Skiracer's stock slopes

[skiracer]

Spike,
Thanks for your take on it. Another up day on higher than average volume to close up .36 at 11.58. Finally got a plus on those options although not much.
Up .05 to .40 bid .60 asked and not a single contract trade on the Dec. 12.50 calls. I'm just sitting on them in a waiting mode and the same with the stock. Although with the stock I placed a stop at $11.00 I feel the same as you being bullish on the stock and feel confident it will go to 12.50 over the short term. Looks like the markets are going to give some help. Hypothetical question for you. If the stock does go to 12.50 and the 12.50 call becomes "in the money" wouldn't the call have to go up? I mean could the call possibly not go up even if the stock were to go over the strike price of the call? Still 51 days left in the option.

[skiracer]

Ray,
I really like MOT and will definitely be in at 21.26 and do exactly as I said with the trade if it triggers at that, but please don't do anything on my sayso. If I'm in at 21.26 my first stop will be placed exactly at 7% or 19.77. That's absolutely for sure with me regardless of what Morpheus would set their stop at. They are a little more liberal than me. At 19.77 I'm risking 1.48 to make 2.00. That's a r/r of .74 which is high but that's the bottom line. The stock could go higher, like you're expecting to 25/26 range, which would be great and would lower the r/r considerably but I would be happy with 23.25 range. I've made alot of money with this outfit so I usually follow their lead but not without due dilligence on my part. I've said this before about this outfit. They have more losers than winners but they cut the losers off short and let the winners run out until they stall or get stopped out. That insures a winning %. Another thing with them is that they always take some off the table at some point in the trade, usually 40/50% after they have captured a certain amount of gains in the position. Sometimes I will do that and sometimes I'll let it ride but 99% of the time I will not let the gains go after I have them at a specific point in the trade. Today was a great day for the markets in general and tomorrow could easily be just the opposite. Good luck.

Ray,

I placed a buy order for MOT this morning at 21.26 an it triggered so I'm in the trade. I like the market right now and think that will play a major factor in how MOT will trend. As I stated in an earlier post I would be setting a stop at 7% below my initial entry which would put the stop at 19.77. The daily and weekly chart both look good to me with the weekly giving a channel long signal recently. If the markets keep this upward trend it will definitely increase MOT's chances of hitting my target range. I'll keep you abreast of how I'm playing it.

[billyjoe]

Ski and Ray,
MOT does look good and we all deserve at least a minor boom after the torture of the past few months. That's one reason I'm staying in the game so when it happens I won't be on the sidelines. Let's hope MOT is the beginning.

billyjoe

[Runner]

Ski took a look at MOT’s weekly and was wondering if it might try to form a S/H/S off 22.00 area? What is your take on this? I know this is pure speculation but I thought it might be worth bringing up..

[Runner]

Ski sorry about the mix up. Chart above is a daily... longg dayy

[RL]

Thanks Ski sure do APPECIATE your guidance.

[spikefader]

Spike,
.....Hypothetical question for you. If the stock does go to 12.50 and the 12.50 call becomes "in the money" wouldn't the call have to go up? I mean could the call possibly not go up even if the stock were to go over the strike price of the call? Still 51 days left in the option.

From my experience yes, once she's in the money both interest in them and traded volume should rise, and price will be more in line with expectations. You've still got time on your side, but once it gets inside a month that premium disappears pretty quickly, especially the more out of the money it is. Those low vol options can be a nightmare if you're out of the money. And the low vol stocks that are jumpy and spikey you may expect a certain price of the option to match the jump/drop in stock price, but due to the low interest in them the option price just sits there and you're left kicking the cat. It pays to trade in the money options for those low volume stocks. I see weekly resistance at 12.50 to 13.00 from last year, so choosing that strike option is probably a mistake, since price will resist that area and if it does hit 12.50 it may not stay there long enough for the options to move.

