Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

Looking back on 2009

Well, 2009 was not my lucky year from a tools view of things. My database broke and Moneycentral decided to ditch its advanced screener, so with other things even more important than investing craving my attention I was pretty much out of the game. But look at the totals over 2009:

QHF: 21.47 (+54.8%)
QQQQ: 26.16 (+47.5%)
QHF-: 20.33 (+27.5%)
IWM: 21.81 (24.3%)
SPY: 20.95 (+19.9%)

The markets made a roaring comeback and my fund is top of the list in results for the year. It has still some 50% to gain to get back to year end 2007, however. The robust results, without much interfering by me, show how good my picks really are, even if I am no DD hero like $$$ Mr. Market $$$. Which makes me really sorry to scrap my Moneycentral screens.

I have new screens, on the US screener on ADVFN.com. We’ll see how good those are. I’ll post some picks tomorrow. How are the individual stocks doing since I bought them?

VALE, up 22% since 8/27, 2007
MTL, up 30% since 9/4, 2007
SID, up 25% since 12/3, 2007
DNR, down 53% since 1/7, 2008, stagnating since 5/8, 2009
AAPL, up 42% since 1/22, 2008
ATW, down 16% since 1/28, 2008
POT, down 28% since 3/2, 2008, stagnating since 5/29, 2009, but showing signs of life
BUCY, up 8% since 3/31, 2008
APA, down 20% since 4/7, 2008
LNN, down 62% since 4/14, 2008, stagnating since 8/14, 2009, but showing some signs of life.
EXM, down 78% since 4/15, 2008, stagnating since 5/29, 2009
PBR, down 25% since 4/21, 2008
URBN, down 8% since 9/8, 2008
TSYS, up 2% since 4/14, 2009, stagnating since 4/14, but showing some signs of life.
MYGN, down 41% since 4/20, 2009, stagnating since 4/20.

The stagnating stocks show no uptrend since the date mentioned and are candidates for replacement. The stagnating stocks with ‘signs of life’ are the least urgent candidates for replacement. We’ll see what 2010 brings!

Regards,

Karel

[skiracer]

karel,
I tried to pm you but it wouldn't go thru. again, something about the token having expired. this situation is frustrating and the only thing i can think of that might work is that you completely delete my history and wipe me off of your records then I will come back and register again with a new username and password. can we please try this to see if it works. please either try to pm me or post here on your thread to let me know that you are going to do it so i'll know when it is going to take place. thanks.

[Karel]

ski, what about trying a new account first? That should work out the same. I hope it works for you.

Regards,

Karel

[skiracer]

ski, what about trying a new account first? That should work out the same. I hope it works for you.

Regards,

Karel

ok, but how do i go about doing that from this computer. everytime i come to the site i'm already logged in and i get that welcome skiracer the last time you visited was....

[Lyehopper]

Switch browsers!!!!

Ski... I think that if you ditch "MS Internet Explorer" (which is a POS).... and start using "Mozilla FireFox" your troubles will be over....

Just click on the "FREE DOWNLOAD" button.... and stop being so damm'd hardheaded. This has to be the fifth or sixth time this has been offered here as a solution to your problems.

http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/upgrade.html

[skiracer]

Ski... I think that if you ditch "MS Internet Explorer" (which is a POS).... and start using "Mozilla FireFox" your troubles will be over....

Just click on the "FREE DOWNLOAD" button.... and stop being so damm'd hardheaded. This has to be the fifth or sixth time this has been offered here as a solution to your problems.

http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/upgrade.html

[B]well i guess it took another hardheaded SOB like yourself to knock it thru this hardhead to get it done. must have been the IE browser because it's working fine now and plenty faster. thank you lye. and along with the browser change comes a new username "belaruse" in honor of an old foxhold buddy of mine who is no longer with us but will always be remembered.

