Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

A bit late, due to the flu or something, but here's the report for my Marketocracy fund QHF. What am I trying to prove with this fund? That a Buy-And-Hold-A-Bit-Longer strategy might just work for $$$Mr.Market$$$ stocks. I think last year proved my point already: I let the portfolio drift for a year (from pure laziness, not from scientific interest), and it was up 20%. I just monitor the stocks at their weekly close. I note when they add 5% to the last high. If a stock fails to add at least 5% in 13 weeks, it gets dumped.

This weeks numbers:

Fund: 24.81 (+3%)
SPY: 23.80 (+.2%)
QQQQ: 24.49 (+.7%)
IWM: 24.29 (+1.1%)

The top three this week: URBN +13.1%, UPL +9.1%, RUSHB +7.3%. The bottom three: TNP -3.9%, BXG -2.4%, WSFS -1.3%

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

Cooool.... I'm watching you here dude.... I like it.

[Karel]

Amazing! My Marketocracy fund actually gained .4% for the week. The markets did worse, although the small caps were hurt a lot less than the big caps. See the numbers:

Fund: 24.90 (+0.4%)
SPY: 23.30 (-2.1%)
QQQQ: 23.51 (-4.0)
IWM: 24.23 (-0.2%) <== Russell 2000

Top 3: EPEX +7.9%, UPL +7.0%, KCS +4.0%
Bottom 3: URBN -7.3%, DECK -7.1%, BXG -6.2%

Actually the average stock dropped .25% this week, but the big gains were in relatively overweight positions. That is as it should be

Now what do we see here? One stock failed to profit from its extra lease of life and didn't add (another) 5% in the last 13 weeks. MSL is the culprit, and it will have to go. My approximations of $$$Mr.Market$$$'s method brought up BR, and that will become its replacement.

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

Karel is huuuuugge!

[Karel]

New highs for my marketocracy fund QHF, my entry for the Portfolio of the Year contest. In this fund, I try to hold stocks found with a $$$Mr.Market$$$ strategy until they have lost steam. A new high is nice, but did the fund beat the market? Not quite. The funds +2.2% beat SPY (+2.1%) and QQQQ (+2.1%), but lost to IWM (+3.7%). Assuming those ETF's to be funds with a NAV of 23.03 at the start of the year, like QHF, we get:

My fund: 25.46
SPY: 23.78
QQQQ: 24.00
IWM: 25.12

The top 3 performers: BLUD +11%, EPEX + 10.2%, JLG +7.8%
The bottom 3: UPL -3.8%, KCS -2.6%, TSO -1.8%

Three stocks set a new high over 5% more than the last highest weekly close: BLUD, EPEX and JLG. A stock needs to set such a new high before 13 weeks are out, or it is supposed to have "lost steam". Last week MSL was dropped for that reason, but due to low volume the stock is still present in the portfolio. About 2/3 has been sold up till now. This week BXG fails the criterion, and it has to go. Because we wanted to trim down to 15 positions of about 6%, BXG will not get a replacement.

BR had a nice start, up 2%, but during the week I discovered that BR is being taken over. I'll drop it and take GI instead.

Are you still there? Thank you!

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

Karel.... YOU ROCK DUDE!!!!

[Karel]

Another quickie: QHF, my marketocracy fund, was down -1.8%, just like SPY, better than QQQQ (-2.8%) and worse than IWM (-1.4%). NAVs:

QHF: 24.99
SPY: 23.36
QQQQ: 23.32
IWM: 24.78

Top 3: DECK +3.0%, UPL +1.3%, KCS +1.2%
Bottom 3: URBN -7.7%, TSO -6.9%, FPIC -5.3%

MSL finally got sold, for 26.93 on average; a total gain of 69% in just over 3 years, or 18.2% annualized.
BXG was less trouble to sell. It went for 16.36; gain 57% in 20 months, or 30% annualized.
BR went for a small gain, 2% in 1 week, or 180% annualized
GI entered the fray at 68.86

No changes.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

From between the cardboard boxes:

QHF: 24.23
SPY: 23.94
QQQQ: 23.51
IWM: 25.32

The fund has dropped and the Russell 2000 zoomed past and now sits squarely in front. SPY is breathing in our neck and QQQQ not far behind. That is not why I started this fund!

Changes: 2/21: FPIC was replaced by GIL. FPIC showed a return of 108% in 28 months, or 37% annualized. Not bad. Now URBN gets dropped for "stalling". We want to reduce the number of stocks to 15 (currently 17), so no replacement this time.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

QHF: 24.31 (+0.3%)
SPY: 23.82 (-0.5%)
QQQQ: 23.62 (+0.5%)
IWM: 25.27 (-0.2%)

Nothing spectacular here, but not bad. The fund gained on IWM, the leader, and on SPY, and lost to QQQ, currently in last position.

Top 3: TNP +7.5%, JLG +7.1%, GIL +7.0%. JLG and GIL also set a new high weekly close (= more than 5% over the last high).
Bottom 3: GI -8.4%, BLUD -2.3%, VNBC -2.1%

URBN was sold for a total gain of 133%, or 61.5% annualized.

This week the fund will sell PVTB, and replace it with CIB.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Oh my!

QHF: 23.23 (-4.4%)
SPY: 23.78 (-0.2%)
QQQQ: 23.11 (-0.2%)
IWM: 24.96 (-1.2%)

My fund really got hammered this week. No problem, we're in this for the long haul. Let's hope the reason is that some picks were rather stale, by now. But the four picks from 2006 so far, JLG, GI, GIL and CIB, were on average down as much as the rest.

