Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

It is sunday evening, it is still hot, I am busy with a nasty translation, and the fund just has to give way for a week.

The numbers are: my fund: 14.54 (-7.7%), SPY: 15.52 (-4%), QQQ: 14.95 (-5.7%), IWM 14.51 (-5.7%)

I wanted to make a quip about red, but get about as far as the red sox. OK, back to work.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Hello fund, here we are again. Well it's about time. How's that? Look for yourself.

Ok, let's look for ourselves: the participations for my virtual fund at Marktocracy are valued at 14.30 (-1.6%), See?, for SPY this would be 15.57 (+0.3%), QQQ 14.86 (-0.6%), IWM 14.45 (-0.4%). So the fund is carrying the red lantern, compared to the market(s).

How can this be? Well, 9 stocks dropped more than 10%, 6 of those even more than 15%. That hurts. What also hurts is the way COCO went. We decided to sell it when it stood at 18.72, but the Monday opening was at 11.2x; a 40% drop. We got 11.26 for COCO for a -42.56% return in 4 months.

Do we dare to sell another stock? Yes, we dare. NIHD didn't make a new higher weekly close in almost 4 months now, and we'll kick it out. SAFM gets in, a succesfull $$$Mr. Market$$$ pick from the first half of this year. The target price was 44.17, SAFM now trades for 47.25. We'll see if there is some juice left in those chickens.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Back after too much work and a well needed vacation! How's the fund? Fine, until I saw you. What's this? Look for yourself

Well, let's look for ourselves. The participations for my virtual fund at Marktocracy are valued at 17.08 (+19.4%) See? A comparable SPY fund would be at 16.50 (+6%), QQQ 16.86 (+13.5%) and IWM 16.25 (+12.5%). My absence seems to have done the port no ill. I also find the fund suddenly in positive terrain since my reports here (16.41, some 7 months ago). Time for a

Virtually every stock the fund holds had double digit gains since the last report. There was only one stock with a double digit loss: SAFM, -27%. These chickens are no high-flyers.

There are three stocks now that didn't set a new high weekly close in three months: MSL, FPIC and BXG, but I am still recovering from a severe cold, and wait till next week before I take any action. Good! Aw, shut up, fund.

[Karel]

Well, what a week! Let's see what happened to the fund, and compare it to the markets. The fund now is at 17.23 (+0.9%), which looks nice enough, but the markets did better this week: SPY 17.09 (+3.6%), QQQ 17.35 (2.9%), and IWM 16.85 (+3.7%). Much better. QQQ passed our fund, and SPY is real close.

Winners with 5% or more this week were DECK (+7.9%), BXG (+7.6%), URBN (+6.5%), SFY (+6.4%). BLUD was the only stock to lose more than 5%, but did a good job of it: -12.8%.

Two stocks ratcheted their highest weekly close up another 5% (or a bit more): WSFS and URBN. MSL, FPIC and BXG are still the only three stocks that didn't do that for over 3 months (MSL for over 7 months now). What to do? MSL is still growing revenue and earnings, but slower than the year before. Perhaps a candidate to sell. FPIC is fun, from the viewpoint of revenue and earnings, and so is BXG. We'll mull a bit more over MSL, but leave things as they are for the moment.

[Karel]

I am wearing a smile on my face today, as the fund was in very good form indeed. It currently stands at $18.16, an all time high, and +5.4% compared to last week. Whoa! I feel moderately huge! Which such a gain, the fund is leading the markets again; to compare: SPY 17.31 (+1.3%), QQQ 17.67 (+1.8%), and IWM 17.32 (+2.8%).

The fund had a whole bunch of shiners this week: FPIC +21.4%, BLUD +15.4%, VNBC +13.3%, SAFM +12% (dead chicken bounce?), URBN +7.9%, and MSL +7.9%. That's the stock I almost dumped last week. Lucky me. Three stocks lost a bit, but not worth mentioning.

