Skiracer's stock slopes

[skiracer]

Normally, I would do a favor like this for you, Ski, but you aren't going to get anything out of my results other than, "oh wow, that's cool"

You are approaching your weekly return in a totally different way than how I would approach it. I really can't get any good statistical information from your numbers, but it doesn't really matter. I'm more interested in the actual stocks in the portfolio, not what you make from them. But, I hope you do well.

The plays are there and documented exactly as I made them. You are the one that is talking about compounding the numbers. I didn't discredit your numbers although you did make a major mistake as Tatnic pointed out with FMD which I didn't even notice. The position sizing model and the account balance play a major factor in my calculations and how I look at it. But this conversation has made me see that I shouldn't be taking credit for gains which I haven't made yet. I'll revamp my thinking and adjust the sheet accordingly starting this coming week or I just forget about posting anything about gains or totals in that respect. It's really not necessary anyway.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Unless we are using exact dollar amounts for each entry position, the percentages gain/loss really are misleading. Although I try to be close in amount per position it often is impossible especially when a GOOG is put in the mix. However, any way you look at it a gain is better than a loss.

-----------billyjoe

[Tatnic]

Here is an example. say you risk 8% on each position. This means you bail at a 8% loss. Now if you are not selling for at least a 8% profit on each position and sell with only .50 or 2% profit then you have a negative expectancy system. This system would not be very profitable in the long term. This means you are willing to let a 8% loss occur and not an 8% profit. Does this make any sense?

yes that makes sense assuming everything works as you laid it out. But I still think that for the majority of investors, they'll achieve much better, long term (by that I mean years) gains if they keep things simple. Trading for most people is a losing proposition or that's my hunch. They'd be better off buying a proper mixture of stocks and bonds and adjusting that mixture periodically...at least that's my guess. People's biggest enemy is themselves.

[Runner]

Here is an example. say you risk 8% on each position. This means you bail at a 8% loss. Now if you are not selling for at least a 8% profit on each position and sell with only .50 or 2% profit then you have a negative expectancy system. This system would not be very profitable in the long term. This means you are willing to let a 8% loss occur and not an 8% profit. Does this make any sense?

Ski does this make any sense?

[Runner]

yes that makes sense assuming everything works as you laid it out. But I still think that for the majority of investors, they'll achieve much better, long term (by that I mean years) gains if they keep things simple. Trading for most people is a losing proposition or that's my hunch. They'd be better off buying a proper mixture of stocks and bonds and adjusting that mixture periodically...at least that's my guess. People's biggest enemy is themselves.

I think many will micro manage trades because they try to figure out every little tic and tack from intraday charts. Once the trade is on most fail to follow through with the plan. Sure you might take a few hits and that sucks but proper position sizing will always be key

[Runner]

This all leads to a very interesting disussion on exits. Most are only concerned with the entry. I'm very interested in exits and risk then making a quick buck..

[peanuts]

I didn't discredit your numbers although you did make a major mistake as Tatnic pointed out with FMD which I didn't even notice.

Ski, I'm not beyond making mistakes, or pointing out the error of my ways. What is the number that you have listed as the entry price for FMD?

[skiracer]

Ski does this make any sense?

Of course it does. You cannot escape the mathematics. If you are continually losing 7% stops outs and none of your positions are returning higher percentage gains then you are going to lose money. The difference being in position sizing and money management. Plus honoring your stops most of the time. I wouldn't say that I honor the 7% stop limit everytime but very close to that.

I should be using a different terminolgy in that the only ones that count really are the one's that are closed out for whatever reasons. As long as they are open you don't have anything except to say that the position is up or down a certain amount or percent. I'm going to go back over the whole thing and see exactly what has been closed and the gain or loss and the percent.

[ParkTwain]

Here is an example. say you risk 8% on each position. This means you bail at a 8% loss. Now if you are not selling for at least a 8% profit on each position and sell with only .50 or 2% profit then you have a negative expectancy system. This system would not be very profitable in the long term. This means you are willing to let a 8% loss occur and not an 8% profit. Does this make any sense?

But what are you assuming as the "success rate" (that is, the rate of successful trades, or positive outcomes, versus negative)? You certainly have a negative expectancy, for instance, if you assume (or, you know from your experience of your actual trades) that there is only a 50-50 chance of a -8% trade vs. a +2% trade.

Tharp's book goes over all of this. The trader must have already done some trades given his/her own trading methodology or system to have some history of the trading success rate. Using that success rate is required to determine whether you will have a negative or positive expectancy. There are systems, even mechanical ones, that produce a low success rate but each success produces a very high return. That combination can result mathematically in a positive expectation trading system.

[skiracer]

Ski, I'm not beyond making mistakes, or pointing out the error of my ways. What is the number that you have listed as the entry price for FMD?

I shorted it at $70. But I just looked and I did write 17 in the entry spot but the other open and closings are all in the 60's and 70's. I owe you an apology Peanut as that is my mistake initially for entering the wrong number but I used 70 when I entered the gain or loss. Sorry and my mistake. I see that I also entered it as 17 on the forum members portfolio spreadsheet.

[skiracer]

The watchlist is actually only up 2.93 % over the course of the 4 week period that I have been doing it. I've revised it so that it will only reflect the gains or losses on the closed positions. Sorry that I misled anyone. It wasn't intentional and was only meant to convey the gains or losses in the individual stocks each week. Somehow it got misconstrued. Mostly with the format that I used. If you were to look you would see that some weeks the open positions were carried over to the following week and the figures actually wouldn't have reflected the true gain or loss percentages, especially if the positions weren't closed out. Except for ACLS all the open positions from last week were carried over. And the 2.93 % doesn't reflect the true gains or losses according to my position sizing.

[skiracer]

Here are a few stocks that I will be adding to the watchlist this week.
ATHR - back on list again
MEK
HWCC
APLX
EFJI

[Runner]

Ski, here is a pretty cool program that can do all the work for you. You would not need to mess with excell. Here is the link. I think it cost about 30.00 not sure as I don't remember.http://www.tradetrakker.com/main.php

[skiracer]

Ski, here is a pretty cool program that can do all the work for you. You would not need to mess with excell. Here is the link. I think it cost about 30.00 not sure as I don't remember.http://www.tradetrakker.com/main.php

This does seem like a nice program for the money. They want $34.95. If it does all that it says it does then it has to be worth the money. Do you own it?

[Runner]

Ski I do own the program and I like it. I think the time delay is about 20 minutes. I also think it has a 30 day guarantee should it not be for you. here is a screen shot I took of the program. All you do is enter the tic and the rest of the info and that is it. It will update for you based on your criteria.