Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

Another week in which I will not update my portfolio. For a very sad reason this time. My mother in law passed away in her sleep on Tuesday night. We are all very much grieved. It came as a surprise, because, while she was clearly going downhill, there was no sign yet of an imminent crisis. She always prayed that God would take her in her sleep, and that prayer was answered. May all her other prayers be answered as well. And ours too.

OK, here is the scorecard, notable because my funds are suddenly on top for the year (second percentage):

QHF-: 28.94 (+3.6%; -4.3%)
QHF: 32.22 (+4.8%; -4.7%)
SPY: 25.49 (+0.4%; -7.3%)
IWM: 24.17 (-0.9%; -8.9%)
QQQQ: 24.97 (-0.3%; -14.7%)

Regards,

Karel

[skiracer]

my condolences Karel.

[spikefader]

I'm sorry for your loss, Karel. Prayers for you and yours.

[Karel]

Thank you folks! I had hoped to be back in business by now, but hat was too optimistic. I'll give the scorecard (do I see my funds on top and in the correct order?):

QHF: 31.68 (-1.7%; -6.3%)
QHF-: 28.32 (-2.1%; -6.4%)
SPY: 25.16 (-1.3%; -8.5%)
IWM: 24.05 (-0.5%; -9.3%)
QQQQ: 24.56 (-1.6%; -16.1%)

Hall of fame: GGB +6.5%, AAPL +4.7%, MTL +4.1%
Hall of shame: FWLT -14.2%, DECK -8.5%, VIP -8.6%

Not a good week, but some remarkable good results. MTL has now tripled since September 07, and in my personal account I have creamed it off 4 times now, and the realized total already tops the initial investment.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Again I had hoped to be back in business by now, but again that was too optimistic. It is because of a rush job, so I am not complaining, but my fund really needs an update. Anyhow:

QHF: 30.61 (-3.4%; -9.5%)
QHF-: 27.32 (-3.5%; -9.7%)
SPY: 24.38 (-3.1%; -11.3%)
IWM: 23.04 (-4.2%; -13.1%)
QQQQ: 24.05 (-2.1%; -17.9%)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Late, But Back in Business. New Top 3: POT, DNR, APC

Late, because of the (extended) Easter weekend over here, but still: a blessed Easter everyone.

I owe you the scores of the previous week (ending on March 14) too:
QHF-: 27.26 (-0.2%; -9.9%)
QHF: 30.30 (-1.0%; -10.4%)
SPY: 24.36 (-0.1%; -11.4%)
IWM: 23.10 (+0.3%; -12.9%)
QQQQ: 24.16 (+0.5%; -17.5%)

And last week:
SPY: 24.83 (+1.9%; -9.7%)
IWM: 23.57 (+2.0%; -11.1%)
QHF-: 26.16 (-4.1%; -13.5%)
QQQQ: 24.64 (+2.0%; -15.8%)
QHF: 28.20 (-6.9%; -16.6%)

A very unexpected setback for my funds, but probably just a reminder that these stocks are after all momentum stocks and subject to a lot of emotion. We'll try and keep our cool.

This weeks hall of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: AAPL +5.3%, DECK +2.9%, QMAR -3.5% (ahem)
Hall of Shame: MTL -16.2%, DNR -15.4%, NOV -14.4%

OK. The new Top 3 are POT, DNR, and APC. Warning! The number of stocks that passed the screen was uncommonly low, and the stocks that bubbled to the top might be more risky than in nice, clean bull markets. having got that out of the way, do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes rather, as LXU has almost halved since its (weekly) close on 12/31. Its replacement will be POT.

The baseline fund, QHF-, will replace TTES, FSIN, and AXYS with POT, TRA, and FLS.

And of course by the time I post this, the trades have already gone through, but I will report next week.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: POT, AXYS, FCN

Well, finally more or less back to normal, not counting a persistent sniffling and other coarse facts regarding my nose. The week before last my funds tumbled way down, and now they show some recovery, especially the baseline fund QHF-:

QHF-: 27.45 (+4.9%; -9.2%)
SPY: 24.72 (-0.4%; -10.1%)
IWM: 23.82 (+1.1%; -10.2%)
QHF: 29.57 (+4.9%; -12.5%)
QQQQ: 24.86 (+0.9%; -15.1%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: RIO +10.8%, NOV +10.2%, QMAR +10.2%
Hall of Shame: VIP -2.1%, DECK -1.2%, GGB +0.1%

OK. The new Top 3 are POT, AXYS, FCN. Warning! The number of stocks that passed the screen is still uncommonly low, and the stocks that bubbled to the top might be more risky than in nice, clean bull markets. Having got that out of the way, do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes rather, as DECK is down a third since its (weekly) close on 12/7. A tear comes into my eye with this decision, because DECK has been in my Marketocracy portfolio for almost 4 years now, and it did really, really well (buy price in the low thirties). Its replacement will be BUCY.

