Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[jiesen]

Hooray for Karel!!!

[Karel]

No new top 3

What goes up must come down:

Week ending 2/13:
QHF: 14.16 (-4.6%; +2.1%)
QHF-: 15.83 (-3.5%; -0.8%)
QQQQ: 17.40 (-3.0%; -1.9%)
SPY: 15.56 (-4.8%; -11.0%)
IWM: 15.60 (-4.9%; -11.1%)

Hall of Fame: PBR +11.9%, LNN +1.1%, MTL -0.2% (one negative stock in the top 3!)
Hall of Shame: BUCY -13.7%, EXM -11.0%, SID -9.9%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3

What goes down can go further down, and my fund dropped to third place:

Week ending 2/13:
QHF-: 14.93 (-5.7%; -6.4%)
QQQQ: 16.51 (-5.1%; -6.9%)
QHF: 12.81 (-9.5%; -7.6%)
SPY: 14.55 (-6.5%; -16.8%)
IWM: 14.37 (-7.9%; -18.1%)

Hall of Fame: POT -2.4%, URBN -2.6%, BUCY -6.4% (no positive stocks at all!)
Hall of Shame: EXM -41.9%, CLF -21.4%, MTL -20.0%

EXM had bad news, I mean: even worse news. But I don't think quite to the tune of the loss in market value. (Yet.)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3

What goes further down can go still further down:

Week ending 3/6:
QHF-: 13.79 (-5.6%; -13.5%)
QQQQ: 15.04 (-4.4%; -15.2%)
QHF: 11.67 (-5.7%; -15.9%)
SPY: 12.96 (-6.8%; -25.9%)
IWM: 12.29 (-10.1%; -29.9%)

The relative outperformance of my funds is nice, but only relatively speaking ...

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3

And then the rollercoster has its nose skyward again:

Week ending 3/13:
QQQQ: 16.43 (+9.2%; -7.4%)
QHF-: 14.59 (+5.8%; -8.5%)
QHF: 12.64 (+8.3%; -8.9%)
SPY: 14.30 (+10.3%; -18.2%)
IWM: 13.75 (+11.9%; -21.6%)

My funds underperformed a bit this week.

Hall of fame: URBN +22.3%, POT +15.8%, BUCY +15.2%
Hall of shame: CLF +0.2%, GGB +3.5%, EXM +3.6% (All positive, but in a week like this not quite the scores we like to see.)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3

And that makes two up weeks in a row! And a rather good one for my fund too, especially as you realize that the picks are rather stale by now. Perhaps it had some catching up to do after last week's craziness. Anyway, my fund takes the lead.

Results for the week ending 3/20:
QHF: 13.17 (+4.2%; -5.0%)
QQQQ: 16.68 (+1.5%; -6.0%)
QHF-: 14.83 (+1.7%; -7.0%)
SPY: 14.42 (+0.8%; -17.5%)
IWM: 13.96 (+1.5%; -20.4%)

Hall of fame: MTL +17.6%, ATW +13.3%, DNR +9.0%
Hall of shame: EXM -2.0%, GGB -0.2%, POT -0.1% (only three stocks negative this week, and that barely.)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3

And that makes three up weeks in a row!! Not quite as good for my fund, but it still keeps the lead, just a bit shy of positive territory.

Results for the week ending 3/20:
QHF: 13.81 (+4.9%; -0.4%)
QQQQ: 17.62 (+5.6%; -0.7%)
QHF-: 15.44 (+4.1%; -3.2%)
SPY: 15.34 (+6.4%; -12.2%)
IWM: 14.98 (+7.3%; -14.6%)

Hall of fame: EXM +33.8%, CLF +31.8%, LNN +17.2% (and three more double digit gainers)
Hall of shame: URBN -4.6%, DNR -0.6%, ATW +0.4%
(EXM and ATW "changed hall'' this week)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Almost a week late:

And that makes four up weeks in a row!!!! A rally once in while is not a bad thing. My fund did well and still keeps the lead, and is now positive for the year! And so are QQQQ and the baseline fund. SPY dropped below IWM (Russell 2000) and now trails the lot.

