Skiracer's stock slopes

[skiracer]

SKI and others,
So I boght HGTC @ 13.7 and they reported terrible earnings caused by a one time 2.3 million expense. Down to 13.0 in after hours. Wondering whether I should sell tommorow at the open or whether I should hold. My inclination is to hold because this is not a very volatile stock and there seems to be resistence @ 13. Also, because it was a one time expense, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the company. Would appreciate any insight that many years of looking at such situations might have produced.

Whiz,
Have you worked out any type of plan or trading strategy that you are beginning to adhere to. Like a specific maximum stop loss percentage that you will not violate. Right now the afterhours are only a reaction to the news. Is there anything with the expense that would lead you to believe that it will carry over into the morning opening price? I would be patient and wait it out.

A 7 % stop loss would be at 12.75. Would you feel comfortable just walking away from that on the concept that it will have violated one of your primary rules if it goes below that level. You're not there yet and the 7 % may be higher than you would want to tolerate so if at a closer percentage of say 4 or 5 you would already have breached that stop loss point. If you haven't set these rules in place for yourself you have to give them some consideration.

In the meantime I would be patient to see what happens at the open. The premarket and afterhours are alot of times the hysterical traders who are overreacting to some event that happened after the close. It's hard to discount these events at times but it is better not to overreact either. If you set a stop now at say 12.75 or 7% from your initial entry and the one time expense is so heavy duty that the stock opens below 12.75 then you're out immediately at that level and you can do nothing about it but if you are able to sit and watch what happens for awhile you might be able to salvage some loss.

Just be patient maintain contol of the trade whichever way it goes. That is the primary factor here at this point.

[peanuts]

HWCC and the IBD screen

Had you posted it on your watchlist? I don't remember seeing it anywhere...

Ski,

HWCC first made my IBD 100 screen on Aug 26 (my birthday): LINK
It was dropped the following week for being to far below its 52 week high
It did not make the screen again until Oct 13: LINK
It was dropped from the screen last week due to the closeness to its 52 week high- this part of the screen removes some negative volatility stocks, but can also eliminate breakout candidates.

Here is the criteria that HWCC last met in the screen:
IBD's RSI and EPS rankings above 93
last Q's EPS change was > 50%
ROE above 30
price within a 5-15% of 52 week high

[Websman]

He's talking about HTGC.

After Hours it is at 13.00 but only on a paltry 1600 shs...But I agree with Webs...Watch the pre-m action but wait at least 25 mins before you consider selling...Good Luck, Doug(IIC)

I wouldn't consider 1600 shares a sell off. It would definitely be a mistake to dump it at the open.

[IIC]

Ski,

HWCC first made my IBD 100 screen on Aug 26 (my birthday): LINK
It was dropped the following week for being to far below its 52 week high
It did not make the screen again until Oct 13: LINK
It was dropped from the screen last week due to the closeness to its 52 week high- this part of the screen removes some negative volatility stocks, but can also eliminate breakout candidates.

Here is the criteria that HWCC last met in the screen:
IBD's RSI and EPS rankings above 93
last Q's EPS change was > 50%
ROE above 30
price within a 5-15% of 52 week high

HWCC was on the the IIC 100 back on 8/7...Unfortunately I don't have access to the info on my laptop that would tell me why it was later dropped...Doug

[skiracer]

Ski,

HWCC first made my IBD 100 screen on Aug 26 (my birthday): LINK
It was dropped the following week for being to far below its 52 week high
It did not make the screen again until Oct 13: LINK
It was dropped from the screen last week due to the closeness to its 52 week high- this part of the screen removes some negative volatility stocks, but can also eliminate breakout candidates.

Here is the criteria that HWCC last met in the screen:
IBD's RSI and EPS rankings above 93
last Q's EPS change was > 50%
ROE above 30
price within a 5-15% of 52 week high

Well you certainly had it before me but in all honesty I can't remember seeing it on your list but that was two weeks ago and that would be hard for me to remember. But you did have it. It still moved above where you first posted on it by 1.25. You show it at 22.25 and I didn't pick it up until it was at 23.50. I like the canslim criteria for leading candidates but very seldom have a chance to see what they are for a stock except for your list. Well we both missed it at different points. It was a great opportunity. Keep an eye on SMSI for this coming week.

[Tatnic]

SKI and others,
So I boght HGTC @ 13.7 and they reported terrible earnings caused by a one time 2.3 million expense. Down to 13.0 in after hours. Wondering whether I should sell tommorow at the open or whether I should hold. My inclination is to hold because this is not a very volatile stock and there seems to be resistence @ 13. Also, because it was a one time expense, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the company. Would appreciate any insight that many years of looking at such situations might have produced.

Holding a speculative stock like that into earnings is quite a gamble. If you believe in its future, then hold it. But if its gonna keep you up at night worrying then sell it or at least pare back your position to a more comfortable level.

[Runner]

Whiz, it is best to know where you’ll get out of a trade before you get in. many ways you can do this but bottom line is find what you are comfortable with based off your risk tolerance. If you’re new to this game I suggest trading with few shares and not worry about making money right now. Come up with a trading plan and adjust as needed.

