Skiracer's stock slopes

[skiracer]

A couple of nice plays unfolded today. One by Riverbabe in her position in TGT. She exits the position at 59.21 for a 1.40 gain that translates into 3.1 %. Very nice River for a two day play. I had mentioned that I thought TGT was looking a little overextended to me and I was stalking it for a short play. She got out in front of a 1.38 drop from a high today of 59.65 to close at 58.27. Great timing on the exit. I was stalking it for the short play but never made the entry. I was thinking that 59.20 would have been a nice entry on the short but I missed it today at that level. Webs did very well with his MRVL trade and closed it out today at 19.88 for a gain of 1.40 that translates into a 7.6 % gain. Great play Webs.
I liked the TGT setup today but the one that I really liked was WYNN.
This turned out to be a beautiful short setup and closed down 4.57 at 91.70 from it's high today of 96.27. I still like this one to the short side and would still take it short from this level as there is plenty of room underneath this level for profit taking. I hated to miss this one today but management duties sometimes takes me away from the screen. I think WYNN could easily see the low 80's and fill that gap between 86 and 82. I think you'll see a small pop tomorrow and then it stalls out as profit taking starts selling into any strength.
I wouldn't say that I'm disappointed in MED by any means because I'm up about 1.5 points with the trade but it stalled out at that 10.50 level today from a high of 11 this morning. I have to attribute that to profit taking from underneath these levels by strictly short term traders. That's normal. I did like the fact that it rebounded from it's low of the day at 10.20 on double it's normal average volume. So that translates into an accumulation day. Some selling and profit taking into strength and some heavier accumulation on the buy side. Here's todays sheet:

[Gwhiz]

Skiracer,

PACT reports on monday, and I was wondering if you could see if you think it has been accumulated by the smart money, just like you predicted very that MED was accumulated by the smart money.

Would appreciate your input.

Also, how do ou tell when it is being accumulated by the smart money?

[Websman]

Skiracer,

PACT reports on monday, and I was wondering if you could see if you think it has been accumulated by the smart money, just like you predicted very that MED was accumulated by the smart money.

Would appreciate your input.

Also, how do ou tell when it is being accumulated by the smart money?

Unless you have inside information, buying before earnings is a gamble. Ski rolled the dice on MED and won, but Ski is also a better trader than I am.

[Gwhiz]

If I am correct about how to read the smart money, PACT has been accumulated by the smart money.

Just harvesting the product of years of invaluable experience.

Thanks Skiracer

[Gwhiz]

I own PACT at 5.93

[skiracer]

Unless you have inside information, buying before earnings is a gamble. Ski rolled the dice on MED and won, but Ski is also a better trader than I am.

You shouldn't say that Webs. I don't think that and certainly don't feel that way. I would say that I spend more of my time with it, doing it, and studying it than you do. My situation maybe gives me more of an opportunity to do that. But results are the bottom line and results come from a strict discipline and strategy implemented into a well devised plan. I consider myself a good trader but I have been lucky to buy into the strict discipline and plan parts of all this and it has worked for me and will work for anyone who spends the time doing that for themselves. I don't consider myself better than anyone else here in any way. The biggest thing for me, next to making money, is the interaction and hoping that whatever that I am doing that makes me successful will rub off and help others to be able to pick up some of my ideas and make themselves better as a result of them. I'm just lucky that I love trading stocks to such a degree that I can't get enough of it or interacting with others on the subject. Because of that love for it I study everyones styles and strategies looking for anything that will help me become better at it. If anything I am blessed with that love for it and that has translated into whatever I have evolved into. That and a little racing luck along with it. We all need some of that to go along with our discipline. But I do believe we all have the ability to create our own luck and to make the edge, which sometimes appears to be luck, in our favor. Those are the only differences.

[skiracer]

Skiracer,

PACT reports on monday, and I was wondering if you could see if you think it has been accumulated by the smart money, just like you predicted very that MED was accumulated by the smart money.

Would appreciate your input.

Also, how do ou tell when it is being accumulated by the smart money?

