New-born Baby's Cans: Making Money in a Down Market

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
As my chart reading skills get better,Im feeling more comfortable about entries.

Ive noticed today PGH broke out of a declining wedge,pushing it up over 20.60,this is where I should have been waiting to enter.Next week when I am using Scottrade I plan to expand my opportunities greatly,as of right now EENC and PGH are my only canroys available.Eager to get into the pink sheet canroys like HTE.

Concerning FRO,the price seems to have been adjusted down fro the dividend,butits not showing last weeks highs.After the expiration date,it really should plunge,am I correct?

Spike ZICA s forming a somewhat strange looking decending triangle,5.47 being the floor,would you consider buying a break up from there at say 5.70?

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

FRO's bottom

You were spot on New-born.

Today is the channel long, and I'm adding on today's double bottom. I'll wait for head to form before setting a stop on these.

Great call on FDG by the way!

Spike,

Best investing to you always! I wish I had your TA skills.

I want to kindly disagree with today's buy of FRO. I see $44 in my rear view mirror, and since this stock has been heavily shorted in the past, I think I see something up in the road ahead.

I hope you won't set a stop on this stock. That's right: "I hope you don't set a stop on FRO." The reason is I feel confident that you'll get stopped out and lose money unnecessarily. I believe FRO is a great company with much upside, but in the next two weeks I see $44-45. I expect the shorting sharks to hammer FRO pretty hard, and the bottom may well be $40. But by the time next June comes around, she'll be back to $60+, because they'll have a big divy payout again.

The chart won't agree with me. But we'll just have to wait and see which one of us (me or the chart) is lying

God bless, and always and only the best to you.

[New-born baby]

Scottrade!

Greetings,
As my chart reading skills get better,Im feeling more comfortable about entries.

Ive noticed today PGH broke out of a declining wedge,pushing it up over 20.60,this is where I should have been waiting to enter.Next week when I am using Scottrade I plan to expand my opportunities greatly,as of right now EENC and PGH are my only canroys available.Eager to get into the pink sheet canroys like HTE.

Concerning FRO,the price seems to have been adjusted down fro the dividend,butits not showing last weeks highs.After the expiration date,it really should plunge,am I correct?

Spike ZICA s forming a somewhat strange looking decending triangle,5.47 being the floor,would you consider buying a break up from there at say 5.70?

cordially Tom

Tom,

Scottrade DOES NOT do any pinksheet brokering for the Canroys. HTE would have to be purchased over the phone. If I am wrong, tell me, because I have a Scottrade account.

PGH: should have held it.

Best to you, Bro. Tom./

[New-born baby]

TA skills

Tom,

What book or what site are you studying to improve your chart skills?

[Thomrich]

Tom,

What book or what site are you studying to improve your chart skills?

Greetings,
I was reading Jack Schwagers book on chart analysis,but it really provided nothing.

Ive learned more from reading Spikes posts about wedges,and looking for them in chart patterns.

With PGH it was unually heavy dumping,post dist.,Spike pointed to a declining wedge on tuesday,which he said could fail if the lod didnt hold.It didnt ,and it broke hard the other way,causing my sell,as I didnt know how far it would fall.
Today I saw the same wedge form,and around 10.30 it broke out and is now over 21.

I wrote on my laptop,"ENTRIES ARE WORTH WAITING FOR."

Normally a 50dma is a good entry,and it likely will be above water today,I forgot that these rarely stay that low,and just paid 1600.00 for that lesson.

Hope I learned from it.

Cordially and soon to be scottrade brother,your friend ,
Tom

[spikefader]

lol New-born.

Thanks for the feedback. Always good to hear your views. Hate to disappoint you, but I'm gonna stick to the plan and tighten up my stop to tucked under the intraday inverted head. The weekly has this FRO postioned for a run at the Nov high, and if it is to fail today, that makes a double top, and there is no way I will hold a failed setup - especially like today's with the action we've seen intraday. Failure here, is big failure in my book, and it could dump pretty quick. Holding just ain't my style.