[Karel]

Back in the game? New Top 3: APKT, SPRD, AEZ

My portfolios have been languishing while I was in mourning for the demised Moneycentral screener. Here is where they stand now (percentages since the end of last year; see my previous post):

IWM: 25.76 (+18.1%)
QQQQ: 30.68 (+17.3%)
SPY: 23.07 (+10.1%)
QHF: 23.35 (+8.8%)
QHF-: 14.25 (-5.5%)

But after all this time perhaps I might have found a new love, the FinViz screener, thanks to hhansen. It's early days yet, and it will never replace the Moneycentral screener in my heart, but perhaps we can work something out.

Currently in my main portfolio (in the order I bought them): VALE MTL SID DNR AAPL ATW POT BUCY APA LNN EXM PBR URBN TSYS MYGN.
In my shotgun portfolio (buy this week's top 3 and hold 6 weeks): FLS CSIQ TTES GTE PQ ENS MANT URBN CRMT NXY BBG TSYS AIPC MYGN ALGT BRCD PLXS BYI.

In my main portfolio it is obvious that on average the stocks have not been doing too badly, but some did worse than others. Strong candidates for replacement are EXM, TSYS and MYGN.

We have a first top 3 from FinViz: APKT, SPRD and AEZ. From the three, I like APKT best. It will replace EXM. This week's top 3 will replace FLS, CSIQ and TTES in my shotgun portfolio.

Regards,

Karel

[mrmarket]

How dare these guys no longer offer a free screener! Lest they forget that www.mrmarketishuge.com is free free free!!!

[Karel]

How dare these guys no longer offer a free screener! Lest they forget that www.mrmarketishuge.com is free free free!!!

It was a very good one, perhaps that's why they dropped it... Incredibly flexible and with access to the fairly effective Stockscouter ratings. BTW, that last point might have been the real problem: they were giving away too much. But don't get me started or I'll cry in my beer. Again...

[TraderPlayerPerson]

Mix Fund!

Karel your Mix Fund looks like it just goes straight up and up and up! how are you managing that??

[Karel]

Hi,

currently I am not managing my funds. I was planning to start again Real Soon Now, and then my computer crashed.

My "official fund" is not doing badly either.

About the questions you PM'ed me about:

I use a "hold until the stock no longer gains" strategy. This adds the risk of a drop, as after all these are momentum stocks. Longer exposure than $$$Mr. Market$$$'s hit-and-run 15% means greater risk. That is why I take profits while the stock gains. I sell 1/5 of the position when the stock has gained 33%. This means that positions continue to grow $-wise. This not superior to other ways of taking gains, nor backtested, not guaranteed smart. It is just what I do. You could do the opposite: sell 4/5 and lock in a 6% gain, and let the remaining 1/5 run. Or whatever you like.

My strategy stalls in bear markets. That is all. I don't try to outguess the market. When things seem to be looking up again, I might reset my targets down to get back into the market more quickly.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Well, that was rather an hiatus. I have finally got my act together (again) after FinViz decided to paywall the spreadsheet export. Other things interfered too. But I am ready to go again. In the meanwhile, my Marketocracy funds have languished. They will be revived gradually and their stale stocks (read: all stocks) will be replaced. Currently my main fund, that tries to mimic $$$Mr. Market$$$'s approach, has a NAV of $14.47 and my other fund, with the shotgun approach (buy the top 3 and hold for 6 weeks) has a NAV of $16.42. I will report % gains/losses against these numbers. The first weeks/months the numbers will be polluted a bit by the old stocks, but no matter. For this week I picked AMWD (AMWD, OME, ATVI).

[Karel]

Hmm, I picked an interesting day to revive my portfolios!

[Karel]

May you live in interesting times, and all that. The screens picked up only 34 different stocks, which I will take as a sign not to pick any this week.

The buys of last week: AMWD: 78.14 (AMWD: 78.14, OME: 21,78, ATVI: 37.79)

I will start to give the results (YTD) when the portfolios are reasonably full of new picks.

Regards,

Karel

[antioch6]

Karel! I'm waiting for updates. It's fun to read the end of year portfolio results you write up.