LXU got sold for 15.13, a -43% loss in 20 weeks. Ugly. POT entered the lists at 151.24.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold TTES, FSIN, and AXYS for a disappointing average loss of -11.2%, for a total average of +4.2% over the 95 reported sales. 26 stocks reached 15% or more. This week QMAR, FSTR and PBR will be replaced by AXYS, FCN, and LNN.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 45, avg +70.8%
Losers: 24, avg -24.7%
Total: 69, avg +37.6%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, DNR, RIG

Crazy week! When the markets gain 4+% and my funds even more, I don't expect these gains to keep. We'll see. Suddenly, my funds are on top again, for what it is worth:

QHF-: 29.10 (+6.0%; -3.8%)
QHF: 31.84 (+7.7%; -5.8%)
IWM: 24.85 (+4.3%; -6.3%)
SPY: 25.73 (+4.1%; -6.4%)
QQQQ: 26.22 (+5.5%; -10.5%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: GGB 18.3%, NOV +16.7%, MTL +11.6%
Hall of Shame: QMAR -0.6%, DNR +4.1%(!), BUCY +4.7%(!)

Well, this weeks worst performers are nothing to be really ashamed of.

OK. The new Top 3 are POT, DNR, and RIG. Warning! The number of stocks that passed the screen is still uncommonly low. OK, but do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes, because FWLT is marked as stalling (100 days without a new 5% higher weekly close) and it is down 25% since Decmber 7. Out it goes, and its replacement will be APA

DECK got sold for 104.61, a 239% gain in 4 years, or 36% annualized. Wonderful. And it immediately gained 9.4% this week after I sold it. Oh, well. BUCY entered the lists at 104.27 and was the third worst performer with +4.7%

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold QMAR, FSTR and PBR for a disappointing average loss of -10.0%, for a total average of +3.7% over the 98 reported sales. 26 stocks reached 15% or more. This week DNR, ATW, and RIG will be replaced by DNR(!), RIG(!), and ATW(!).

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 46, avg +73.6%
Losers: 24, avg -24.7%
Total: 70, avg +39.9%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, CF, RIG

A slow week for the markets, but my QHF fund actually showed a gain:

QHF-: 28.85 (-0.8%; -4.6%)
QHF: 32.13 (+0.9%; -5.0%)
SPY: 25.07 (-2.6%; -8.8%)
IWM: 24.00 (-3.4%; -9.5%)
QQQQ: 25.32 (-3.4%; -13.5%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: MTL +9.8%, POT +4,4%, SID 3,6%
Hall of Shame: NOK -4.5%, AAPL -3.9%, VIP -3.1%

The new Top 3 are POT, CF, and RIG. Well, only CF is new since last week. The Low Number of Stocks Passing The Screens Warning is still in force. Do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes, because VIP is marked as stalling (100 days without a new 5% higher weekly close) and it is down 26% since December 21. Out it goes, and its replacement will be LNN.

FWLT got sold for 64.74, a disappointing 2.0% gain in 6 months and something. APA was bought at 128.95.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold DNR, ATW, and RIG for an average gain of 2.7%, for a total average of +3.7% over the 101 reported sells. 26 stocks reached 15% or more. This week JEC, BYI and ANR will be replaced by CF, DAR, and MA.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 47, avg +72.1%
Losers: 24, avg -24.7%
Total: 71, avg +39.3%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, DNR, RIG

Ubiquitous irrational exuberance actually pushed my funds in the black for the year:

QHF: 34.71 (+8.0%; +2.7%)
QHF-: 30.69 (+6.4%; +1.5%)
SPY: 26.03 (+3.8%; -5.3%) (!!)
IWM: 25.03 (+4.3%; -5.6%)
QQQQ: 26.71 (+5.5%; -8.8%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: EXM +31.6%, LNN +21.2%, BUCY +15,6%
Hall of Shame: NOK -10.6%, MTL +2.6%, GGB +3.7%

A note about EXM: it surreptitiously (well, for the somnolent investor I am) entered my portfolio as a replacement for QMAR. EXM bought QMAR for $13 and .3979 shares of EXM for one share of QMAR. That means that QMAR got sold for 24,40 and EXM got bought for 28,64. I decide to hold EXM on the usual regime: as long as it keeps rising.

The new Top 3 are POT, DNR, RIG. Well, these stocks are usual suspects by now. Do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes, because NOK is marked as stalling (100 days without a new 5% higher weekly close) and it is down 23% since December 11. Out it goes, and its replacement will be PBR.

VIP got sold for 30.80, a tasty 24.3% gain in 7 months; its replacement LNN was bought for 105.26, QMAR was sold for a small loss: -5.4% in 4 months; the buy price for EXM was 28.64.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold JEC, BYI and ANR for an average gain of 5.6%, for a total average of +3.8% over the 104 reported sells. NR gained a dizzying 63.9% in that period, so now 27 stocks reached 15% or more. This week AAPL, CAM and NOV will be replaced by PBR, APA and FST.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 25, avg -23.9%
Total: 73, avg +38.5%

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Karel,
APA is also high on my list but not mentioned in the IIC100 or IBD100. Time will tell its value.