The attached chart is a good example of an inverted SHS with a nice move after a neckline break. Learn from this one people, it is a pattern that repeats, and repeats, and repeats, and will continue to repeat til the end of the market. Fact is, the inverted SHS is symbolic of our emotion as human beings. People won't change in this regard, so you can count this pattern as statistically in your favor, and therefore an edge. As I always say, no pattern is 100% right....and anyone still looking for that is in lala land. It just isn't going to happen. But, with some great discipline with stops, and with good r/r setups, you CAN have an edge on your side.

[spikefader]

Greetings,
As my chart reading skills get better,Im feeling more comfortable about entries.

Ive noticed today PGH broke out of a declining wedge,pushing it up over 20.60,this is where I should have been waiting to enter.Next week when I am using Scottrade I plan to expand my opportunities greatly,as of right now EENC and PGH are my only canroys available.Eager to get into the pink sheet canroys like HTE.

Concerning FRO,the price seems to have been adjusted down fro the dividend,butits not showing last weeks highs.After the expiration date,it really should plunge,am I correct?

Spike ZICA s forming a somewhat strange looking decending triangle,5.47 being the floor,would you consider buying a break up from there at say 5.70?

cordially Tom

Good for you! FRO needs to fail the setup I'm long with first. But if it does fail, it could mean plunge, yes. But let's not put the cart before the horse. This has a real chance to make new highs.

ZICA, I'd steer clear of. Double top, with some savage selling. Better days for it later on.

[New-born baby]

Fro

lol New-born.

Thanks for the feedback. Always good to hear your views. Hate to disappoint you, but I'm gonna stick to the plan and tighten up my stop to tucked under the intraday inverted head. The weekly has this FRO postioned for a run at the Nov high, and if it is to fail today, that makes a double top, and there is no way I will hold a failed setup - especially like today's with the action we've seen intraday. Failure here, is big failure in my book, and it could dump pretty quick. Holding just ain't my style.

The attached chart is a good example of an inverted SHS with a nice move after a neckline break. Learn from this one people, it is a pattern that repeats, and repeats, and repeats, and will continue to repeat til the end of the market. Fact is, the inverted SHS is symbolic of our emotion as human beings. People won't change in this regard, so you can count this pattern as statistically in your favor, and therefore an edge. As I always say, no pattern is 100% right....and anyone still looking for that is in lala land. It just isn't going to happen. But, with some great discipline with stops, and with good r/r setups, you CAN have an edge on your side.

Thanks, Spike, for putting up with me. I value your opinion and TA knowledge very much. This FRO chart will be a real test of my fledgling skills.
Of course, I'm not reading FRO's chart. I am just marking down from experience what happens ex-date on good stocks.

I hope it does well for you. Fro is highly volatile: usually moving about $2 in any given day. I look for a $1-2 drop tomorrow. Why? We are not out of the ex-divy woods as of yet. By that I mean, the record date is 3/09/05. Divy hunters must hold until 3/10/05 in order to earn the divy. Then they can sell. My experience with divy-paying stocks is that this period between ex-date and record date+2 can be harrowing.

By the way: ELN down $1 today. Look out below.

[jiesen]

Thanks, Spike, for putting up with me. I value your opinion and TA knowledge very much. This FRO chart will be a real test of my fledgling skills.
Of course, I'm not reading FRO's chart. I am just marking down from experience what happens ex-date on good stocks.

I hope it does well for you. Fro is highly volatile: usually moving about $2 in any given day. I look for a $1-2 drop tomorrow. Why? We are not out of the ex-divy woods as of yet. By that I mean, the record date is 3/09/05. Divy hunters must hold until 3/10/05 in order to earn the divy. Then they can sell. My experience with divy-paying stocks is that this period between ex-date and record date+2 can be harrowing.

By the way: ELN down $1 today. Look out below.

NBB, I don't think that's quite true about the dividend. If you buy pre-ex and sell post-ex you should still receive the dividend on the dividend date, even if you don't own the stock anymore at that time. Only reason I can think why people would be purposely hanging onto a stock they would rather sell until that date would be if they are getting the dividend as shares of stock. That way they could sell it all with a single commission.

