Rules for Pick of The Year (PoTY) 2022

[BlueWolf]

Charting is back up, so I went ahead and generated annotated daily and weekly charts for the NASDAQ (the other indices are similar). Bottom line? We are at inflection points on both the daily and weekly charts. What does that mean? It means that we could potentially be looking at both near term and longer term trend reversals. We’ll need confirmations, but the signs right now are good. I’m still apprehensive because of the state of the economy, but I think buying a little at these levels, should the market continue up on Monday, could produce some results. Because of the dangers right now, however, any positions I open will be carefully trail stopped.

Annotated NASDAQ Daily Chart as of close 9/10/22
https://www.dropbox.com/s/asjdoukfe0...02022.jpg?dl=0

Annotated NASDAQ Weekly chart as of close 9/10/22
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rxbzgkckuy...02022.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 9, 2022

We had an up week, but it wasn’t enough to push any more picks into the green. We do now have three picks beating the indices, though. So the standings this week are BillyJoe’s steady pick UTHR in first and in the green, Minni17’s OGN moving into second and beating the indices, and Antioch’s Dad’s APPL in third and also beating the indices. I was going to share my insights on the market direction, but charting data was down when I wrote this, so I couldn’t do a detailed analysis. A cursory look at the indices’ dailies with another charting tool I have, however, seem to indicate that we are at a possible inflection point for the short term. In any event, with inflation still looming large and a large interest rate hike on the way, I am not optimistic about the market’s ability to sustain any kind of rally. So buckle up, hold tight, and stand fast while we see how the winds blow.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 9, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 223.48		10.70%
2	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 29.83		-6.52%
3	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 157.37	20.00%	-6.86%
4	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 322.28		-8.20%
5	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 5.65		-8.58%
6	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 24.01	20.00%	-8.76%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 406.60		-9.63%
8	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 307.09		-15.41%
9	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 85.97		-16.82%
10	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 3.80		-22.45%
11	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 44.08		-23.13%
12	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 34.50		-26.69%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 45.53		-30.87%
14	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.60		-43.88%
15	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 13.45		-48.74%
16	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.26		-56.42%
17	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.85		-62.97%

[Louetta]

"a seasoned veteran once told me that during a bear market there were only three things to invest in: Alcohol, fast food, and fashion."

That may refer to designer stuff. If you can afford to drop $5-15,000 on an evening dress mayhap you have enough salted away so economic trends don't affect you. But even Lululemon is doing well earnings wise despite the current economy and the recent stay at home culture. LULU might not be a bad buy here tho the year has been poor for the stock price.

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 2, 2022

Well, do you want the bad news or the bad news? That pretty much sums up the market last week. For the second week in a row we had bearish engulfing bars on all three of the major indices’ daily charts on Friday. This week, however, it was far more pronounced. Ugh. After the smoke cleared, that left us with only one pick in the green, BillyJoe’s UTHR in first, and two picks beating all three indices, add Antioch’s Dad’s AAPL in second. Minni17’s OGN, a one time leader, moved into third by the narrowest of margins. Again, looking at the longer term charts, I don’t think this bleeding is over. Better hunker down and stock up on toilet paper (Why is it that toilet paper seems to disappear during a crisis?). A long time ago, when I was a young whippersnapper of an investor, a seasoned veteran once told me that during a bear market there were only three things to invest in: Alcohol, fast food, and fashion. Why fashion I never figured out except to guess that during bad times, we all like to be drunk, fat, and trendy. Go figure. Anyway, good luck moving forward my fellow pickers. See you next week.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 2, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 222.91		10.42%
2	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 155.81	20.00%	-7.79%
3	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 313.76		-10.63%
4	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 28.50		-10.69%
5	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 23.46	20.00%	-10.85%
6	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 4.31		-12.04%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 392.24		-12.82%
8	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 5.27		-14.72%
9	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 295.17		-18.70%
10	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 78.53		-24.02%
11	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 35.31		-24.97%
12	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 38.41		-33.01%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 37.94		-42.39%
14	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.60		-43.88%
15	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 12.38		-52.82%
16	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.22		-56.66%
17	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.82		-64.34%

[Louetta]

It could be worse...you could have flown out to Dublin to root for Nebraska.

