Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

Karel,
We must have some similarities in our screens. Just ran some (see Pete's thread) Final 32 stocks included AKH BW GEO SPAR UCTT, and WCG.
In fact, BW GEO SPAR UCTT and WCG were all in the final 9.

------------billyjoe

Hi Billyjoe,

interesting! I run an approximation of $$$Mr.Market$$$'s method, which means (roughly) momentum for starters, and P/E as a control. My top 10, with two extra's (in italics) in case I need to go deeper:

WCG
AKH
RKT
OMRI
EMS
ORH
MEH
UCTT
CHAP
BW
CLMT
AZZ

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Karel,
AZZ is also on my list so we agree on 5 of 10 , but I never used P/E.

1. At least 100% price appreciation this year.

2. Minimum 80 RS in last 3,6, and 12 months

3. Within 2% of high for last 10 years

4. At least 80% EPS gain in last 12 months.

-------------billyjoe

[Karel]

Karel,
AZZ is also on my list so we agree on 5 of 10 , but I never used P/E.

1. At least 100% price appreciation this year.

2. Minimum 80 RS in last 3,6, and 12 months

3. Within 2% of high for last 10 years

4. At least 80% EPS gain in last 12 months.

-------------billyjoe

Well, perhaps the similarities come from the momentum-with-a-check idea, and the differences from the different check. Who knows.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: GNK, QMAR, OMRI

Another brilliant week for the fund, and as a consequeence I am not feeling lucky, but brilliant too. Or rather: H U G E:

IWM: 28.81 (+0.2%)
SPY: 28.11 (+0.6%)
QHF: 27.23 (+2.6%)
QQQQ: 26.63 (+2.6%)
QHF-: 25.36 (+0.4%)

This week's hall of fame: TSO +9.5%, RKT +8.6%, and VOLV +8.5%
Hall of shame: WCG -5.6%, AEO -3.1%, and GGB -1.6%

The new Top 3 Picks are GNK, QMAR, OMRI. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, we do. Currently there is 1 stock due for replacement (we are getting on top of things!), and the one that has been waiting longest is TS. But I have a problem. Reviewing the top 3 and a bit deeper I saw nothing I really liked, so it is a pass this week.

TS went for 47.61, a very acceptable +29.8% gain in almost 13 months. AKH entered the fund at 51.21.

The baseline fund gained 4.8% on the sale of CHAP, CPA, and XING. This week we take our leave of WCG, GEO and RKT and get our new Top 3 Picks, but since we need to dig down to avoid stocks already held, the replacement stocks become: QMAR, BAP and AZZ.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 35, avg +76.5%
Losers: 15, avg -25.2%
Total: 50, avg +46.0%

Regards,

Karel

[peanuts]

The baseline fund gained 4.8% on the sale of CHAP, CPA, and XING. This week we take our leave of WCG, GEO and RKT and get our new Top 3 Picks, but since we need to dig down to avoid stocks already held, the replacement stocks become: QMAR, BAP and AZZ.

These replacements look great, Karel. Congrats on the excellent performance. The portfolio is really working well.

AZZ reduced guidance for the year in January. Is that a concern for you?

[Karel]

These replacements look great, Karel. Congrats on the excellent performance. The portfolio is really working well.

AZZ reduced guidance for the year in January. Is that a concern for you?

For my real fund, yes, probably, but the baseline fund is a "dumb" fund, and just grabs the top 3 not held.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: CPA, OMRI, CHAP

The market was rather OK this, but QHF lost. Stuff happens. For a change, the baseline fund had a good week, only losing to SPY. The numbers:

IWM: 28.94 (+0.5%)
SPY: 28.37 (+0.9%)
QHF: 27.12 (-0.4%)
QQQQ: 26.66 (+0.1%)
QHF-: 25.58 (+0.9%)

This week's hall of fame: GNK +6.4%, DECK (the oldest holding) +5.5%, and CHAP (my running POTW pick) +3.7%
Hall of shame: DRQ -12.2% (for confirming guidance for Q2), GRMN -5.4%, and WCG -5.1%

The new Top 3 Picks are CPA, OMRI and CHAP. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, we do. Currently there is 1 stock due for replacement (as last week we were to chicken to pick a replacement), and that is PBR (not TS, as I mentioned last week; TS got sold the week before). QHF already carries CHAP, so I exchange CHAP for GMRK, and of the three, I like GMRK best.