Results for the week ending 4/3:
QHF: 14.53 (+5.2%; +4.8%)
QQQQ: 18.50 (+5.0%; +4.3%)
QHF-: 15.99 (+3.6%; +0.3%)
IWM: 15.94 (+6.4%; -9.1%)
SPY: 15.84 (+3.3%; -9.4%)

Hall of fame: MTL 17.0%, EXM +16.2%, GGB (and two more double digit gainers)
Hall of shame: LNN -4.8%, POT -4.3%, URBN +0.2%
(LNN dropped from fame to shame, EXM is again in the HoF and URBN again in the HoS)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3!!! NXY, BBG, TSYS

Almost a week late:

The rally still continues. My main fund did well, but the baseline fund is languishing a bit and went negative again.

Results for the week ending 4/10:
QHF: 14.94 (+2.8%; +7.7%)
QQQQ: 18.83 (+1.8%; +6.1%)
QHF-: 15.94 (-0.3%; -0.1%)
IWM: 16.29 (+2.2%; -7.1%)
SPY: 16.13 (+1.8%; -7.7%)

Hall of fame: MTL +18.0%, EXM +9.7%, ATW +6.9%
Hall of shame: CLF -0.5%, POT -0.2%, DNR +0.6%

Do we have a new top 3? Yes, I ran the (modified, looking for 6 month returns) screen and got more than enough to pick a long list. And the new Top 3 are NXY, BBG and TSYS. What to do with the current lot? It would be a pity to start selling stocks which are doing well, so I decided to reset each stock to January 1st, and then look to which of them were doing not so well. The laggards are GGB, APA, LNN, EXM, and CLF. I change them out from oldest to most recent acquisition, so GGB goes for TSYS. I guess I might well be going to be whipsawed by the market, but I am happy enough to get going again.

Likewise, in the baseline fund, PBR, APA and DAR get replaced by the new trio, NXY, BBG and TSYS.

All trades were on Tuesday, one day late, but not as late as this report.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: AIPC, MYGN, ALGT

Almost a week late:

And the rally still continued. My main fund did well, but the baseline fund is still weak.

Results for the week ending 4/17:
QHF: 15.27 (+2.2%; +10.01%)
QQQQ: 19.04 (+1.1%; +7.3%)
QHF-: 15.76 (-1.1%; -1.2%)
IWM: 16.68 (+2.4%; -4.9%)
SPY: 16.37 (+1.5%; -6.4%)

Hall of fame: LNN +28.6%, EXM +11.4%, MTL +9.7%
Hall of shame: TSYS -6.5%, PBR -5.2%, DNR +0.2%

Do we have a new top 3? Yes, the modified (looking for 6 month returns) screen returned more than enough stocks to pick a long list. And the new Top 3 are AIPC, MYGN and ALGT. Last week I marked GGB, APA, LNN, EXM and CLF as laggards. But recognizing that we are still in a bear market (my "normal" screen is still virtually empty) I prefer to be reluctant in selling. This leaves only CLF as sell candidate, to be replaced by MYGN.

Last week GGB was sold at 7.01, but with earlier sells that creamed off gains the average sell price is 9.71; 26.9% gain in just over 3 years, or 8.1% annualized. I am not complaining. TSYS entered the fray at 9.49 and lost a bundle.

In the baseline fund PBR, APA and DAR were sold for an average 57% loss. Ouch. None of these stocks made 15% or more, so the count remains at 37 15% winners from 143 closed trades, or 26%. This week CF, AGU and CMP get replaced by the new trio, AIPC, MYGN and ALGT.

All trades were on Monday, this report is a day late.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 49, avg +70.2%
Losers: 28, avg -22.6%
Total: 77, avg +36.4%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: TSYS, BBG, PLXS

And the rally finally ended with mixed results for the indices. My main fund was weak, as was the baseline fund. My main fund managed to keep first place, just ahead of QQQQ.

