New-born Baby's Cans: Making Money in a Down Market

[New-born baby]

Tomrich

Tomrich,

Thank you for posting here. Always good to hear what you are doing. I always hope for the very best success for you. I felt bad for that $1600 you dropped the other day--I've done the same thing before, too. (I really felt bad for King/ELN. I wouldn't blame him for dumping because if they lose Tysabri, they have nothing left. Cans have oil, and you can always sell oil).

Please take this with a grain of Spike: I wouldn't dump EENC/PGH/PWI if she falls back $1 on me. No need to ever take a loss on a Can. Wait for the next divy and get out if you wish. Or else, wait for a bottom and double or triple up, and thus work your way out. Save that $$$$$ because it is hard to come by. When I say wait for a bottom, an easy way to do it is wait a month. You'll see the price action, and you can note the bottom and go from there. Patience is the key.

Oil is sky high and demand by China and India is only increasing. These Cans are good and safe plays.

I'll keep you posted with my next play. Cashed in lots of stocks to buy a house.

[IIC]

FRO was up today during the ex-divy hinterland.


"You don't say!"

Ya know...Andy griffith is right up there with my other 2 Faves...Leave it To Beaver and Ozzie and Harriet...I'm serious!!!



Actually Miss Canfield was my fave...although I don't remember her looking like that on the show.

As far as Ozzie...which David must have the rights to since it is never on Cable reruns...My fave was Wally Plumstead...he was pretty funny.

[spikefader]

...PGH cost me by setting a stop,I should have known these post dist dips are very short lived.When you find a group like canroys that have been in an uptrend for the last year,only a fool should lose money,IE me.

I thought I saw a wedge building on EENC today,and bought in,I know Spike warned on this one,so I am watching it close.Betting on a rise from here to dist announce,which has a good chance of increasing this month.

cordially Tom

Ah don't be too hard on yourself. It's still a significant channel break. Wisdom is to set a good escape plan. There was no guarantee of the bounce, and hindsight is always 20/20. It could have turned south like IIG did. And if it had you'd be smiling.

Actually with EENC, there is a channel long on the weekly as well as the daily like the previous chart (wherever I put it). It's looking much better since the moment I said it looked slippery. You'll probably be fine.

[spikefader]

FRO: Still no channel break or expansion on the daily, although this morning just dropped to tag the channel again and signal a new channel long. I'm going to give this some wiggle room until the channel is clearly broken.

[New-born baby]

FRO: Still no channel break or expansion on the daily, although this morning just dropped to tag the channel again and signal a new channel long. I'm going to give this some wiggle room until the channel is clearly broken.

Spike,

I thought you might take profits on FRO and re-enter later. It is acting today like I thought it might do on Friday. What I think (not too good at that!) is happening is that shorters are attacking the stock this morning. I have no evidence of that, but the short interest has been known to be very high in the past.

Still, I like FRO and will pick some up before the next divy. Oil price is everything to tanker stocks that operate on the open market like this one.

[canaveraldan]

Hi NBB,
I'm nervious about jumping into FDG right now too. I'm looking at BTU another Coal Company getting ready for a 2-1 split. I doesn't have the Div yield of FDG but it's has good fundamentals. It's chart looks like it may be a safer entry then FDG. FRO is still dropping. I might buy into FRO if it drops to 42.

[New-born baby]

FRO, et al

Hi NBB,
I'm nervious about jumping into FDG right now too. I'm looking at BTU another Coal Company getting ready for a 2-1 split. I doesn't have the Div yield of FDG but it's has good fundamentals. It's chart looks like it may be a safer entry then FDG. FRO is still dropping. I might buy into FRO if it drops to 42.

CAN--

I see FRO hitting between $45 and $44. Perhaps $42 is obtainable. I think what you'll see is FRO forming a 3 month cup. We are currently working our way down now! But that $3.50 divy is coming, and add in another 15% of SFL, and the price will rebound sooner or later. Plus high oil prices mean more profits for FRO. These tanker stocks are highly volatile. You just have to keep a bottle of Tums handy between now and the next divy.

FDG: my gut tells me that $93 is the buy point between now and March 29/
FDG is going to pay $1.30 divys on all the shares: including the 3:1 shares. That makes for a 3X$1.30=3.90 divy per quarter! Multiply that by 4 and you get $15.60 per share you buy now! Looks good to me. I want some.

