Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

I was thinking how I could contribute just a bit of content to the board, and then I remembered by Marketocracy fund. It has been sleeping for five months now, so why not just revive it? Well, in the 5 months I left it alone it gained 10%, so perhaps the fund doesn't really need my supervision The idea is to show how a portfolio of stocks (the fund) is doing.

OK. Currently I have 18 stocks in the fund: ASFI, BLUD, CMTL, COCO, DRL, FPIC, ITLA, JOSB, MBT, MED, MSL, PVTB, SFFS, TTWO, USNA, VNBC, WDC, WSFS

I aim for 20. I don't want the hassle of watching with eagle eyes which of my stocks makes the 15%, so I'll visit my fund in the weekend, and when I see one or more underperformers, I'll throw out the worst and get a new one. If I don't, I just post the new total. I'll pick stocks using my version of MrMarket's model, with an extra filter for volume. The "fund" I control has $1.641.000 to invest, at the moment, so very thinly traded stocks just don't make sense. And I won't do too much due diligence, just a check to see if the stock really is making money.

Well, MED has been doing badly, so I'll swap it for ECPG to show my good intentions. I am two stocks down, which I will remedy when I see two picks I like.

And the current total is $16.41. It is supposed to be the current price of the fund. I could also use the asset total ( $1,640,880.42 ), but that is a lot of numbers. And you'll find my fund at http://tinyurl.com/2oeg9

Regards,

Karel

[MEA_1956]

Hello My Friend

Good day Karel, I do believe you have hit the nail on the head with your latest IDEA of shareing your thoughts with the group. This is close to where I'm at with the HOWLING. I'm not tring in be egotistical when I make my post, just tring to share my info. with the group.

At the present time my longs are at 40.0 + % and my in and out is at 4.0%. That's wrong, I sold off my TRMM today, so my in & out is somewhere in the 30% RED ZONE.

Look forward to reading your posts and hope to hear from you on the HOWLING some weakend. Best Reguards ====> MEA

[IIC]

Hey...Nice Job on the color MEA

[MEA_1956]

Thanks

Hey...Nice Job on the color MEA

Left the VAC. in the closet this weekend and spent sometime in my corner.

[Karel]

Well, from Wednesday's 16.41 the fund now is at 16.57. Not bad. You'll find my fund at http://tinyurl.com/2oeg9

MED got out for 8.84. I bought it 10/17/03 for $13.98, so that is a return of -37%
ECPG got in for 16.70 and started with -1.8%. BTW: MED was down too, but a little less.

I'll throw out SFFS, which was overdue, and in go NIHD, NFI, and GMR, the last two to bring the total to 20 stocks.

Did I warn everybody that if you want to invest in these stocks, you only have yourself to blame? If Yes, then OK; if No, then you know it now.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

I skipped a beat and so did my (paper money) fund: 15.80 now, or -4.7% in two weeks. One of the greatest culprits is NFI, which I bought at 60+. It now stands at 40 or so. Is there a prize for bad timing? Then I want to claim it!

I announced that the fund would buy GMR, but couldn't, due to lack of funds. So in got NIHD, for 36.33, and NFI, for 60.05. Out got SFFS, as announced. The fund got 14.52 for it, for a 11.5% gain overall.

Now I want to get rid of CMTL, and to buy DECK, and PKZ too, as I am still a stock short. NFI looks ridiculous at this price, so I'll cuddle it just a bit longer.

Regards,

Karel

[Dave]

There were some bad articles and pr's pertaining to owning REITs in general, which hurt NFI, as well as NCEN, which recently voted to become a REIT. I don't know all the pros and cons of REITs, other than they pay huge dividends, but that would certainly hurt cash available for expansion...

-Dave

[mimo_100]

Question for Karel re settings

Karel,

in,

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4453&highlight=#4453 I asked:

Besides the fact that my first post was sorted incorrectly, my table wraps around, that is not all columns are on the first line of display. Is there a setting that makes the viewing area larger (wider)? I just deleted my av to see if that would make a difference, and it does not.

You wrote: Errm, you caught me when I was editing my reply

I never did read a reply. Is there any setting that I can change? Thanks.

[Karel]

Well, my fund is at 15.84 now. NFI dropped another 10% or more to -42%. I still don't drop it, but that is also because I want to get rid of WDC first. I'll replace WDC by KCS.

CMTL got sold for 20.72, or a loss of 30.5%. PKZ got in for 29.92, DECK for 30.85.

3 stocks closed the week 5% over the last high: COCO, BLUD and NIHD. NIHD is 3 weeks old and stands at about +9%; the other two are older and stand at about +80% and +40%, respectively.

Regards,

Karel

PS: mimo_100, I answered you here

[billyjoe]

Karel, Do you have a minimum volume required for a stock to be considered in your fund? Do you have any strict sell signals such as 3 consecutive days down on increased volume? What is your goal for yearly gain? Thanks,
billyjoe

[Karel]

billyjoe, I filter for a daily dollar volume of $500,000 (average). I don't have strict sell signals. Your example makes me shudder! No, I look at my stocks each weekend, and that is it. But I "expect" my stocks to make better than 50% / year, and when they fall below that line, they run the risk of getting sold. This is where the highs come in. I expect a certain return. When a stock closes the week 5% over the last "high" and above the expected return, I use that new close as the new reference point for the expected returns.

I know I am buying in an updraft and likely to sell in a downdraft this way, but we'll see.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Good grief! The average stock in my fund lost 4.5% this week! Four stocks lost more than 10%: COCO, USNA, MBT, NIHD, and DECK. Errm, that's five stocks Only three stocks were up, and one of them, BLUD, no less than 14%, a new "5% higher weekly close". The fund dropped to 15.16, or a drop of 4.3% for the week. QQQ dropped more, SPY dropped less, so who am I to complain.

What to do? Just go on. NFI dropped again; there is a SEC Informal Inquiry into NFI, that may be a reason. But we'll give NFI a bit more time (I won't sell in under 6 weeks), as there are still enough candidates to drop. TTWO has had enough time, made us a profit, but is giving back too much. It will be replaced by RUSHB.

WDC got sold for 8.95, a 21% loss in 5 months. KCS was bought for 12.23. Its 1.7% loss since then was one of the bright spots of the week.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Just to keep the score: the fund stood at 14.81 (14.37 after yesterday!). The pickings are slim after yesterday, but SFY looks nice enough. USNA will have to go, just like TTWO: it is giving back too much.

The port got out of TTWO for 28.66, a 33% gain in 7 months. RUSHB got in for 13.57.

Somewhere I found this quote; I think it was supposed to go in this thread:

Is this a case where you follow yourself to see how far backwards you are going. My in and out port has fell from 14% to the red zone this last week, so don't fell so down Karel, were all in the same Market.

MEA, thanks for the support. I am not really feeling down though, I am just keeping score. I don't mind to score losses once in a while, because I expect to get over them again.

Regards,

Karel

[jiesen]

great expectations

that's the spirit, Karel!

I hope I can achieve the same level of Nirvana someday.

[Karel]

Well, we're still in Nirvana

The fund is at 14.66. That's not too bad, seeing the market action in the previous week. We had a very mixed bag, with week results varying from -6.5% (DECK) to +22% (FPIC). We're still spring cleaning, and another stock that was overdue is ITLA. It will be replaced by BXG. Since more than half of my stocks are over 5% of my total portfolio value, I need to sell off one. The highest in percentage is PVTB, so I'll sell off a part of that one.

The port got out of USNA for 24.78, a 114% gain in 6 months. SFY was bought for 19.90.

Regards,

Karel