-------------billy

[Karel]

Top 3: CF, PBR, RIG

Karel,
APA is also high on my list but not mentioned in the IIC100 or IBD100. Time will tell its value.

True. My fund bought APA 4/7, and it is up 7%, the baseline fund saw it lose -3.5% in its first week.

The damage after the jump upwards last week was moderate. The baseline fund dropped back in negative territory:

QHF: 34.49 (-0.6%; +2.0%)
QHF-: 30.11 (-1.9%; -0.4%)
SPY: 26.24 (+0.8%; -4.5%)
IWM: 25.11 (+0.3%; -5.3%)
QQQQ: 26.96 (+0.9%; -7.9%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: EXM +18.9%, AAPL +5.4%, BUCY +2.7%
Hall of Shame: LNN -12.2%, ATW -4.3%, APA -3.3%

I decide to hold EXM on the usual regime: as long as it keeps rising.

The new Top 3 are CF, PBR, RIG. Do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes, because NOV is marked as stalling (100 days without a new 5% higher weekly close). Out it goes, and its replacement will be CLF. Usually I buy these stocks also in real money; this time I don't for the simple reason that I want to build up my cash position a bit.

NOK was sold for 29.06, a disappointing -23.1% loss in a bit more than 5 months; its replacement PBR was bought for 127.11.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold AAPL, CAM and NOV for an average gain of 22.4%, for a total average of +4.3% over the 107 reported sells. Both CAM and NOV gained more than 15%, so now 29 stocks reached 15% or more. This week CMED, VIP and FSLR will be replaced by OFG, CLF and RIMM. OFG? Rings a bell somewhere

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 26, avg -23.9%
Total: 74, avg +37.7%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, ARD and KWK

This is the second week where my funds lost and the indexes gained. My main fund is still out of negative territory, but barely so:

QHF: 34.02 (-1.4%; +0.6%)
QHF-: 29.84 (-0.9%; -1.3%)
SPY: 26.60 (+1.4%; -3.2%)
IWM: 25.32 (+0.8%; -4.5%)
QQQQ: 27.88 (+3.4%; -4.8%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: GGB +12.6%, AAPL +6.6%, RIO +5.2%
Hall of Shame: POT -9.9%, LNN -9.7%, DNR -7.6%

The new Top 3 are POT, ARD and KWK. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. GGB needs trimming.

NOV was sold for 73.25, a small loss of -0.6% in about 6 months. That is disappointing. Its replacement CLF was bought for 164.22.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold CMED, VIP and FSLR for an average gain of 13.8%, for a total average of +4.5% over the 110 reported sells. FSLR gained a whopping 69.2%, so now 30 stocks reached 15% or more. This week POT, TRA, and FLS will be replaced by POT(!), FLS(!) and ARD.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: CF, PBR, LNN

Whoohoo! And then the indexes lost and my funds exploded. My main fund is now at an all time high (just looking at weekly closes; the real all time high was Thursday), and the baseline fund is positive again:

QHF: 35.70 (+4.9%; +5.6%)
QHF-: 30.74 (+3.0%; +1.6%)
SPY: 26.11 (-1.8%; -5.0%)
IWM: 24.97 (-1.4%; -5.8%)
QQQQ: 27.56 (-1.1%; -5.9%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: CLF +14.1%, DNR 11.5%, SID +8.8%
Hall of Shame: RIO -0.8%, RIG +1.1%(!), AAPL +1.4%(!)
The worst performer in the Hall of Shame still beats our benchmark indexes

The new Top 3 are CF, PBR and LNN. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. Everything is just fine.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold POT, TRA, and FLS for an average gain of 15.6%, for a total average of +4.8% over the 113 reported sells. POT and FLS gained more than 15%, so now 32 stocks reached 15% or more. This week AXYS, FCN and LNN will be replaced by MTL, LNN(!) and JST.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, FLS and DNR

Two weeks have passed and my funds are still doing nicely. They really rocketed last week, and now dropped some, but my main fund still strenthened its lead and again set a new all time high. Well, these things come in swarms. IWM is in good form and SPY most certainly not. The percentage for the week (the first one) is now of course for two weeks:

QHF: 36.48 (+2.2%; +7.9%)
QHF-: 30.65 (-0.3%; +1.3%)
IWM: 25.22 (+1.0%; -4.9%)
QQQQ: 27.56 (-0.0%; -5.9%)
SPY: 25.87 (-0.9%; -5.9%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame (again over two weeks):
Hall of Fame: GGB +13.2%, PBR +12.0%, DNR +9.6%
Hall of Shame: LNN -9.6%, MTL -5.0%, BUCY -3.2%

The new Top 3 are POT, FLS and DNR. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. Everything is just fine. Well, LNN is taking a hit, but we bought it just 6 weeks ago. Let's wait a bit.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold AXYS, FCN and LNN for an average gain of 2.1%, for a total average of +4.8% over the 116 reported sells. No stocks 15% or more, so we stay with 32 stocks which reached 15% or more. This week DNR, ATW and RIG will be replaced by DNR(!), RIG(!) and KWK.

QHF Closed Trades (no change)
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel