Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

I am going on vacation and I am wearing my broadest smile. I pocketed a win with CHAP in the POTW, and my portfolio's/funds did dandy. It was a nice week for the markets generally:

IWM: 29.45 (+1.8%)
SPY: 28.77 (+1.3%)
QHF: 28.74 (+3.5%)
QQQQ: 27.29 (+1.8%)
QHF-: 26.64 (+2.2%)

What a difference one week makes! SPY is the laggard with +1.3%. My fund is really close to second place, while after the restart in februari it was firmly in last place (together with the baseline fund, which is still there). I am completely uninterested in details this week as I won't be picking nothing for no fund, so let's see how we fared since the end of februari:

QHF: +15.7%
QHF-: +7.2%
SPY: +7.0%
QQQQ: +5.8%
IWM: +4.1%

Now these are no numbers to wipe that smile from my face. The only kind of wiping these numbers do, is to make it sparkle even more. My baseline fund QHF- seems to be fulfilling my expectation that it will beat the market, and my QHF fund seems to show that my picking makes a difference. And as a portfolio with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like stocks really can be left on its own, I won't be afraid to go on vacation and leave the funds (and my real money portfolio) to themselves.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

I came back from vacation and I am wearing my broadest smile. Did I say my portfolio of picks like $$$Mr.Market$$$'s is one you can leave alone? Here are the numbers (at the close last Friday):

QHF: 29.84 !!! !!! !!!
IWM: 29.62
SPY: 28.76
QQQQ: 27.93
QHF-: 27.18

When I went, my fund was third and close to second place. Now it's leading the pack! Ain't I at least moderately HUGE? Now to extend the lead. BTW, the fund is way over the indices since inception (see the link in my signature, below), so that shouldn't be too difficult

Full report again next week, but this is too much fun to keep it under the lid.

Regards,

Karel

[jiesen]

Go Karel!

You are HUGE!

[Karel]

Top 3: MICC, VIP and PCU

OK, I am up and running again. The score:

QHF: 30.78
IWM: 29.06
SPY: 28.86
QQQQ: 28.61
QHF-: 27.79

My fund is the proud leader of the pack, largely due to recent windfalls in CHAP, PCP and GNK.

The halls of fame and shame will be back next week.

The new Top 3 Picks are MICC, VIP and PCU. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, because we want to get rid of CHAP. We'll replace it by MICC.

As announced, QMAR, BAP and AZZ were replaced by GLDN, TEX and VOLV. The sale netted 7.0%. And behind the scenes I have already traded in my baseline fund. CPA, GMRK and SPAR were replaced by CPA(!), ANVZ and ACH. This time the sale was for a los of -6.8% average. The average gain over the reported sells (27 stocks) is now 4.4%. This week we take our leave of GEO, LFL and CROX, and we buy the top 3 not held: MICC, VIP and BAP.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 52, avg +44.1%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: ESM, NAVZ, PCU

This was a truly disastrous week, as the scores show:

QHF: 29.31 (-5.1%)
QQQQ: 27.44 (-4.1%)
SPY: 27.28 (-5.5%)
IWM: 26.76 (-7.9%)
QHF-: 26.10 (-6.1%)

My fund is still the proud leader of the pack, but that is more because of worse returns of the market in general.

MICC, my newest pick, tumbled almost 20% in its first week, but it just missed the hall of shame: VOLV -19.6%, RKT -19.3%, and TSO -19.1%
The hall of fame was some compensation: DECK +6.1%, WCG +6.0%, and GEO +1.7% (but not very much).

CHAP was sold for 83.75, a 60.7% gain in 20 weeks! MICC was bought at 95.09 (ouch).

The new Top 3 Picks are ESM, NAVZ, and PCU. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, and I am glad, for this is not a market where I like to pick momentum stocks. More power for $$$Mr. Market$$$ and his CAE!

In the baseline fund GEO, LFL and CROX were sold for an average gain of 11.4%. The average gain over all reported sells (30 stocks) is now 5.1%. (Why is the fund trailing the markets then? Must be all those unrealized losses ) This week we take our leave of MEH, MT and PCU, and we buy the top 3 not held: EMS, PCU(!) and MTL.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 37, avg +74.1%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 53, avg +44.4%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top Three: PCP, MICC, and DECK

This was a moderately bad week, as the scores show, but still my funds are keeping up rather well:

QHF: 29.22 (-0.3%)
QQQQ: 27.11 (-1.2%)
SPY: 27.03 (-0.9%)
IWM: 26.32 (-1.6%)
QHF-: 26.09 (-0.1%)

My QHF fund lengthens its lead, but again because of worse returns of the market in general. As IWM (the Russel small cap 2000) seems intent on burying itself in the deepest hole it can find, my baseline fund stands a chance to leave last place.

