Rules for Pick of The Year (PoTY) 2022

[BlueWolf]

Gas has hit $7 for regular in San Diego already:

https://ibb.co/hfGKt7S

This is from downtown today.

Yup, it’s 6.99 for premium by me.

[jiesen]

Gas prices in CA

Gas has hit $7 for regular in San Diego already:

https://ibb.co/hfGKt7S

This is from downtown today.

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Oct 7, 2022

The indices popped up early in the week, hit the top of their regression channels, and then as if on cue, rolled over hard. If they stay true to form, we’re in the middle of another nasty leg down. As for our picks, the leaderboard changed slightly with Antioch’s GRBK leapfrogging over Antioch’s Dad’s AAPL to take over second and push AAPL into third. BillyJoe’s UTHR remained in first and is still our only pick in the green, although the margin of “greenness” is rather precarious at this point. Will this be the year in which we end up with a PotY contest with no picks in the green? Will the bear market continue into next year? Will gasoline prices soon reach $10 a gallon in CA? Will extraterrestrials land on the White House lawn and ask for directions? Stay tuned.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Oct 7, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 206.77		2.43%
2	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 22.49	20.00%	-14.54%
3	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 292.97		-16.55%
4	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 140.09	20.00%	-17.09%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 362.79		-19.36%
6	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 4.72		-23.71%
7	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 24.01		-24.76%
8	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 269.10		-25.88%
9	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 71.03		-31.28%
10	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 36.92		-35.61%
11	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 3.14		-35.92%
12	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 29.21		-37.93%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 34.82		-47.13%
14	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.35		-55.88%
15	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 11.35		-56.75%
16	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.64		-72.10%
17	Peanuts	OZON*	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 0.00		-100.00%
* - Delisted because of Russia sanctions

[peanuts]

Ah, poor Peanuts... got roasted!

My only consolation is that I do not own it for real. Otherwise, I'm hugging myself in a rocking chair.

[Phoenix7]

Hopefully Mr Market is in good health, and all goes well for him. His Picks are missed by me and everyone else , Mr M Do take care!

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 30, 2022

Ugh. The market based at the low and then proceeded to close the week with yet another big leg down. The really bad news is that there is still downside before the indices hit the bottom of their regression channels, and both the weekly and monthly charts are in areas of little to no technical support. Simply put, there is probably a lot more downside to come. As for the contest. Our stalwart, BillyJoe’s UTHR, continues to be our leader as well as the one and only decently performing stock. It remains our only pick both in the green and beating all three indices. Antioch’s Dad’s APPL and Antioch’s GRBK continue to hold down second and third place. Oh well, stay the course and we’ll see what happens from here.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 30, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 209.38		3.72%
2	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 287.30		-18.17%
3	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 138.20	20.00%	-18.21%
4	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 21.38	20.00%	-18.76%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 357.18		-20.61%
6	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 267.26		-26.38%
7	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 23.40		-26.67%
8	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 71.48		-30.84%
9	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 3.99		-35.44%
10	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 29.79		-36.70%
11	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 36.17		-36.92%
12	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 3.00		-38.78%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 35.84		-45.58%
14	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 12.00		-54.27%
15	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.52		-54.86%
16	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.70		-69.43%
17	Peanuts	OZON*	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 0.00		-100.00%

[jiesen]

Well, it was another lovely week for the market, and our picks got clobbered again. Our first place holder and sole pick in the green, BillyJoe’s UTHR, is hanging on by a thread. Our second and third place holders this week are Antioch’s Dad’s AAPL and Antioch’s GRBK. The market looks like it is nearing the bottom of it’s regression channel here, so I expect some sort of bounce this week unless we go into complete panic selling mode, which is a distinct possibility at this point. Let’s see what the winds blow this way, but as for the PotY contest this year, the die is cast. There will be no real winners this year.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 23, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 207.62		2.85%
2	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 150.43	20.00%	-10.97%
3	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 295.86		-15.73%
4	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 21.78	20.00%	-17.24%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 367.95		-18.22%
6	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 25.75		-19.30%
7	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 3.75		-23.47%
8	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 275.51		-24.11%
9	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 72.58		-29.78%
10	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 4.00		-35.28%
11	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 36.79		-35.84%
12	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 30.00		-36.25%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 35.54		-46.04%
14	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 11.20		-57.34%
15	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.03		-57.80%
16	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.65		-71.51%
17	Peanuts	OZON*	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 0.00		-100.00%
* - Delisted because of Russia sanctions

Ah, poor Peanuts... got roasted!