By the by I got down to Tufts last Spring for an outdoor track meet. Bet it was three years since because of the covid.

[mrmarket]

It could be worse...you could have flown out to Dublin to root for Nebraska.

[jiesen]

Well, it wasn’t really hard to see this coming. There simply isn’t any reason why the market should have a sustained rally given the current circumstances and events. Sure enough, after Congress passed a massive spending bill that is ironically designed to curb inflation, after a student loan forgiveness program that could cost anywhere from $250-$500 billion was announced, and after a rate hike that pundits say could be as high as 130 basis points was announced by the Fed, the market collapsed in exhaustion on Friday with the Dow crashing a massive 1000 pts and the NASDAQ following suit with a crash of 500 pts.

Obviously, our contest picks were effected, and pretty severely. We went from having three picks in the green to one. BillyJoe’s UTHR, our only green pick, held on to first place following the market bloodbath. Antioch’s GRBK and Antioch’s dad’s AAPL held on to second and third place respectively. The patterns on the three indices look remarkably similar with Friday’s giant red bar engulfing the prior bar on all three indices. If you look at the longer term charts, all this is consistent with a continued downtrend. I created a weekly chart for the Dow to illustrate this.

Annotated Weekly Dow Chart

https://www.dropbox.com/s/vetobuphuqyee2t/Dow%20Aug%2026%2C%202022.jpg?dl=0

All I can say is buckle your seatbelts. We may get a little bounce in a day or two after Friday’s bloodbath, which is a typical market reaction to a massive sell off and a great opportunity for a little day or scalp trading. Longer term, however, I still don’t think we’ve seen the end of the bear.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 26, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering Riverbabe And Karel
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 215.30		6.65%
2	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 25.50	20.00%	-3.10%
3	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 163.62	20.00%	-3.16%
4	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 5.98		-3.24%
5	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 29.69		-6.96%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 322.93		-8.02%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 405.31		-9.91%
8	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 4.31		-12.04%
9	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 40.34		-14.28%
10	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 307.44		-15.32%
11	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 82.06		-20.61%
12	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 44.31		-22.72%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 39.56		-39.93%
14	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.60		-43.88%
15	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 12.67		-51.71%
16	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.72		-53.66%
17	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.92		-59.83%

indeed, this does not bode well at all. anyway, congrats Billyjoe for staying green through it all!

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 26, 2022

Well, it wasn’t really hard to see this coming. There simply isn’t any reason why the market should have a sustained rally given the current circumstances and events. Sure enough, after Congress passed a massive spending bill that is ironically designed to curb inflation, after a student loan forgiveness program that could cost anywhere from $250-$500 billion was announced, and after a rate hike that pundits say could be as high as 130 basis points was announced by the Fed, the market collapsed in exhaustion on Friday with the Dow crashing a massive 1000 pts and the NASDAQ following suit with a crash of 500 pts.

Obviously, our contest picks were effected, and pretty severely. We went from having three picks in the green to one. BillyJoe’s UTHR, our only green pick, held on to first place following the market bloodbath. Antioch’s GRBK and Antioch’s dad’s AAPL held on to second and third place respectively. The patterns on the three indices look remarkably similar with Friday’s giant red bar engulfing the prior bar on all three indices. If you look at the longer term charts, all this is consistent with a continued downtrend. I created a weekly chart for the Dow to illustrate this.

Annotated Weekly Dow Chart

https://www.dropbox.com/s/vetobuphuqyee2t/Dow%20Aug%2026%2C%202022.jpg?dl=0

All I can say is buckle your seatbelts. We may get a little bounce in a day or two after Friday’s bloodbath, which is a typical market reaction to a massive sell off and a great opportunity for a little day or scalp trading. Longer term, however, I still don’t think we’ve seen the end of the bear.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 26, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 215.30		6.65%
2	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 25.50	20.00%	-3.10%
3	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 163.62	20.00%	-3.16%
4	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 5.98		-3.24%
5	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 29.69		-6.96%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 322.93		-8.02%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 405.31		-9.91%
8	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 4.31		-12.04%
9	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 40.34		-14.28%
10	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 307.44		-15.32%
11	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 82.06		-20.61%
12	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 44.31		-22.72%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 39.56		-39.93%
14	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.60		-43.88%
15	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 12.67		-51.71%
16	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.72		-53.66%
17	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.92		-59.83%