I advise patience with FDG. Like I said, my gut says $93.65 entry. I could be very wrong. We shall see. BTU is a good company, too; but I like FDG better for now.

[New-born baby]

Fro

Fro hit $44.85 this morning. I don't know if that is the absolute bottom or not. I'd say it is near it. However, I am looking for one more red day (tomorrow) out of Fro. OF course, I could be very wrong. We shall see!

[spikefader]

Fro hit $44.85 this morning. I don't know if that is the absolute bottom or not. I'd say it is near it. However, I am looking for one more red day (tomorrow) out of Fro. OF course, I could be very wrong. We shall see!

Clear channel break now, and every reason to look for an exit, which is what I'll be attempting to do at the next upper channel touch, with stop under today's low of 44.89. I actually tried to extricate myself from the second half yesterday but was too optimistic with my limit order :/

This has become a headache with the gap down this morning, and an example of how attempting to exit with limit orders can leave one stuck in a position.
Clearly an error in discipline on my part.

On the bright side, the gap down has been aggressively bought this morning, and there is a good chance this has found the support it was looking for. It just doesn't set up well with channels any more, and I'll be glad to exit this silly trade

[New-born baby]

Silly? With a 20+% dividend!

Clear channel break now, and every reason to look for an exit, which is what I'll be attempting to do at the next upper channel touch, with stop under today's low of 44.89. I actually tried to extricate myself from the second half yesterday but was too optimistic with my limit order :/

This has become a headache with the gap down this morning, and an example of how attempting to exit with limit orders can leave one stuck in a position.
Clearly an error in discipline on my part.

On the bright side, the gap down has been aggressively bought this morning, and there is a good chance this has found the support it was looking for. It just doesn't set up well with channels any more, and I'll be glad to exit this silly trade

Spike,

I am not ready to call your trade of FRO silly. It is clear that my trading system and your system is different. One reason for the difference is that you read charts much better than I. I also am a dividend chaser almost exclusively (there are exceptions). I like the golden parachute if I can have it.

Prudent people don't give unasked for advice, so I should shut up. But here it is anyway because I'd hate to see you drop any cash. FRO might be red tomorrow, but not lower than today's low. I think bottom was $44.85, right where the support on the chart was supposed to be. Today is 3 red days in a row, and tomorrow I expect to be 4, but then I am a buyer!

Divy is due in 3 months at $3.50. She just can't stay under $45 with that kind of divy every quarter. And then there's 15% more of SFL they are going to give you, too. That exceeds 20+%! 5 quarters of this and the stock is free!

In short, it may not be your style of investing, but this trade can work out for you if you'll patiently wait for it to do so. I would expect that you could work your way out of it at even next week or this Friday if you can hold on a day or two.

These ex-date drops are normal for FRO and all the big divy payers (imho).
Lastly, if I have a profit, and the trade starts to turn against me, I use the IIC rule: if in doubt, get out!

God bless the Spike!

[spikefader]

Thanks Newborn.

I appreciate the input, and would never tell you, or anyone for that matter, to hush. It's good to know as much about an issue as possible, especially if it's a contrary view! Best to ya.

[canaveraldan]

FRO at 45 this morning. I jumping in today.

[New-born baby]

Fro

FRO at 45 this morning. I jumping in today.

Can,

Yes, I think that's about it for FRO. Yesterday I watched her hit $44.85 and I thought that might be about it. I can't guess the bottom perfectly. And yesterday was the record date, so people could jump off the wagon and still get the $3.50 and free SFL shares. It is possible it may fall a little the next couple of days, but my view is that the divy will bring buyers into the market by May.

[New-born baby]

Fro

FRO-ITes,

Well, she hit $44.85 again this morning, and my gut tells me that's just about the bottom. Of course, I am not Omniscient, so I could be wrong. Still, that $3.50 divy acts as an magnet to draw the price back up. I see $60 by next ex-date. Might be a good time to enter.

[New-born baby]

FRO Math lesson

FRO-ITES.

FRO is currently $44.75.
Divy is $3.50 times 4 quarter in a year = $14.00

$14.00 divy divided by $44.75= 31.28%

PLUS free shares of SFL coming May (the last 15% of SFL).

Seems like a good deal to me . . . .