This weeks hall of fame: GRMN +23.5%(!), WCG +4.5% (another good week), and PCP +4.3%.
The hall of shame: DRQ -15.1%, DECK -7.1%, and PCU -7.0%

The new Top 3 Picks are PCP, MICC, and DECK. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, and we did so last week already if I had looked a bit better. Three stocks need replacement because of "stagnation": AKH, DRQ and RKT. AKH is the first in line. It will be replaced by VSEA.

In the baseline fund MEH, MT and PCU were sold for an average gain of 4.2%. The average gain over all reported sells (33 stocks) is now 5.0%. This week we take our leave of PCP, WRNC and VSEA, and we buy the top 3 not held: PCP(!), VSEA(!), and BGC.

QHF Closed Trades (no change):
Winners: 37, avg +74.1%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 53, avg +44.4%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

A better week, but worse for my funds. The index funds are changing position like mad, and I guess I shouldn't have said that my baseline fund had a chance to leave last place:

QHF: 29.03 (-0.7%)
IWM: 27.26 (+3.6%)
SPY: 27.20 (+0.6%)
QQQQ: 27.03 (-0.3%)
QHF-: 25.63 (-1.8%)

That is it for this week, as I really don't have the time to pick stocks. See you next week.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: PCU, DWSN, and SNCR

This was a nerve wracking week, and my funds are showing some wear.

QHF: 27.75 (-4.4%)
IWM: 27.38 (+0.4%)
SPY: 27.20 (-0.0%)
QQQQ: 26.48 (-2.0%)
QHF-: 24.31 (-5.2%)

My baseline fund QHF- is under water compared to february, when I restarted my activities. QHF is still on top, but barely so. Actually, on Thursday, it dropped to 3rd place for a day.

No halls of fame and shame this week, as I missed a beat.

The new Top 3 Picks are PCU, DWSN, and SNCR. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, two stocks need replacement because of "stagnation": DRQ and RKT. DRQ is the first in line. It will be replaced by FTK. Actually DWSN would have been nice too, but I already picked that for my real money portfolio, and now I need a new stock there too. So I pass DWSN by.

AKH was sold for 44.79, a -12.5% loss in 3.5 months. Yuck.

Two weeks ago the basline fund got rid of PCP, WRNC and VSEA, for an avarge gain of 16.5%, or 6.0 percent average over the reported 36 sells. We buy the top 3 not held: DWSN, SNCR and FTK.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 37, avg +74.1%
Losers: 17, avg -23.6%
Total: 53, avg +43.4%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

In the category cross-eyed decisions:

... Yes, two stocks need replacement because of "stagnation": DRQ and RKT. DRQ is the first in line. It will be replaced by FTK. Actually DWSN would have been nice too, but I already picked that for my real money portfolio, and now I need a new stock there too. So I pass DWSN by. ...

I didn't need a replacement in my real money holdings after all, so I cancelled FTK and bought DWSN instead. Nice chance to resynchronize my portfolios

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Karel,
Baseball fans in our area think very highly of your fellow countryman, Jair Jurrjens, only 21 years of age, with quite a future.

-----------billyjoe

[Karel]

Karel,
Baseball fans in our area think very highly of your fellow countryman, Jair Jurrjens, only 21 years of age, with quite a future.

Thank you for mentioning it; he seems to be making a remarkable start. Baseball has almost no exposure here, so I was completely unaware of the fact.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: PCP, FLWS, and QMAR

My funds show decided symptoms of bipolarity. Just watch this after last week:

QHF: 30.12 (+8.5%)
SPY: 27.88 (+2.5%)
IWM: 27.81 (+1.6%)
QQQQ: 27.56 (+4.1%)
QHF-: 26.55 (+9.2%)

I really would have liked a greener green for my baseline fund; suddenly it is back on track. Since the reactivation in Februari it is almost equal to SPY (which gains second place this week), the best of the three index ETFs I watch as proxies for the market (over that period). And my expectation (read: hope) was that it would beat the markets. Am I happy? Maybe. The halls of fame and shame show why:

Hall of fame: VSEA 21,8%, GGB 14,2%, and PCU 13,1% (and two more double-digit gainers)
Hall of shame: GEO +0.7%, PCP +5.5%, and GLF +5.9%. No stocks negative this week? No sir!