Several stocks set a new weekly close 5% or more higher than the previous one. VNBC, FPIC, DECK, RUSH, SFY, URBN and TNP.

I still haven't finished deliberating whether to sell MSL or not and the only other stock that didn't set a new higher weekly close in 3 months is BXG, and it seems a bit early to get rid of BXG too. So I'll think a bit longer.

[Karel]

Perhaps to be expected, but a disappointment nevertheless: last week was too good to last. This week the fund underperformed the markets: 17.86 (-1.7%), SPY 17.06 (-1.4%), QQQ 17.67 (+0.0%), IWM 17.14 (-1.0%). We are still on top, however.

Although the majority of stocks lost, two stocks gained more than 5%: VLO +6.5%, and TSO +5.3%. Significant losses were chalked up by URBN -7.7%, FPIC -6.6%, and BLUD -5.1%. The last two were significant gainers the previous week.

Three stocks pegged their high weekly close a level (5% or more) higher: MSL (got a danger mark for tardiness, however), PKZ, and VLO.

I finally decided what to do with sell candidates: look at their earnings, and then decide to give them another 3 months or not. They get a mark against their tickers however: next time they just go. Currently NFI, MSL and BXG carry such a mark.

It is perhaps nice to give the whole lot here (you don't see them on http://tinyurl.com/2oeg9):

VNBC + 283% (19 months)
BLUD +219% (19 months)
PVTB +140% (19 months)
MSL +95% (19 months)*

URBN + 81% (6 months)
WSFS +76% (19 months)
FPIC +75% (13 months)
PKZ +34% (7 months)

SFY +34% (6 months)
DECK +30% (7 monts)
BXG +30% (6 months)*
UPL +18% (4 months)

VLO +17% (4 months)
TNP +13% (4 months)
TSO +9% (3 months)
RUSHB +8% (6 months)

KCS +6% (7 months)
EPEX -18% (4 months)
SAFM -23% (3 months)
NFI -29% (7 months)*

[Karel]

Those 5 stocks from 19 months ago looked a bit strange. I checked on marketocracy and discovered that I hold these stocks several months longer:

VNBC + 283% [22 months]
BLUD +219% [27 months]
PVTB +140% [25 months]
MSL +95% [23 months]
WSFS +76% [23 months]

With these holding periods, WSFS and MSL drop under my 50%/year expectation. Something to keep in mind.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

My fund feels a bit manic depressive the last few weeks, but as last week was manic, I am not complaining. Readers who don't have a head for heights, stop reading now!!! All time high!!! 18.75 (+5.0%)!!! Eat dust, you SPYders (17.25, +1.1%), QQQubes (17.92, +1.4%) and IWMs (17.56, +2.5%)of this world! 25% annualized over the last 33 months, the life time of the fund. I am a genius! Thanks to $$$Mr.Market$$$, our great teacher! I have to tie myself to my chair if I want to continue this write-up, or I will float up to the ceiling!!!

<tied down>More than half of the funds gained more than 5%, so I'll keep myself to 8%+-gainers. BXG +19.3%, SFY +11.2%, EPEX +9.3%, UPL +9.3%, DECK +8.7%, TNP +8.6%, BLUD +8.5%. Two stocks lost: MSL -4.4%, and VNBC -3.3%.

Nine stocks pegged their high weekly close a level (5% or more) higher: WSFS, BLUD, DECK, SFY, BXG, VLO, UPL, TNP, and TSO.</tied down>

<floats upward>What a team!

[Karel]

You get used to it: another all-time high for the fund: 18.82 (+0.4%). The markets did better: SPY 17.38 (+0.8%), QQQQ 18.34 (+2.3%), and IWM 17.85 (+1.7%).