Perhaps I should have used the term big money instead of smart money because that is what I meant. And the bigger money is usually the institutional money and they have much larger amounts available to use than us smaller accounts. They aren't necessarily smarter than us.
When I'm stalking a stock I usually have been watching it for awhile before I ever mention it here. There are specific patterns I look for. When I see one that fits and it goes on one of my watchlists I start studying the accumulation and distribution days on it's chart. I have some sites, MSN Money for one, where I can see how much institutional money is coming into the stock and I watch to see if the percentage is increasing or decreasing. The institutional money has it alot harder than we do because of the regulations governing how they operate and because of the amounts they are investing. They cannot just go out and buy up millions of dollars and shares of a stock without giving out a signal that they are interested in that specific stock which would or could create a buying frenzy when people realize they are interested and buying and then the stocks price would escalate and the stock would cost them more to get it for themselves. So they have to be very subtle and secretive in their actions and they usually start accumulating much earlier than we realize. I watch for when institutional support, buying of a stock, starts to increase. The chart usually doesn't show that immediately but that is one signal. Another is when you see that a stocks average daily volume has begun to increase subtly and that the accumulation days are beginning to outnumber the distribution days. When the accumulation days really start to outnumber the distribution day it's a dead giveaway that bigger money is moving in subtly and sometimes not so subtly.
I look for specific chart patterns and like I mentioned above for volume, which is money, on the accumulation side. MED happened to be a good stock that had the misfortune of having some bad press by StockLemon.com about their business model and they got beaten down because of it. I had traded the stock on a few other occassions so I knew the stock and was familiar with it's fundamentals. I'm a technical analysis based short term trader but believe me before I trade any stock I know that stock fundamentally to a pretty good degree. I was watching the volume and the money coming into it for awhile in front of the earnings report. I also was studying the chart pattern and it was developing into a double bottom and coming off the second bottom forming the right side of it's cup. I made a trade a few weeks earlier in MED where I exited the trade with a 7% loss. No big deal in my mind but I kept watching it because the money was still coming steadily into the stock and the institutional support had risen from around 30% to 41.5 % even though alot of days were below average daily volume of around 500,000.
In the course of stalking the stock I had called their corporate offices several times and talked to their investor relations officer and their CFO about their business model and how it was developing. They aren't really allowed by law to give out any numbers or how their earnings look but you can get the gist of how they are doing by asking certain questions. Everything looked great coming into the earnings report. The chart was exhibiting a specific pattern that I love, the accumulation days were far outnumbering the distribution days, the institutional support was increasing dramatically, everyone that I had spoken to at the corporate offices were estactic about their growth potential and the way their business model was developing, and the chart was exhibiting momentum to the upside but subtly. All in all it was an educated guess where the edge was definitely in what I thought was in my favor with the risk vs. reward and the most that I was going to lose on my entry at 9.04 was .63 or 7%. I had a much greater upside potential. I don't usually play them right in front of earning like this but like Webs said it was a roll of the dice where most of all the relevant factors had placed the edge in my favor. It was just an educated guess. I don't guess weights and ages but I try to place the edge in my favor all the time by doing exactly as I just explained. It works for me but that doesn't mean that it will work for you but it is a good way to look at some types of trades. I'll take a look at PACT in a little bit.

[skiracer]

Whiz,
I really haven't been watching PACT very closely but here is a chart and a capture of MSN Money's ownership numbers. Sorry but at this time I don't see anything there that interests me. The ownership numbers could be a little older but the volume as shown on the chart and the fact that it has been on a big slide down for a while now doesn't make me want to run out and buy it.
I don't know what it will do in front of earnings or what the earnings report will look like when they do report but when a stock is under accumulation the chart usually shows more upside than this one does right now. The daily chart does look a little better but to me it is to much of a gamble at this point to own it through earnings. To me it appears to be struggling to much to gain any upside. The daily does look better that the weekly with what looks to be a small double bottom forming but still under the long trend line down even with a little more volume coming into it on the daily chart. I know you own it and at this point are above your 5.93 entry. Make sure you protect what you have at this point. There is no need to gamble with so many issues to trade but making the edge in your favor is the key if you are going to take a risk. One thing you do have going in your favor here is that there is some upside to the 7.50 level but it still looks to be more of a gamble to me. Good luck.

[Gwhiz]

Thank you Skiracer!

That's exactly the kind of input I was looking for.

Here was basically the extent of my thought on PACT.

Bounced back very nicely from 5.60, which was just above the 50 day MA.
That looked really nice and telegraphed itself before it happened.

It also looked like it had been trashed excessively by the market, but i do not know enough about value investing and intrinsic value to know whether it is truly undervalued. And that was about it.

Anyway, thank you for dropping some knowledge, thats why I participate in this forum.

[skiracer]

Thank you Skiracer!

That's exactly the kind of input I was looking for.

Here was basically the extent of my thought on PACT.

Bounced back very nicely from 5.60, which was just above the 50 day MA.
That looked really nice and telegraphed itself before it happened.

It also looked like it had been trashed excessively by the market, but i do not know enough about value investing and intrinsic value to know whether it is truly undervalued. And that was about it.

Anyway, thank you for dropping some knowledge, thats why I participate in this forum.

Well I'm glad it helped you out. I'm not an authority on value investing either. There are certain fundamentals that I look for as I stated. When a chart is giving off a signal or I see a pattern that I know is one I like or that I should stay away from I react accordingly. You're exhibiting intelligence beyond your years by acknowledging that you can learn alot here at this forum. Be like a sponge and absord as much as you can. When saturated squeeze out the stuff that isn't for you and suck up more. It's the best way to create a broad knowledge and experience base. Good luck with that trade.

[Gwhiz]

out of PACT @ 6.15

[riverbabe]

Bot AAPL 85.24

[peanuts]

Good day, Ski!

entered SMSI @ 17.00

I now have to sit idly by and wait...

[riverbabe]

Sold ARRS 12.30 (finally got way too tired of waiting for this one to do anything, and no impetus in sight).

[Runner]

Ski pay day on MTW @ 57.10
Stopped RES 22.00