You know what, gains like this make me a bit wary. It looks too good to last. But I am not complaining!

The new Top 3 Picks are PCP, FLWS, and QMAR. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, one stock needs replacement because of "stagnation": RKT. As PCP is already held, I have to dig a bit deeper, and it will be replaced by RIO, well-known by the regulars of this board.

DRQ was sold for 43.68, a 3.7% gain in just over a year. Let's forget that one. DWSN entered the portfolio at 64.09 (and gained almost 9% in its first week).

The baseline fund got rid of DECK, SPIL and GNK, for an avarge gain of 8.7%, or 6.2% average over the reported 39 sells. BTW: this just amaaazing! We now sell GLDN, TEX and VOLV and buy the top 3 not held: FLWS, QMAR, and RIO.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 38, avg +72.3%
Losers: 17, avg -23.6%
Total: 54, avg +42.7%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New top 3: VDSI, DWSN, and MTL

The week was a mixed bag for the markets, with QQQQ leapfrogging SPY and IWM, and for my funds. My baseline fund is on a roll:

QHF: 29.85 (-0.9%)
QQQQ: 27.94 (+1.4%)
SPY: 27.74 (-0.5%)
IWM: 27.52 (-1.0%)
QHF-: 27.14 (+2.2%)

Hall of fame: RIO +3.3%, a nice start for our new pick, GGB 3,2%, and PCU 2.7% (the other two were famers last week too)
Hall of shame: GLF -6.4%, PCP -6.1%, and VOLV -4.4%. (The first two were shamers last week too)

The new Top 3 Picks are VDSI, DWSN, and MTL. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, another stock needs replacement because of "stagnation": TSO. TSO is a rather big winner in the portfolio (over 200% gain since August 2004), but not since last June. It will be replaced by MTL.

RKT was sold for 29.85, a -14.6% loss in 5 months. Let's bury that one. RIO entered the portfolio at 47.75 (and leads the hall of fame in its first week).

The baseline fund got rid of GLDN, TEX and VOLV, for an average gain of 6.0%, or 6.2% average over the reported 42 sells. We now sell CPA, NAVZ and ACH and buy the top 3 not held: VDSI, SGGGY, and MT (and not VLKAY, as mentioned previously, as that ticker isn't available in Marketocracy).

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 38, avg +72.3%
Losers: 18, avg -23.1%
Total: 55, avg +41.6%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: PCU, VIP, and RIO

A lackluster week for the markets and my baseline fund; but QHF managed to eke out a profit. And, do I dare to say it? My baseline fund seems ready to leave last place:

QHF: 29.93 (+0.3%)
QQQQ: 27.57 (-1.3%)
SPY: 27.46 (-1.0%)
IWM: 27.12 (-1.5%)
QHF-: 26.91 (-0.8%)

Hall of fame: DWSN +10.2%, GNK +5.9%, and GRMN +3.4%
Hall of shame: MICC -5.4%, VOLV -4.6%, and DECK -3.0% (VOLV made this list for the second week in succession)

The new Top 3 Picks are PCU, VIP, and RIO. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, another stock needs replacement, this time because of lackluster performance: VOLV. VOLV started out well, but has now dropped into negative territory. It will be replaced by VIP.

TSO was sold for 49.35 (averaged with an earlier "top off" sale), a 237% gain, split adjusted, in 40 months, or 57% annualized. Now that is how I like it! MTL entered the portfolio at 43.52.

The baseline fund got rid of CPA, NAVZ and ACH, for an average loss of -5.0%, or 5.5% average over the reported 45 sells. We now sell MICC, VIP, and BAP and buy the top 3 not held: VIP(!), NOV, and MTW. Last week I tried to buy SGGGY for the baseline portfolio, but couldn't, so that slot will remain empty. That will teach me go after 5 letter tickers, as VLKAY wasn't even available.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 18, avg -23.1%
Total: 57, avg +45.1%

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 18, avg -23.1%
Total: 57, avg +45.1%

Regards,
Karel

Nice curve, Karel! Congrats.