[spikefader]

MOT has some work to do

[skiracer]

Spike,
You're probably right with the PETS call options. My rationale in the beginning was that the stock was growing strong revenues and eps and felt that would be the driving factor behind the option going up but you logic does seem to hold water. Still 50 days or so in the time frame so I'm sitting it out awhile longer.
I got stopped out of the stock position yesterday at 11.00 so that's over an done with. Decent gain but I'm still disappointed with what I perceived as a decent stock with great potential for growth and price appreciation. Like you said these low volume issues are hard to judge sometimes.
Out of SNAK with anothe loss. Foolish on my part to hold into earnings. Really felt great about the company and where it was going but no cigar. Had removed the stop on it and was doing a physical thing with it to let it have some breathing room on earnings day and got caught in the rush to get out. Someone knew the report wasn't going to be up to snuff and the rush started way earlier than when the report was to come out. I was away from the screen and the next thing I knew it was under $4. Another example of not doing what you tell other people to do yourself and trading what you think and not what you see. Still doing that on occasion after all these years.
Sold off ABAX just because of the market conditions. Had a real decent gain on it from 13.10 an at the end of the day was just fed up with these markets. I really thought things were looking up at the end of yesterday but again couldn't have been farther from the truth. Took the gains an except for the call options and MOTam now in cash.
The business has been so busy an even mediocre help so hard to find that I have been away from the screens alot of late and it's hard to trade under those conditions. I feel that I've been in a fight over the last few weeks and need some time away from it all so I'm going to sit on the sidelines and just watch for a bit and let those two positions play themselves out.

Ray,
MOT is a good stock but without alittle help from the markets it doesn't have a chance to reach the target range we have talked about. I placed a stop at $19.77 but if the markets continue to fall through support areas I am probably going to bail much earlier. When the writing is on the wall and directly in front of you it pays to listen to what it is saying. Very disappointed with how the markets are playing out right now and the best mindset is not to try to buck what looks to be apparent more each day. We may get a boucne or two but it looks like it's one step forward and two steps backward right now. Good luck with it.

[RL]

SKY I sure agree with you, a real disappointment In MOT can not believe my loses this month got killed on CBI thats why I should not be doing this but I'm addicted.almost all cash just MOT and UNH.

[Lyehopper]

Ray We're all addicted here....

SKY I sure agree with you, a real disappointment In MOT can not believe my loses this month got killed on CBI thats why I should not be doing this but I'm addicted.almost all cash just MOT and UNH.

This is like AA for stock-trade-aholics Ray.lol.... I actually made pretty good returns in October. Thanks to a few good short trades, and Ski's ABAX long. I'm out of ABAX now though.... I'm mostly in cash right now too but I have a nice short list here waiting to go. Why don't you try a few (short term) short trades Ray, you'll like it.... It's like switching from beer to moonshine! Hey, if you're gonna be addicted.... why not go all the way.lol

[RL]

Ski, should I be In MOT or time to cut no movement on a big up day In the market

[skiracer]

Ray,
I would definitely stay in MOT for the time being. I posted the other day on the "Market Watch", thread that I was bearish on the markets in general and was looking for them to go down much farther. I didn't mean that tomorrow the bottom was going to fall out, an I could be dead wrong with those feelings, but I felt MOT showed decent strength through all of last week and Friday wasn't that bad of a day for the stock. I'll post a couple of charts later on after dinner on why I still like the position on MOT an how I'm playing it.
You're in from around $20.16 or so aren't you so protecting your gains to date and not giving back to much of them while giving the trade a decent chance to breathe an materialize into reaching your target is the priority right now. Remember you're in the drivers seat an ahead of the position right now so there is no need to become anxious. Developing a plan to protect what you have going with the position in this market is the priority.

[RL]

Thanks Sky, just the market dose not have a good feel

[spikefader]

Yeah RL, Ski is probably right. While I posted earlier what MOT faces I must observe this: You have MOT coming off a weekly channel long a few weeks ago. Price is threatening to take out that channel short on the daily, and that intraday triple top pattern. I'm bullish on the broader market from here, so I'm expecting MOT to do the work it needs to and get over the hump. Weekly channel long out-trumps the daily pattern, so you should stay quietly confident, and just worry about following the plan you've got.