Top 3: WSFS +2.5%, RUSHB +1.4%, GIL -0.1%. Yes, number 3 is negative.
Bottom 3: EPEX -14.4%, KCS -11.9%, JLG -10.7%. JLG was the first 2006 pick, after a year of inactivity. JLG is still up over 18%.

PVTB was sold for a total gain of 206%, or almost 40% annualized. CIB was bought for 33.77

This week KCS is marked "stalling", and will not be replaced. This brings the total number of stocks held down to 15, my target.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

And QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks bounces back 3.2%. The fund beats all three indexes we compare it with, passes QQQQ and leaves last place.

QHF: 23.97 (+3.2%)
SPY: 24.16 (+1.6%)
QQQQ: 23.62 (+2.2%)
IWM: 25.57 (+2.4%)

Top 3: UPL +11.0%, VLO +8.1%, JLG +7.3%
Bottom 3: EPEX -6.0%, GIL -1.5%, VNBC -0.2%

This week WSFS, SFY and TNP are marked "stalling". I don't want to replace more than one stock per week, and TNP goes, as the development of its revenue and earnings look worst of the bunch. It will be replaced by TS.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

A moderately good week for QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks. The fund beats SPY and QQQQ, but not that dratted IWM (Russell 2000). The fund didn't recover yet completely from the drop I reported two weeks ago, but it is close. And the fund stood at over 25 near the end of january, so there is more work to do. SPY was passed this week and the fund now is in second place, compared to the indices. IWM, take care!

QHF: 24.22 (+1.0%)
SPY: 24.08 (-0.3%)
QQQQ: 23.54 (-0.3%)
IWM: 25.85 (+1.1%)

Top 3: DECK +9.5%, GI +7.5%, JLG 4.3%
Added to the +7.3% from previous week, JLG has made an amaaazing recovery.
Bottom 3: GIL -3.4%, RUSHB -1.7%, UPL -1.0%
Last week UPL was our winner with 11%, so a little correction is not surprising.

One stock closed the week 5% or higher than its previous record close, and sets a new record high: DECK

This week SFY, WSFS and TNP are marked "stalling". I don't want to replace more than one stock per week, and this time SFY will be dumped, to be replaced by GGB.

Last week TNP went for 39.00, a gain of 18.2%, or 10.5% annualized. That's not what I am playing for, and it is also lower than SPY (dividends included). TS entered the fund at 183.45.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

A nice week for QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks. The fund gained, beat SPY, but lost to QQQQ and IWM (Russell 2000).

QHF: 24.43 (+0.9%)
SPY: 24.01 (-0.3%)
QQQQ: 23.90 (+1.5%)
IWM: 26.22 (+1.4%)

Top 3: UPL +7.4%, TSO +5.2%, EPEX +4.7%
Bottom 3: RUSHB -6.2%, GIL -4.4%, TS -2.1
GIL and RUSHB also were in the bottom 3 the previous week.

No stock closed the week 5% or higher than its previous record close. That is a bit disappointing.

This week WSFS and VNBC are marked "stalling". I don't want to replace more than one stock per week, and this time WSFS will go. It will be replaced by DBRN.

Last week SFY went for 37.75, a gain of almost 90%, or 40.7% annualized. That is better! GGB entered the fund at 22.96.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

An excellent week for QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks. The fund gained 1.7%, and beat SPY, QQQQ and IWM (Russell 2000) with a wide margin. The fund is still #2, but the gap with #3 (now QQQQ) has widened, and the gap with #1 is closing. That is the way we like it!

QHF: 24.84 (+1.7%)
SPY: 23.96 (-0.2%)
QQQQ: 24.12 (+0.9%)
IWM: 25.89 (-1.3%)

Top 3: TS +9.4%, GGB +6.0%, BLUD +5.3%
TS was in the Bottom 3 last week
Bottom 3: CIB -4.2%, DECK -1.0%, EPEX -0.7%
Epex was in the Top 3 the previous week.

TS closed the week 5% or higher than its previous record close. Nice to see a new stock moving!

This week only VNBC is marked "stalling" and it will have to go. It will be replaced by NTRI.

Last week WSFS went for 61.90, a gain of 86%, or 20.4% annualized. That is acceptable. DBRN entered the fund at 24.30.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Two excellent weeks for QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks. The fund gained 0.6% in a down week and 4.8% last week, leaving SPY, QQQQ and IWM (Russell 2000) in the dust. The fund is still #2, but the gap with #3 (SPY again) has widened spectacularly, and #1 is within striking distance. This fund rocks!

IWM: 26.47 (-0.6%, +2.8%)
QHF: 26.19 (+0.6%, +4.8%)
SPY: 24.26 (-0.6%, +1.9%)
QQQQ: 23.94 (-0.5%, -0.2%)

These shiners and shamers are over two weeks:
Top 3: TS +16.8%, VLO +12.4%, GGB +8.4%
TS and GGB are really doing very, very well!
Bottom 3: GIL -3.5%, BLUD -0.7%, CIB +1.0%

A whole slew of stocks (8 from the 15) closed the week 5% or higher than their previous record weekly close: DECK, VLO, TSO, GI, TS, GGB, DBRN, and NTRI. The last 5 are "new" stocks (bought this year). I must be doing something right. Or this is a roaring bull, of course.

This week UPL is marked "stalling", but it will get some grace. The stock is really moving this last month.

Two weeks ago VNBC went for 29.92, a gain of 257%, or 48% annualized. That is perfect. NTRI entered the fund at 46.71.

Regards,

Karel