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 23, 2022

Well, it was another lovely week for the market, and our picks got clobbered again. Our first place holder and sole pick in the green, BillyJoe’s UTHR, is hanging on by a thread. Our second and third place holders this week are Antioch’s Dad’s AAPL and Antioch’s GRBK. The market looks like it is nearing the bottom of it’s regression channel here, so I expect some sort of bounce this week unless we go into complete panic selling mode, which is a distinct possibility at this point. Let’s see what the winds blow this way, but as for the PotY contest this year, the die is cast. There will be no real winners this year.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 23, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 207.62		2.85%
2	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 150.43	20.00%	-10.97%
3	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 295.86		-15.73%
4	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 21.78	20.00%	-17.24%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 367.95		-18.22%
6	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 25.75		-19.30%
7	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 3.75		-23.47%
8	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 275.51		-24.11%
9	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 72.58		-29.78%
10	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 4.00		-35.28%
11	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 36.79		-35.84%
12	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 30.00		-36.25%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 35.54		-46.04%
14	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 11.20		-57.34%
15	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.03		-57.80%
16	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.65		-71.51%
17	Peanuts	OZON*	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 0.00		-100.00%
* - Delisted because of Russia sanctions

[billyjoe]

UTHR hanging on by a thread.

--------------billy

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 16, 2022

Yet another week of thunder struck down the market this week and our picks paid for it. BillyJoe’s UTHR continues to be our only in-the-green pick and our leader. Minni17’s OGN and Antioch’s Dad’s AAPL hold down second and third respectively. There’s not much more to say at this point except “Ugh.”

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 16, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 218.11		8.04%
2	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 28.61		-10.34%
3	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 150.70	20.00%	-10.81%
4	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 308.05		-12.26%
5	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 23.00	20.00%	-12.60%
6	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 385.56		-14.30%
7	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 5.20		-15.86%
8	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 4.05		-17.35%
9	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 289.32		-20.31%
10	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 81.78		-20.88%
11	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 41.56		-27.52%
12	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 30.44		-35.32%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 39.50		-40.02%
14	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 11.98		-54.34%
15	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.30		-56.18%
16	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.74		-67.58%
17	Peanuts	OZON*	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 0.00		-100.00%
* - Delisted because of Russia sanctions

[Louetta]

Cramer recommended SPG, FRT and O tonight. I've had SPG for some time.

[BlueWolf]

BlueWolf, Me and Mrs. Billy's retirement accounts are dominated by dividend paying stocks. Lows were on June20th of this year. They are up 14.5% from that date and we have withdrawn about 1% in cash since June 20th.

-------------------billy

Dividend paying stocks are a good idea in a bear market, and a good way to ensure you always have some kind of income from your investments.

[billyjoe]

BlueWolf, Me and Mrs. Billy's retirement accounts are dominated by dividend paying stocks. Lows were on June20th of this year. They are up 14.5% from that date and we have withdrawn about 1% in cash since June 20th.

-------------------billy

[BlueWolf]

Well, folks, this is why I call them inflection points. I was hopeful that we might continue up and establish an uptrend, but Friday’s confirmed what common sense was telling me: The state of the economy is very bad and not likely to improve any time soon. What triggered this latest sell off? Well, to absolutely no one’s surprise, except maybe the delusional people who passed the “anti-inflation” bill, the CPI report was released and indicated hotter than expected inflation rates.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.1% in August versus expectations for a decline of 0.1%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to 0.6%, compared with the consensus for an increase of 0.3%. Annual inflation advanced 8.3% last month, slower than an 8.5% jump in July, but faster than the Street's view for an 8.1% increase. All of this was taken as very bad news by the market.

Comments by economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons pretty much nailed it: "Today's inflation report is a game changer in terms of Fed expectations. Yes, energy and food prices are moderating, but core pressure (remains) very stubborn. The July slowdown in core now looks like a one-off, rather than (the) beginning of a trend.”

I think that last statement sums up the recent up tick in the market. It looks like a one off rather than the beginning of an uptrend. So now, barring some good news, the market is probably going to challenge it’s prior pivot lows on both the daily (short term) and the weekly (longer term). Batten down the hatches, pickers, it’s very likely that there are more rough waters ahead.

[Louetta]

Charting is back up, so I went ahead and generated annotated daily and weekly charts for the NASDAQ (the other indices are similar). Bottom line? We are at inflection points on both the daily and weekly charts. What does that mean? It means that we could potentially be looking at both near term and longer term trend reversals. We’ll need confirmations, but the signs right now are good. I’m still apprehensive because of the state of the economy, but I think buying a little at these levels, should the market continue up on Monday, could produce some results. Because of the dangers right now, however, any positions I open will be carefully trail stopped.

Annotated NASDAQ Daily Chart as of close 9/10/22
https://www.dropbox.com/s/asjdoukfe0...02022.jpg?dl=0

Annotated NASDAQ Weekly chart as of close 9/10/22
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rxbzgkckuy...02022.jpg?dl=0

Interesting stuff.