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 19, 2022

Fee Fie Foe Fum, boy oh boy is this market dumb. After building a little momentum over the last couple of weeks, the market retraced this week, undoing some of its recent gains. As I said last week, we had reached a point at which a market rollover would be consistent with a long term downtrend on the monthly and weekly charts. Personally, I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet. We could be looking at a very long term bear market. Then again, the market unhappiness is a kind of understandable. Runaway inflation … a declining GDP … the Fed printing money by the bucket full … the government spending money like a drunken sailor … OPEC putting the squeeze on … a devastating war in the Ukraine … Russia threatening to make the conflict nuclear … China on the brink of invading Taiwan … oh, and an ongoing global pandemic with the threat of a second one looming. I mean, what’s not to like? Ok, Ok, back to the contest.

We had a little shakeup again this week with BillyJoe’s UTHR retaking the lead it had held for quite a while. In second and third are Antioch’s GRBK and Antioch’s Dad’s APPL, both of which have a 20% penalty on them. Impressive. These three pick are currently our only three picks both in the green and beating the market. We have two other picks beating the market and hovering around break even that might just shake things up in the coming weeks. After that? Well, not so good, but don’t give up hope. We have already seen some wild and rapid moves, and I think we might just see some more.

Good luck to all pickers. Stay the course.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 19, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 224.44		11.18%
2	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 27.01	20.00%	2.64%
3	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 171.52	20.00%	1.51%
4	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 6.16		-0.32%
5	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 30.66		-3.92%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 337.04		-4.00%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 422.14		-6.17%
8	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 322.86		-11.07%
9	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 4.35		-11.33%
10	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 41.35		-12.13%
11	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 86.13		-16.67%
12	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 43.37		-24.36%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 42.68		-35.20%
14	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.60		-43.88%
15	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 13.24		-49.54%
16	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 8.00		-51.98%
17	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.98		-57.21%

[BlueWolf]

This space for rent

Oops, my standings double posted for some reason. Since we can’t delete posts, I just zeroed out this duplicate.

[BlueWolf]

Nice work Wolfie

Thank you, huge one!

[mrmarket]

In case anyone is interested, I am doing a mock portfolio of our picks again this year. I basically allocated $2,000 to each position. So, with 14 picks, this basically created a $28K portfolio. We’re not doing as good this year as we did last year, down 12.88% on the year. Here is the portfolio:

2022 PotY Mock Portfolio As of 8/12/2022 (~ $2000 positions)
Stock	Open	Shares	Short/Long	Cost	Close	Value	Gain	Gain %
AAPL	$140.81	14	Long	$ 1971.34	$ 172.10	$ 2409.40	$438.06	22.22%
AUPH	$16.66	120	Long	$ 1999.20	$ 8.42	$ 1010.40	-$988.80	-49.46%
DOCN	$57.34	35	Long	$ 2006.90	$ 48.76	$ 1706.60	-$300.30	-14.96%
GBTC	$26.24	76	Long	$ 1994.24	$ 15.22	$ 1156.72	-$837.52	-42.00%
GRBK	$21.93	91	Long	$ 1995.63	$ 30.36	$ 2762.76	$767.13	38.44%
HZO	$47.06	42	Long	$ 1976.52	$ 41.22	$ 1731.24	-$245.28	-12.41%
IPA	$6.18	324	Long	$ 2002.32	$ 5.51	$ 1786.11	-$216.21	-10.80%
OGN	$31.91	63	Long	$ 2010.33	$ 30.99	$ 1952.37	-$57.96	-2.88%
OZON	$20.67	97	Long	$ 2004.99	$ 11.60	$ 1125.20	-$879.79	-43.88%
QDEL	$103.36	19	Long	$ 1963.84	$ 84.09	$ 1597.71	-$366.13	-18.64%
RBLX	$65.86	30	Long	$ 1975.80	$ 51.15	$ 1534.50	-$441.30	-22.34%
SFT	$2.29	873	Long	$ 1999.17	$ 1.23	$ 1073.79	-$925.38	-46.29%
TLPPF	$4.90	408	Long	$ 1999.20	$ 5.65	$ 2305.20	$306.00	15.31%
UTHR	$201.87	10	Long	$ 2018.70	$ 217.10	$ 2171.00	$152.30	7.54%
Totals				$ 27,918.18		$ 24,323.00	-$3,595.18	-12.88%

