raw put is risky because we have no idea how much farther up it will rise. I would have never guessed today’s action. In order to limit risk, a long strangle or a straddle might be more effective. I’d be inclined towards a long strangle myself, but the problem is, this thing shot up so much today, they haven’t issued out of the money calls yet! Unbelievable. I think I’m just gonna watch for now, but it definitely interests me.

[Louetta]

Schwab is showing calls up to 310 but not for Friday's expiration. If they exist on the exchange mayhap your broker can do something for you even if they don't show on a home screen.

What you said is good advice. Anyway I bought a 10/19 $70 put for $6.40 ($640). Gives me 30 days but there must be a substantial collapse. The prices are truly frightening. Something $140 out of the money sounds ridiculous but one must risk several grand (doing it my way) for any reasonable position.

[BlueWolf]

Good luck with your trade. I’m very tempted because you’re right, a substantial collapse is coming. I just don’t know when. This stock reflects the irrationality of the stock market. This stock has a $19B (That’s right B as in Billion) market cap on $10M in quarterly revenue, negative cash flow, and a forward P/E of 2000. That’s absolute insanity. When this crashes, it’s going to come down hard. At least that’s what logic tells me. What good is logic with the stock market, though?

[BlueWolf]

What the heck, I’m trying a strangle.

[BlueWolf]

Another Cannibus-based rocket ship, IGC. 14 bagger in just two weeks. The valuations of these stocks is just nutso, but there’s no use arguing with the market. Just like TLRY, there has to be short in here somewhere soon.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/lrogq74w8fsstxc/Photo%20Oct%2002%2C%205%2055%2057%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

I wanted to short IGC so badly today after it’s little bounce up following the gap down, but wouldn’t you know it, it’s on the Hard-To-Borrow list at my broker. Oh well.

On another note, I’m thinning the long term positions in my retirement account right now. Over the last two weeks, I’ve been seeing a lot of bear scat. Yesterday, I noticed what appeared to be some rotation of money into gold. We’ll see if my fears are warranted. I hope I’m wrong, but I tend to err on the side of caution.

[Louetta]

Nevermind...

Missed the point entirely.

[BlueWolf]

Even a dog gets a warm piece of the sidewalk every now and then. My spidey senses proved correct and I was lucky I thinned my long term holdings when I did. I’m now 70% cash in my retirement account. I can buy back in when I think the correction is over, but we are definitely in some sort of a correction. I’ll post more in my weekly market sentiment this weekend, but the NASDAQ broke out of its regression channel with a vengeance, and the S&P also broke its channel. The Dow is still within its channel, but testing. Not sure what set all this off, but 10 year treasury notes hit their highest yield in seven years and 30 year bonds hit their highest yield in four years, all which seemed to attract the interest of investors who rotated money out of the market. I also read an article that claimed that speculators and hedge funds currently hold a record number of short positions, which doesn’t surprise me given the absurd valuations that many stocks have achieved over the last two years in particular. Just be careful with your investments and trades right now.

[BlueWolf]

Here’s a nice example of a short day trade that hit on one of my weekly watchers, ALRM, yesterday. Yesterday was a great day for shorts. I started the day expecting a little bit of an upward bounce, but when the futures started crashing early, I knew it was a day for shorting. Looks like we are getting a bounce today, but I am still bearishly biased.

5 Min Chart for ALRM:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/xvfg3th67jf9soa/Photo%20Oct%2009%2C%209%2013%2001%20AM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

Market still in a correction

If you are a long swing or a buy and hold trader, I continue to recommend staying out of the market. This correction is not over and has the potential to develop into something much worse. Either trade short or sit on your cash and wait for a better day.

[wifwif]

Thank you BlueWolf for this good recommendation. 100% agreed!