We had a very mixed bag this week. Let's start with the black sheep: PKZ -10.3%, UPL -10.2%, TNP -9.1%, VLO -8.7%, URBN -6.1%, and EPEX -5%. That the fund is up with such a line-up is rather a miracle, but the rest of the flock went in the direction their shepherd likes best: up. The biggest gainers: RUSHB +13%, NFI +8.5%, VNBC +7.9%, DECK +7.7%, BLUD +6.8%, SAFM +6.3%, BXG +5.1%, and PVTB +5%.

Five stocks pegged their high weekly close a level (5% or more) higher: BLUD (!), PVTB, DECK(!), RUSHB, and BXG(!). Exclamation points for stocks who did this two weeks in a row.

I missed three stocks that didn't make new highs for three months: KCS, EPEX and SAFM. I reviewed them, and they (retroactively) get another three months to prove what they can do, all three of them.

That's all!

[Karel]

Boring. Another all-time high. 19.04. The markets fared worse, the last two weeks: SPY 17.41 (+0.2%), QQQQ 18.04 (-1.6%), and IWM 17.87 (+0.1%).

The plus for the two weeks was largely due to NFI, one of our black sheep, up almost 20%, and BXG, another black sheep, up 12%. Other notable winners were the chickens, SAFM (+5.9%), still not flying but at least climbing out of the hole, and UPL (+5.2%). One loser dropped more than 5%: DECK (-8.4%), taking a breather apparently.

Two stocks closed more than 5% higher than their highest weekly close in the portfolio: NFI and BXG. BXG really is on a tear. If NFI had not set a new high, it would have been sold! Now the team remains unchanged.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

The numbers:
my Marketocracy fund: 19.08 (+0.2%)
SPY: 17.62 (+1.2%)
QQQ: 18.24 (+1.1%)
IWM: 18.11 (+1.3%)

No sells, no buys.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

The numbers:

my Marketocracy fund: 23.03 (+20.7%)
SPY: 18.08 (+4.8%)
QQQ: 18.47 (+1.5%)
IWM: 18.66 (+4.5%)

The percent results are for one year. If you take a look at the date of the previous post, you'll see nothing happened here for one year exactly. Shame on me! But the portfolio did well, nonetheless. Better than my own real money portfolio. Perhaps I should stay out altogether

But no, I can't leave well enough alone. Currently the port holds 19 stocks (one got sold because of a merger) and I aim for 15 positions of about 6% each. SAFM and NFI are notorious underperformers and will go, JLG is the first buy of the year.

And here's the public page for the fund again.

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

congrats on outperforming the market karel.

[Karel]

Thanks spike. It is interesting that an investment portfolio of $$$Mr.Market$$$ stocks does so well over one year. Build the port up. Go to sleep. It is almost a shame to start meddling, but that is exactly what I am going to do. This portfolio is my entry in the Portfolio of the Year (2006) competition.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

OK, the first week of my Marketocracy fund in 2006. Actually I have two, but the Mechanical Fund isn't a $$$Mr.Market$$$ like portfolio, so this is my *REAL* marketocracy fund. First thing to consider: all positions are in the black. Curious. I don't expect this to last.

I reset the stocks that were "stale" to recent highs, so they get a new chance and I don't have to hurry to replace them. This also means that the current fund holds three stocks more than I aim for; no big problem. It will get sorted out during the next two months or so. I also reset the "comparison funds" (SPY, QQQQ, and IWM) to a NAV of 23.03, the starting value of my fund for 2006. This means we are now ready for the numbers:

Fund: 24.08 (+4.6%)
SPY: 23.76 (+3.2%)
QQQQ: 24.32 (+5.6%)
IWM: 24.03 (+4.3%)

Currently owned: BLUD, BXG, DECK, EPEX, FPIC, JLG, KCS, MSL, PVTB, RUSHB, SFY, TNP, TSO, UPL, URBN, VLO, VNBC, and WSFS.

Top three performers this week: BLUD +15.2%, DECK +14.2%, and KCS +12.4%. The bottom three: VNBC -4.1%, URBN -1.6%, and MSL -0.6%. The other twelve stocks were positive!

Regards,

Karel