To many traders take a whopping and then they get into the “I can’t sell it now”, phase. This often ties up money for a long time and nobody can say for certain if the stock will come back to your purchase price. In fact this is how many traders accumulate what I call a REAL LONG position. I’ve done it and I’d bet most on this forum have also. What ever you do best with your position.

[Gwhiz]

Thanks for the insight.
I am currently setting stops at levels that seem to be resistance, or I feel like the trade has gone wrong if it reaches that level. For example I am at 5.00 w/ PACT,(I'm in for the long term) 12.80 w/ ERS, 27.60 w/ Iaac.

[Runner]

Thanks for the insight.
I am currently setting stops at levels that seem to be resistance, or I feel like the trade has gone wrong if it reaches that level. For example I am at 5.00 w/ PACT,(I'm in for the long term) 12.80 w/ ERS, 27.60 w/ Iaac.

careful with setting stops that are obvious. The MM's like to often swoop down and grab some stops.

[Runner]

Ski back to BTU here is what I see on the daily. I very well might be a buyer over the R-line...

[skiracer]

Sorry that I missed posting the open and closing prices on this watchlist last night. Very busy with some reports and other paperwork. Here is todays spreadsheet. This is shaping up as a pretty good week. It would have been an awesom week if I hadn't missed HWCC.

[peanuts]

planning the plan

SKI and others,
So I boght HGTC @ 13.7 and they reported terrible earnings caused by a one time 2.3 million expense. Down to 13.0 in after hours. Wondering whether I should sell tommorow at the open or whether I should hold. My inclination is to hold because this is not a very volatile stock and there seems to be resistence @ 13. Also, because it was a one time expense, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the company. Would appreciate any insight that many years of looking at such situations might have produced.

Gwhiz:

I don't know about "many years of looking at such situations," but... I took the time out to post this chart for you in another post, in another thread:

In that post I recommended that you form a plan at that very moment- pick an entry, pick a profit target, pick a stop loss. That should have been your plan, and you should stick to it the absolute best that you can.

Now you are in a situation where you regret your buy because you just made it when you felt like it (because $13.70 was a bad entry)- so you're freaking out a little bit because your stock is in the red. Furthermore, you did not know how many percentage points you were looking to get out of the stock, nor did you decide the amount you were willing to lose. Now, when the stock does something that you did not expect, you are stuck without knowing what you are going to do, and regretting that you even bought a potentially great stock.

The best advice given to you about HTGC was for you to form a trading plan before you enter. Now, your best advice is to FORM A TRADING PLAN TO EXIT. You obviously have no grasp on the fundamental value of the stock, nor can you get a good idea of the technical pivot points... I'm not sure why you ever bought this???

Look, I'm not here to give you life lessons, so if you want to throw away your money, I'll be happy to be in line to take it. As a young kid, I was VERY bullheaded and thought I knew alot more than I really did (I'm probably still like this, in a sense). It's just my opinion, but you need to step back and think about the game you're playing, and with whom you are playing it. There are people out there with millions on the line with just one trade... do you think that they form a plan before putting their money on the line? Do you think that this would be a good idea? Do you think that someone who plans their trade on both ends will have better success than someone that goes on their gut? Do you think that you should learn from other's successes?

I don't mean to sound harsh, dude. But it took me a few thousand dollars of market "tuition" in order for me to figure out this important aspect to trading (form a plan). I didn't much care for that (losing $), so I figured that other's would appreciate the advice. I hope you do, too.

You will learn more from this forum than you actually realize.

[skiracer]

Whiz,

All advice is life lessons. When you ask for someone's opinion you usually end up with some degree of life lessons. Peanuts is right. Just be patient and think about what you would like to do and how you might go about doing it. Ask NB for an option plan of some nature. There just might be a way of hedging the position with some puts or selling some calls. That might be an avenue to explore. Earth to NB please come in.

[IIC]

careful with setting stops that are obvious. The MM's like to often swoop down and grab some stops.

Do you really believe that MM's are watching our stops?...Unless, you have stops out there that are worth over $250,000 I think it is highly unlikely that an MM is watching your holdings...And even then it would be a longshot.

But unfortunately there may be many stops at about the same price as your stop...So if they come down to wipe them out you simply get caught up in the pack. However, I do not believe it is market makers...I'm sure you've seen a stock that all of a sudden gaps way down on one trade during the day...All deals are not online deals...Doug

[Runner]

Do you really believe that MM's are watching our stops?...Unless, you have stops out there that are worth over $250,000 I think it is highly unlikely that an MM is watching your holdings...And even then it would be a longshot.

But unfortunately there may be many stops at about the same price as your stop...So if they come down to wipe them out you simply get caught up in the pack. However, I do not believe it is market makers...I'm sure you've seen a stock that all of a sudden gaps way down on one trade during the day...All deals are not online deals...Doug

I bet they look at charts just like we do. I bet they know where support and Resistance is located at. I bet he has to feed his family also. Point is if it is obvious to me then it is also obvious to others and if one places stops right at support then they stand a good chance of getting stopped. I know they are not watching my stops per say but they know where clusters are located. Them jokers are good Doug and in fact I bet they tricked you into a day trade by painting the candles you watch.