Results for the week ending 4/24:
QHF: 15.08 (-1.2%; +8.7%)
QQQQ: 19.26 (+1.2%; +8.6%)
QHF-: 15.44 (-2.1%; -3.2%)
IWM: 16.63 (-0.3%; -5.2%)
SPY: 16.29 (-0.5%; -6.8%)

Hall of fame: BUCY +4.0%, LNN +2.9%, RIO +2.1%
Hall of shame: MYGN -14.3% (in its first week), EXM -8.1%, DNR -4.0%

Do we have a new top 3? Yes, the modified (looking for 6 month returns) screen returned more than enough stocks to pick a long list. And the new Top 3 are TSYS, BBG and PLXS. There are no sell candidates in my main fund, so no changes.

Last week CLF was sold at 20.44, a -75.1% loss in just under a year, or -75.9% annualized. Ouch. MYGN was bought at 4.35 and lost even more than in its first week than TSYS last week.

In the baseline fund CF, AGU and CMP were sold for an average -53.4% loss. Ouch. None of these stocks made 15% or more, so the count remains at 37 15% winners from 146 closed trades, or 25.3%. This week POT, STLD and ATVI will be replaced by BRCD, PLXS and BYI.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 49, avg +70.2%
Losers: 29, avg -24.4%
Total: 78, avg +35.1%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new Top3

The previous week I said the rally had ended, but last week the rally refused to give up. My main fund was strong, as was my baseline fund. My main fund closed well over +10% for the year, QQQQ also topped 10%, my baseline fund is where it was on January 1st.

Results for the week ending 5/1:
QHF: 15.77 (+4.6%; +13.7%)
QQQQ: 19.65 (+2.0%; +10.8%)
QHF-: 15.44 (+3.3%; 0.0%)
IWM: 17.05 (+2.5%; -2.8%)
SPY: 16.52 (1.4%; -5.5%)

Hall of fame: BUCY +16.0%, EXM +15.4%, URBN +12.9%
Hall of shame: MTL -5.8%, ATW +0.3%, MYGN +0.4%

I didn't have time to run the screens, so we don't have a new Top 3.

In the baseline fund POT, STLD and ATVI were sold for an average -69.7% loss. Double ouch. None of these stocks made 15% or more, so the count remains at 37 15% winners from 149 closed trades, or 24.8%.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes)
Winners: 49, avg +70.2%
Losers: 29, avg -24.4%
Total: 78, avg +35.1%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

I am very very busy, and have no time for nothing. Just:

Th results for the week ending 5/8:
QHF: 16.42 (+4.1%; +18.4%)
QQQQ: 19.57 (-0.4%; +10.3%)
IWM: 17.82 (+4.5%; +1.6%)
QHF-: 16.07 (+0.8%; 0.8%)
SPY: 17.48 (+5.8%; =0.0%)

A moderate to good week, but my basline fund dropped a place.

Regards, and see you here end of May,

Karel

[Karel]

No new Top 3

I need more vacation! My fund is, like, totally on a roll! (Results are for 3 weeks and Year to Date.)

Results for the week ending 5/29:
QHF: 17.32 (+5.5%; +24.9%)
QQQQ: 20.23 (+3.4%; +14.0%)
QHF-: 16.58 (+3.2%; +4.0%)
IWM: 17.52 (-1.7%; -0.1%)
SPY: 17.39 (-0.5%; -0.5%)

Here also the results are over 3 weeks:
Hall of fame: MTL +42.2%, EXM +22.6%, POT +20.5% (and three more double digit gainers)
Hall of shame: LNN -19.3%, DNR -4.6%, APA -0.7% (and the rest was positive over the three weeks)

I did have time to run the screens and there is one stock that needs to be re placed, but the results were unconvincing. No new Top 3. With results like this for doing nothing, that is not really a problem. BTW, I just discovered that my real money account is up 40% for the year. So we're about halfway back

QHF Closed Trades (no changes)
Winners: 49, avg +70.2%
Losers: 29, avg -24.4%
Total: 78, avg +35.1%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Oh, my

Well, my database is completely wrecked and I have to see if I can reconstruct the most relevant data ...

Regards,

Karel