Nice work Wolfie

[BlueWolf]

2022 PotY Mock Portfolio As of 8/12/2022

In case anyone is interested, I am doing a mock portfolio of our picks again this year. I basically allocated $2,000 to each position. So, with 14 picks, this basically created a $28K portfolio. We’re not doing as good this year as we did last year, down 12.88% on the year. Here is the portfolio:

2022 PotY Mock Portfolio As of 8/12/2022 (~ $2000 positions)
Stock	Open	Shares	Short/Long	Cost	Close	Value	Gain	Gain %
AAPL	$140.81	14	Long	$ 1971.34	$ 172.10	$ 2409.40	$438.06	22.22%
AUPH	$16.66	120	Long	$ 1999.20	$ 8.42	$ 1010.40	-$988.80	-49.46%
DOCN	$57.34	35	Long	$ 2006.90	$ 48.76	$ 1706.60	-$300.30	-14.96%
GBTC	$26.24	76	Long	$ 1994.24	$ 15.22	$ 1156.72	-$837.52	-42.00%
GRBK	$21.93	91	Long	$ 1995.63	$ 30.36	$ 2762.76	$767.13	38.44%
HZO	$47.06	42	Long	$ 1976.52	$ 41.22	$ 1731.24	-$245.28	-12.41%
IPA	$6.18	324	Long	$ 2002.32	$ 5.51	$ 1786.11	-$216.21	-10.80%
OGN	$31.91	63	Long	$ 2010.33	$ 30.99	$ 1952.37	-$57.96	-2.88%
OZON	$20.67	97	Long	$ 2004.99	$ 11.60	$ 1125.20	-$879.79	-43.88%
QDEL	$103.36	19	Long	$ 1963.84	$ 84.09	$ 1597.71	-$366.13	-18.64%
RBLX	$65.86	30	Long	$ 1975.80	$ 51.15	$ 1534.50	-$441.30	-22.34%
SFT	$2.29	873	Long	$ 1999.17	$ 1.23	$ 1073.79	-$925.38	-46.29%
TLPPF	$4.90	408	Long	$ 1999.20	$ 5.65	$ 2305.20	$306.00	15.31%
UTHR	$201.87	10	Long	$ 2018.70	$ 217.10	$ 2171.00	$152.30	7.54%
Totals				$ 27,918.18		$ 24,323.00	-$3,595.18	-12.88%

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 12, 2022

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise! We have a new leader! Congrats to Antioch and his pick GRBK, which has taken over first place even with the penalty. Good picking, Antioch. In second place, and making a real contest of it, is Mr. Market’s TLPPF. Nice picking yourself, huge one. In third place is BillJoe’s UTHR, a steady pick that was in first place for an extended period. Congrats to our first three picks and Antioch’s Dad for having picks that are both in the green and beating the market.

As for the future, the daily charts suggest that we have broken the market’s down trend, but longer term weekly and monthly charts suggest that we may not be out of the woods yet as far as the bear goes. If this uptick was merely a bounce in a longer term mega-trend, and if the market is going to roll over again within that trend, we are currently near the inflection point at which it would do it. So watch closely my picking friends and stay tuned and alert.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 12, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 30.360	20.00%	15.37%
2	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 5.650		15.31%
3	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 217.100		7.54%
4	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 172.100	20.00%	1.85%
5	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 30.990		-2.88%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 337.830		-3.77%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 427.100		-5.07%
8	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 330.390		-9.00%
9	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 5.513		-10.80%
10	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 41.220		-12.41%
11	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 48.760		-14.96%
12	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 84.090		-18.64%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 51.150		-22.34%
14	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 15.220		-42.00%
15	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.600		-43.88%
16	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 1.230		-46.29%
17	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 8.420		-49.46%

[jiesen]

Not just holding, but adding on during the dip. From 4200 down to a 3900 S&P I was adding more and more into the market, so I've come out ahead because of the dips!