The baseline fund gained an amazing 12.0% on the sale of WCG, GEO and RKT. This week we take our leave of TATTF, UCTT, and SPAR, and the top 3 not held are CPA (re-entering the fray), GMRK, and ... SPAR.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 35, avg +76.5%
Losers: 15, avg -25.2%
Total: 50, avg +46.0%

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Karel,
Could you tell us a little about the buying and selling of U.S. stocks from your location ? Our stock market opens at 9:30 A.M. and closes at 4 P.M. at least by my clock. Do you purchase through a discount broker? Do you get real time quotes. Do you have to pay a premium , being outside the U.S.?
I'm sure it is more difficult for you to buy and sell. Do you have to pay a special tax on profits made outside of your country? I'm just curious. Keep up the good work.

------------billyjoe

[Karel]

Karel,
Could you tell us a little about the buying and selling of U.S. stocks from your location ? Our stock market opens at 9:30 A.M. and closes at 4 P.M. at least by my clock. Do you purchase through a discount broker? Do you get real time quotes. Do you have to pay a premium , being outside the U.S.?
I'm sure it is more difficult for you to buy and sell. Do you have to pay a special tax on profits made outside of your country? I'm just curious. Keep up the good work.

------------billyjoe

There are two main differences: the time and the taxes. Where I live, it is generally 6 hours later than when you are, so "my" market hours are from 3:30 PM - 10:00 PM. (DST starts and ends on different dates, so sometimes the difference is 5 or 7 hours.) My routine is to do all my transactions at around 4:30 PM. My strategy does not call for constant attention, so limit orders will take care of the rest.

My official status is NRA: Non-Resident Alien, and I need to reaffirm my identity every x years, because of the Patriot Act, or something. The Netherlands has a tax treaty with the U.S.A., so I pay just a 15% withholding on dividends. No capital gains tax for me, just a 1.2% tax on capital, whoopee!

I use a discount broker, www.lowtrades.com, because they were the cheapest I could find who would accept "non-resident aliens", because my account was very, very small (and still is smallish). They are good enough, and have real time quotes. I pay their normal commisions and fees, except that wiring funds costs me more, and a wire out costs more too.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: GNK, QMAR, GEO

The markets were a mixed bag, but my QHF fund did rather well. The baseline fund did well too, so I am smiling. The numbers:

IWM: 28.74 (-0.7%)
SPY: 28.36 (-0.0%)
QHF: 27.42* (+1.1%)
QQQQ: 26.75 (+0.3%)
QHF-: 25.73* (+0.6%)

* Marketocracy tends not to hurry with splits, so I had to recalculate the NAV for the 5 for 1 VOLV split.

This week's hall of fame: WCG +9.7%, PCU +7.2%, and GNK +6.3%
Hall of shame: RKT -3.7%, GMRK (the new acquisition) -3.5%, and AKH (the previous acquisition) -3.4%

The new Top 3 Picks are GNK, QMAR, and GEO. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, we don't. In another week or two, perhaps, because we have two laggards, GRMN and AEO, that probably will not be able to extend their life in the portfolio. Two stocks, CHAP and PCU, have gained quite a bit relative to the others, so I'll shave a bit off there to protect my gains.

The baseline fund lost a disappointing 5.0% on the sale of TATTF, UCTT, and SPAR. The average gain over the three reported sells (nine stocks) is 3.5%. This week we take our leave of AMIE, BW and CLMT, and we buy the top 3 not held: GEO, LFL and CROX.

PBR left QHF for 101.54, a boring 5.0% gain in 52 weeks.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 15, avg -25.2%
Total: 51, avg +45.2%

Regards,

Karel

[dalion]

WCG is a good pick.

[Karel]

Top 3: MEH, MT, PCU

Dalion, thanks for the thumbs up on WCG.

The markets were a mixed bag again, with an interesting development: SPY takes the lead from IWM. The large caps seem to rule over the small caps right now. (IWM is an ETF for the Russell 2000 smallcap index.) QHF suffered, too, with IWM and QQQQ, and the baseline fund did very badly. My hope that the baseline fund betters the indexes is rather vain, at the moment. The numbers:

SPY: 28.69 (+1.2%)
IWM: 28.54 (-0.7%)
QHF: 27.33 (-0.3%)
QQQQ: 26.71 (-0.1%)
QHF-: 25.23 (-1.9%)

This week's hall of fame: GGB +6.9%, VOLV +5.6%, and DRQ +2.2%
Hall of shame: GNK -9.2%, PCU -5.7%, and GEO -2.4%

The new Top 3 Picks are MEH, MT, and PCU. We don't need a new stock for QHF yet.