[Thomrich]

NBB, I don't think that's quite true about the dividend. If you buy pre-ex and sell post-ex you should still receive the dividend on the dividend date, even if you don't own the stock anymore at that time. Only reason I can think why people would be purposely hanging onto a stock they would rather sell until that date would be if they are getting the dividend as shares of stock. That way they could sell it all with a single commission.

Greetings,
Im not sure about FROs dividend structure,but most stocks you will need to hold from the ex date thru the record date to capture the dividend.

Im starting to think spike is on to something.Everyone in the world is expecting FRO to drop post div,The share price has already been adjusted,this could be heading north.

cordially Tom

[jiesen]

http://www.sec.gov/answers/dividen.htm

I think that by holding it past the ex-dividend date, then you are in effect holding it past the record date, as is recorded in the books. I have received dividends for stocks I've held fewer than 3 days before.

Besides, if you buy FRO at $53.5 on 3/2, and sell at $50 today, wouldn't you expect that dividend to come to you? Where would it go then if not to you? Nobody buying it at $50 today would get it! I don't think the company pockets the dividends from short term traders, or else there would be very little liquidity on days such as today, and you wouldn't see the price drop reflect the dividend immediately either.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen

Jiesen,

The dividend is due to the shareholder of record on March 9, 2005. The settlement date is three days after the trade date by law. Today is March 3, so you would not be the shareholder of record for March 9, 2005.

Otherwise, if one should sell it on March 7 (Mon), and the trade is actually settled on March 10th, you might be alright. But then, I've never had the guts to try it. I want that divy, and I am not eager to pay to test the system.

As for not paying the dividend on some shares, I'd expect that the company would be quite happy to forego paying a dividend on as many shares as possible.

Spike may very well be correct about the share price of FRO. Spike is most often right. But let me tell you what happened last time. I bought FRO at $50 and $51.90. These shares received the dividend. Prices rose to $54 before the ex-date, and fell to $48.50 on the ex-date open. On the ex-date I bought more FRO at 49.11, knowing that it was too late to get the first dividend, but also knowing that another divy was coming 2/23/05. The next day, and the following day, and the following day, and the following day, FRO fell each day to bottom at $44. Spike called a channel long day at $45 on the record date, but the bottom was the next day at $44.

Now, that is what I expect to happen here. And that is why I am saying I expect FRO to fall tomorrow. One thing going for FRO is the high oil prices. Tanker stocks are very much dependent upon oil prices.

My experience with Cans is the same. Take PMT this month. Was 17.85. Ex-date thru record date it fell to 16.84. Then it starts working its way up again. Today it closed at 17.27. I expect it'll be 17.85 by the next ex-date.

Please correct me if I am wrong. And thank you for your comments. I want to learn. Please continue to post your comments here.

[spikefader]

....everyone in the world is expecting FRO to drop post div ......could be heading north.
cordially Tom

Yup. I really like this chart. The fact that the channel long coincides perfectly with the volume by price support, and a possible 12345abc is encouraging. I really think this is going up.

[New-born baby]

Floyd

FRO was up today during the ex-divy hinterland.


"You don't say!"

[Thomrich]

Yup. I really like this chart. The fact that the channel long coincides perfectly with the volume by price support, and a possible 12345abc is encouraging. I really think this is going up.

Greetings,
All I can say is if I had Spikes "Stones" and TA abilities Id feel much better about trading the market.

PGH cost me by setting a stop,I should have known these post dist dips are very short lived.When you find a group like canroys that have been in an uptrend for the last year,only a fool should lose money,IE me.

When I switch to scottrade Ill have many more options to trade,and if I can get the timing down,rotating between EENC,ERF,PWI,PVX,PGH,and PTF should allow for some nice gains,as they drop at different times of the month.


I dont care much for Jim Cramer,but he said something very interesting tonight.Everyone is expecting home builders and energy to burst,he claims homebuilders are like property banks,and since nobodys making any more land ,the commodity will go up as population grows.

Oil is very similar until they come up with an alternative,T Boone Says 60 this summer,maybe next week.

I thought I saw a wedge building on EENC today,and bought in,I know Spike warned on this one,so I am watching it close.Betting on a rise from here to dist announce,which has a good chance of increasing this month.

cordially Tom