Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[billb]

Thanks for clarifying the rules a bit. Obviously there is some subjectiveness here that I'll need to account for on my own. I'm sure I'll get the hang of it.

I've attached the spreadsheet. I put the "automatic" calcs on a separate page. The top 3 I came up with for this week were AXYS, ZEUS and CSIQ. I'd be curious to know if your manual process turns up the same results.

Also, I was able to save it in "compatibility" mode, so hopefully it will work with Excel 2003. Remember to enable macros.

[Karel]

I am suddenly (almost) completely swamped in work (not a bad thing!), so no show here.

Sorry billb, I'll get back to you!

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

Thanks for clarifying the rules a bit. Obviously there is some subjectiveness here that I'll need to account for on my own. I'm sure I'll get the hang of it.

I've attached the spreadsheet. I put the "automatic" calcs on a separate page. The top 3 I came up with for this week were AXYS, ZEUS and CSIQ. I'd be curious to know if your manual process turns up the same results.

Also, I was able to save it in "compatibility" mode, so hopefully it will work with Excel 2003. Remember to enable macros.

billb, thanks much for sharing your r^2 calculator.

How can I modify the spreadsheet to increase from 10 stocks to say 100?

Thanks.

[billb]

It's a loop inside the macro, change it to however many you want.

billb, thanks much for sharing your r^2 calculator.

How can I modify the spreadsheet to increase from 10 stocks to say 100?

Thanks.

[Karel]

New Top 3: MANT, URBN and CRMT

After almost two months absence I return to clear the debris. Things look rather ugly. My funds dropped from the top to the bottom of the list. The percentages are for 8 weeks and YTD:

IWM: 25.02 (+6.5%; -5.7%)
SPY: 23.39 (+0.4%; -14.9%)
QQQQ: 24.84 (-2.5%; -15.2%)
QHF-: 24.41 (-17.8%; -19.3%)
QHF: 26.05 (-23.0%; -23.0%)

No halls of fame and shame for the week, but to give an indication of the past 8 weeks:

• All stocks (15) show a loss
• All but two stocks show double digit losses
• Ten stocks show a loss of worse than -20%
• Four stocks show a loss of worse than -30%, with MTL at -50%

The new Top 3 are MANT, URBN and CRMT. Do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes, rather. All stocks are up for selling. I am only going to replace one at a time however. It is not a good idea to restock the portfolio with stocks picked too close together. I sold RIG yesterday, and replaced it with URBN.

At July 14 the baseline fund, QHF-, sold DNR, RIG and KWK for an average loss of -3.3%, for a total average of +4.9% over the 137 reported sells. No stocks were positive, so we have still 37 stocks that reached 15% or more. This week HIL, APWR and WDC will be replaced by MANT, URBN and CRMT.

QHF Closed Trades (no change)
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3!

When I ran the screens, they turned up only a handful of stocks. That should be indicative of something or other, I suppose... But I can still give the weekly update (numbers from the Friday close):

IWM: 25.23 (+0.8%; -4.9%)
SPY: 23.70 (+1.3%; -13.8%)
QQQQ: 24.83 (-0.0%; -15.2%)
QHF-: 24.05 (-1.4%; -20.5%)
QHF: 25.89 (-0.6%; -23.4%)

Nothing to be proud of here.

Hall of fame: MTL +7.8%, ATW 6.6%, RIO 3.1%
Hall of shame: BUCY -9.2%, AAPL -7.0%, EXM -7.0%

We do need a new pick for our fund, but there is nothing to choose from, so this week is a pass.

Last week RIG was sold for 124.34, a disappointing -9.8% loss in almost 8 months. URBN was bought at 38.16.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold HIL, APWR and WDC for an average loss of -13.8%, for a total average of +4.5% over the 140 reported sells. No stocks were over 15% positive, so we still have 37 stocks that reached 15% or more. This week we have no replacements.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 28, avg -22.6%
Total: 76, avg +36.6%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3!

This week I have the same news as last week: when I ran the screens, they turned up only a handful of stocks. The weekly update shows the Russell 2000 on fire:

IWM: 26.19 (+3.8%; -1.2%)
SPY: 23.33 (-1.6%; -15.1%)
QQQQ: 24.53 (-1.2%; -16.2%)
QHF-: 24.49 (+1.8%; -19.0%)
QHF: 26.11 (+0.8%; -22.8%)

Hall of fame: LNN +19.2%, POT +8.1%, APA +7.8%
Hall of shame: EXM -6.4%, CLF -6.4%, AAPL -5.4%

We do need a new pick for our fund, but there is nothing to choose from, so this week is, again, a pass.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes)
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 28, avg -22.6%
Total: 76, avg +36.6%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3!

Although there is no new pick in sight, this is no reason to stop updating my funds, although there is not much fun and even less profit here. I would like to explain about the "no picks" mantra you here from me. I use two sets of filters for my stocks, and especially one of them shows only a handful of stocks. That is not enough for a longlist, so I am taking this as a signal to sit things out. In hindsight, perhaps I could have used it as a signal to go cash, but that would seem to be too late now. And as I did not report, I cannot see what the result would have been, and if the decision would have made sense at the time, as opposed to in hindsight.