The baseline fund gained a nice +2.2% on the sale of AMIE, BW and CLMT. The average gain over the three reported sells (12 stocks) is 3.5% (last weeks average was wrong). This week we take our leave of GNK, PCU and GIGM, and we buy the top 3 not held: MEH, MT, and ... PCU.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 15, avg -25.2%
Total: 51, avg +45.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: PCP, WRNC, and PCU

SPY only enjoyed its lead for one week. QHF gained a bit, SPY and QQQQ lost, and IWM, the Russell 2000 smallcaps, ruled. The baseline fund was on a tear. My hope that the baseline fund betters the indexes is picking up again. The numbers:

IWM: 28.81 (+0.9%)
SPY: 28.52 (-0.6%)
QHF: 27.35 (+0.1%)
QQQQ: 26.56 (-0.6%)
QHF-: 25.52 (+1.2%)

This week's hall of fame: GEO +5.9%, GRMN +5.7%, and DECK +2.2%
Hall of shame: AEO -6.6%, RKT -5.1%, and GMRK -2.4%

The new Top 3 Picks are PCP, WRNC, and PCU. We do need a new stock for QHF, because 2 stocks, GRMN and AEO, failed to put down a weekly close that was 5% higher than their last high weekly close for 3 months now. AEO is the greatest offender (GRMN is actually close), so it gets replaced. As PCU from the Top 3 is already in our fund, we'll replace it by LFL in our Top 3, and after looking all three deeply into their eyes and their progress in revenue and earnings, I pick PCP as the replacement stock for AEO.

The baseline fund gained an amaaaazing +12.3% on the sale of GNK, PCU and GIGM. The average gain over the reported sells (15 stocks) is 5.2%. This week we take our leave of VOLV, ORH and VSEA, and we buy the top 3 not held: PCP, WRNC, and ... VSEA.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 15, avg -25.2%
Total: 51, avg +45.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: DECK, SPIL, and LFL

Whoah! what a week! SPY was the great loser with a 1.5% gain! Both QHF and my baseline fund trounced the market, but especially QHF. I am really feeling irrationally exuberant here!

IWM: 29.58 (+2.7%)
SPY: 28.96 (+1.5%)
QHF: 28.52 (+4.3%)
QQQQ: 27.12 (+2.1%)
QHF-: 26.27* (+2.9%)

As an illustration of my irrational exuberance, allow me to post the current holdings of QHF:

Is that one stock under water? Only one?

This week's hall of fame: GGB +9.9%, GRMN +8.1%, and PCU +7.8%
Hall of shame: WCG +0.1%, RKT +0.8%, and GMRK +1.2%
Yes: not one stock lost. But on a soberder note: this is the second consecutive week in the hall of shame for both RKT and GMRK, so that may not really be good news. We'll see.

The new Top 3 Picks are DECK, SPIL, and LFL. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, we don't. Last week we left GRMN as a stock that needed to be replaced, but it raced past its target this week, so it bought itself at least another 3 months (if it doesn't crash and burn). But look at DECK! It is the oldest holding in the fund (from April 2004), and shows up again in a Top 3! Go DECK!

AEO went for 27.08, a disappointing loss of -9.7% in almost 8 months. PCP entered the fund at 115.80.

The baseline fund gained an amaaaazing +11.5% on the sale of VOLV, ORH and VSEA. The average gain over the reported sells (18 stocks) is now 6.3%. This week we take our leave of AKH, OMRI and EMS, and we buy the top 3 not held: DECK, SPIL and GNK.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 52, avg +44.1%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: DECK, PCP, GLDN

Whoah! what a week! My feelings of irrational exuberance last week were fully justified! The numbers speak for themselves:

IWM: 28.94 (-2.2%)
SPY: 28.39 (-2.0%)
QHF: 27.78 (-2.6%)
QQQQ: 26.82 (-1.1%)
QHF-: 26.06* (-0.8%)

Well, at least the baseline fund showed some resistance to the general malaise.

This week's hall of fame: DECK +5.9%, GEO +4.3%, and PCP -0.6%
Hall of shame: AKH -8.5%, TSO -7.1%, and CHAP -6.0%

The new Top 3 Picks are DECK, PCP, and GLDN. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, we don't. Again, look at DECK! It is the oldest holding in the fund (from April 2004), and shows up again in a Top 3! Go DECK! BTW, I bought into DECK with my own money last monday. Just so you know.

The baseline fund gained +1.8% on the sale of AKH, OMRI and EMS. The average gain over the reported sells (21 stocks) is now 5.6%. This week we take our leave of QMAR, BAP and AZZ, and we buy the top 3 not held: GLDN, TEX and VOLV.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 52, avg +44.1%

Regards,

Karel