Skiracer's stock slopes

[skiracer]

DMK came in with two new additions to his port. NYX at 73.70 and ININ at 17.

[skiracer]

Ski, I was wondering why you were shorting ACOR, any reasoning behind it?

It actually looks like a long to me if it comes down a bit more.

I picked up some NYX @ 73.70 and ININ @ 17

DMK,
Get an answer to you in the am ok. Been up since 4 am and had a really busy day. Just finished all my paperwork and am played out.

[skiracer]

Ski, I was wondering why you were shorting ACOR, any reasoning behind it?

It actually looks like a long to me if it comes down a bit more.

I picked up some NYX @ 73.70 and ININ @ 17

DMK,
You kind of answered the question for me. " if it comes down any more". I shorted it at 17 and the play was the right call in my opinion as it has fallen to close at 16.35 from that point. If it comes down anymore that could easily take it to below 16 which would have been over a point gain on the short play and perhaps more as the domino effect comes into play once the sell off starts to take effect. There are plenty of traders in way below 17 that would and could take their money off the table. I'm actually surprised that it hasn't fallen farther and faster than it has over the last few days since my entry at 17. I'm watching it close from here today. I think we'll see some initial strength this morning and some strong selling off into that strength. There are alot of guys that are bunched in there at close numbers in a short period of time on that big gap up. I think that it could easily fill some of that gap as they take profits. But that's what makes a horserace.

[Rob]

I don't know what brought that gap up on but ...

If you want to know, just google "Fampridine-SR".

[skiracer]

If you want to know, just google "Fampridine-SR".

I hardly ever know what these companies do Rob. And in all honesty could care less most of the time. But I do trade the news whenever I catch something that is earthshattering or really relevant such at what you just posted. Didn't know about that before this morning but I just picked this up on the Briefing.com newswires this morning. I would be watching it for a long play this morning maybe after 10 am but would not chase the gap at the open because it can be a sucker bet and more often than not they drop back to the previous days closing price after the first 1/2 to 1 hr. of trading. So it still might be a decent short play after the gap up and the momo guys take out their gains from the opening gap up. Depends on how strong the gap up is on the news. Usually it's the smaller lemming type retail guys who are chasing these gaps. The smart money is already in there way before this on the special privilige and insider news that we don't get first hand.
ACORAcorda Therapeutics: RangeTrader (16.35 ) -Update-
RangeTrader thinks ACOR worth keeping an eye on. This morning. Lazard, after meeting with numerous Neurologists is out raising their estimates and pricing assumptions, noting Fampridine-SR would be beneficial for their MS Patiennts. Target goes to $22 from$14..... ACOR as we all know, already had a huge run, and would not overstay my welcome in the name, but definitely one to watch here at $16.65.

[Runner]

Ski added to wmt @ 47.90
bot eln 15.55

[Runner]

Not sure how others do this but when I add to a position I treat it as if it is a brand new one.

[Gatorman]

bot ELN 15.66

[skiracer]

Not sure how others do this but when I add to a position I treat it as if it is a brand new one.

Runner,
I do the same thing myself. If it is a different entry price it's a different trade and position to me. Makes sense.

I had an buy order in for ACOR this morning but it didn't trigger and then ended up shorting it at 17.70 right after lunch. That high of 17.91 was just to much for it to hold.

[dmk112]

I just think you're playing with fire trying to call a top that way...it's basically same trying to catch a "falling knife" if the stock was dropping... IMO

Good luck with it, it does at this point look like a possible double top.

[dmk112]

Runner, still in the Q's short? What are you targeting?

[skiracer]

I just think you're playing with fire trying to call a top that way...it's basically same trying to catch a "falling knife" if the stock was dropping... IMO

Good luck with it, it does at this point look like a possible double top.

I'm watching the 15 min. intraday realtime charts and I see it stall with a couple of candles that are giving me those signals. I watched it spike up in the am and initially tried for a long in it just after 10 am but it didn't go and then I saw that it was spiking back up and topped out at 17.91. That's when I see the short play setting up and I like to wait until I get a clear feeling that it is going to go down. The worst that can happen is that I break even or lose maybe .15 or .20 tops. Were talking 220 tops with the commissions vs what I got today. I'm up 1.35 on the trade at the close today. That's a nice r/r. On 1000 shares I risk $220 to make $1350. Of course it always doesn't go the way you expect but it did this time. With those percentages working for me I could go 5 trades with losers and still break even. What makes it so good is that I'm sitting watching the stock fall on the raw data and time and sales screen and I see what is happening so it is a pretty educated guess in my opinion. But limiting the loss potential to $220 is the key.
It's just the way I see it an only my opinion, but the r/r numbers make sense vs the percentage of times it goes the way you expect it will. I love to find stocks that are in my opinion overextended or overbought. This is one of my favorite patterns and setups for a short play. Sooner or later they will exhibit those stalling signals and a large percentage of times they go just like this with ACOR. I really don't think of it as playing with fire since you are limiting the losses to a minor amount.
Another example is FMD right now. It has been going up with a vengenance and it setting up for a consolidation of those gains and a perfect setup for a short. I thought it would happen last Friday and then again on Monday or today. Still going up but I would bet my life that at some point soon it is going to have to stop and consolidate. Those watching and waiting for the inevitable will be the recipricents of that short play. There are alot of people in at much lower than todays close that are just waiting and watching and will protect those gains. That will produce the drop and the short play just like with ACOR today.

[billyjoe]

Damn ! MOT made earnings but missed revenues. Down over 10% after hours. Will probably sell in the morning.

-----------billyjoe

[skiracer]

What looked to be a worsening day in the am turned into not to bad a day by the close. I really like all of the stocks on this weeks list. I was thinking of taking ACOR long this morning after I saw that tidbit about it on Briefing.com's newswire. It was up .60 in the pre-market and opened right at the previous days closing price. I always wait until 10 am to do anything just to make sure whatever is happening will hold. I missed the trigger on ACOR and then caught the short setup right after lunch. The short turned out to be almost as good as the long play. If I had violated my rule about not doing anything before 10 I could have caught it at the open right at 16.35 level and rode it to 17.91 HOD and then shorted it on the reversal. People do this everyday with these particular situations when a stock reacts to news like this and runs up only to fall victim to the momo guys taking their gains. I shorted ACOR at 17.70 and am holding.
I was saying how much I like this weeks list and there are several stocks that I am now stalking closely for entry tomorrow if they present themselves the way I'm looking for.

ACLS: still holding. This stock has been in a decent runup and needed some consolidation. I'm down .09 and holding. Watch for a little more downside here tomorrow.
DFC: I think it is getting ready and I'm stalking for an entry tomorrow above 10.00 if it can hold that level.
ECOL: I love this play and still holding. It displayed remarkable strength today in that it came back from the LOD at 21.08 to close at 21.86. That is a .78 move off the low. Still up pretty good in the position.
FMD: Still waiting for that short play. It is coming.
I have to go out and will continue this in a bit.

[Lyehopper]

Damn ! MOT made earnings but missed revenues. Down over 10% after hours. Will probably sell in the morning.

-----------billyjoe

What? cell phone sales are down!!!!.... Wonder how much steel is used in your basic flip phone?