The results for the period since the last report are moderately awful. No green for best performer this time, just red for most awful:

SPY: 14.95 (-34.2%; -45.6%)
IWM: 14.19 (-42.5%; -46.5%)
QQQQ: 15.25 (-35.1%; -47.9%)
QHF-: 13.54 (-40.1%; -55.2%)
QHF: 11.54 (-50.6%; -65.9%)

BTW, and for what it is worth, the one stock consistently showing up is QCOR!

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3!

Updating the last three weeks.

BTW, I have relaxed my criteria to get back into the game earlier (for better or for worse): I am now looking for a 6 month performance of 25% or better on my blocked screen, instead of a 12 month performance of 50% or better.

For the week ending 11/28:

IWM: 16.53 (+16.5%; -37.7%)
SPY: 16.94 (+13.3%; -38.4%)
QQQQ: 16.65 (+9.2%; -43.1%)
QHF-: 15.21 (+12.4%; -49.7%)
QHF: 13.09 (+13.4%; -61.3%)

For the week ending 12/05:

IWM: 16.10 (-2.6%; -39.3%)
SPY: 16.53 (-2.4%; -39.9%)
QQQQ: 16.55 (-0.6%; -43.5%)
QHF-: 14.18 (-6.7%; -53.1%)
QHF: 11.68 (-10.8%; -65.5%)

For the week ending 12/12:

IWM: 16.38 (+1.7%; -38.2%)
SPY: 16.73 (+1.2%; -39.1%)
QQQQ: 16.97 (+2.5%; -42.0%)
QHF-: 14.98 (+5.6%; -50.5%)
QHF: 13.11 (+12.2%; -61.2%)

Volatile is the word. But we seem to be better than 3 weeks ago. Are we climbing the wall of worry again? Perhaps too early to tell.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Balance 2008 & 1st week 2009

Hi all,

a belated balance for 2008. Numbers through 1/2.

IWM: 17.54 (-33.9%)
SPY: 17.48 (-36.4%)
QQQQ: 17.74 (-39.4%)
QHF-: 15.95 (-47.3%)
QHF: 13.87 (-59.0%)

Least said, soonest mended. This was not a good year for my $$$Mr. Market$$$ like stock picks.

The first week saw no trades. All yearly scores were reset.

QHF: 14.32 (+3.2%)
QHF-: 15.94 (-0.1%)
QQQQ: 17.19 (-3.1%)
IWM: 16.81 (-4.2%)
SPY: 16.75 (-4.2%)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3

My screens are still producing only a handful of stocks. No new picks.

QHF-: 15.21 (-4.6%; -4.6%)
QHF: 13.17 (-8.0%; -5.0%)
QQQQ: 16.82 (-2.2%; -5.2%)
IWM: 16.23 (-3.5%; -7.5%)
SPY: 15.99 (-4.5%; -8.5%)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Same, same. My screens are still producing only a handful of stocks. No new picks. All portfolio's are under water.

Week ending 1-23:
QHF: 13.19 (+0.2%; -4.9%)
QHF-: 15.02 (-1.2%; -5.8%)
QQQQ: 16.52 (-1.8%; -6.9%)
SPY: 15.62 (-2.3%; -10.6%)
IWM: 15.50 (-4.5%; -11.6%)

Week ending 1-30:
QHF: 13.18 (-0.1%; -5.0%)
QHF-: 15.03 (+0.1%; -5.7%)
QQQQ: 16.61 (+0.5%; -6.4%)
SPY: 15.57 (-0.3%; -10.9%)
IWM: 15.53 (+0.2%; -11.5%)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No new top 3

Same, same, same. 6 stocks on my screen now, and that is even with the shorter horizon. I'll wait untill I have 20-25 stocks. So no new Top 3. The week was crazy. On the good side this time: the worst result was booked by SPY, up 5.0% for the week. My portfolios showed their resilience: deep down as they are, they seem to be attached to a rubber band or something:

Week ending 2-6:
QHF: 14.84 (+12.6%; +7.0%)
QHF-: 16.40 (+9.1%; +2.8%)
QQQQ: 17.94 (+8.0%; +1.1%)
SPY: 16.35 (+5.0%; -6.5%)
IWM: 16.40 (+5.6%; -6.5%)

I had half a mind to reintroduce the Halls of Fame and Shame, thought that this week was perhaps not a very good start for them, but OK, here they are:

Hall of Fame: MTL +30.9%, CLF +27.5%, RIO +25.4% (and 4 other 20+% stocks)
Hall of Shame: PBR +2.3%, APA +5.0%, ATW +8.9% (the only three single digit gainers)

Before anyone starts cheering: my main portfolio, QHF, is still down some 60% from its all-time high in May 2008, and the baseline fund QHF- some 50% since its all-time high in October 2007. But some cheering will go down very well, thank you.

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Karel,
Will the market recovery in Europe lag behind a U.S. recovery? Same way with housing, finance? Thanks

---------------billy

[Karel]

Karel,
Will the market recovery in Europe lag behind a U.S. recovery? Same way with housing, finance? Thanks

---------------billy

I really can't answer that question. A quick view on the charts shows that the markets move more or less in tandem. Because of the relative importance of the US market there will be a lagging component, but it isn't the only variable in the mix.

Regards,

Karel