GGB ==> The Groundhog Day Winner

[Jim Smith]

GGB....China is a net exporter of steel....you might get lucky, but these sector is looking sickly.

[mrmarket]

GGB....China is a net exporter of steel....you might get lucky, but these sector is looking sickly.

earnings earnings earnings

[Jim Smith]

GGB will trade under $17 this spring IMO.....I see no need to jump into this one as the sector is getting shot.......The next 15% for GGB is down, get ready to marry this stock......At $17, or better yet $16.50, I may be a buyer myself.....I don't think I have the patience of this snail however.

[mrmarket]

GGB will trade under $17 this spring IMO.....I see no need to jump into this one as the sector is getting shot.......The next 15% for GGB is down, get ready to marry this stock......At $17, or better yet $16.50, I may be a buyer myself.....I don't think I have the patience of this snail however.

It's going up at a rate of about 8% per month, plus it pays a dividend. That's not too slow.

[spikefader]

GGB will trade under $17 this spring IMO.....I see no need to jump into this one as the sector is getting shot.......The next 15% for GGB is down, get ready to marry this stock......At $17, or better yet $16.50, I may be a buyer myself.....I don't think I have the patience of this snail however.

I value your input Jim, thanks! Always good to hear both sides of the boat

But I have to disagree as far as potential for 15%. The technicals are clearly bullish bias. Today anyway

Besides that chart count I posted earlier in the thread it's got a nice cup n handle back there, bullish island reversal in January, impulsive behavior, very bullish 'booming' weekly and daily regression channel action, nice volume, money flow is gorgeous....what's not to like. Perhaps those recent gap up on volume that could be better to argue for breakaway? But shoo, that ain't much bearish ammo. Now, if the 'c' fails, there's the bearish crack. And that's where my line is for it. Uner 19.70 'c' and I switch to neutral. Stop to even and let her run with green hope ya know.

Best to ya.

[skiracer]

GGB will trade under $17 this spring IMO.....I see no need to jump into this one as the sector is getting shot.......The next 15% for GGB is down, get ready to marry this stock......At $17, or better yet $16.50, I may be a buyer myself.....I don't think I have the patience of this snail however.

Jim,
You've got to substiante your position here. I'm prejudiced because I own 2000 shares of it but over an above that show me something in a chart or somewhere where it backs up what your saying. I've probably been as critical of Ernie's trades as anyone when I see something that I don't like with them. But you just can't say I think this or that without something to back it up. Steel as a sector isn't doing that badly. Here's Barcharts top 100 sectors and steel is #19.

[Jim Smith]

yeah, that was Feb 8.....How did steel do on Feb 9? Negative chart patterns for various steel stocks....Double tops on NUE and X.....GGB is in no man's land, imo....the 30 day exponential moving average has been support and still acts that way....break it and it's hello $17....IMO, the Dow heads to 10200 into APril with the SPX to 1200....can GGB ignore this? I doubt it.

[Runner]

[skiracer]

yeah, that was Feb 8.....How did steel do on Feb 9? Negative chart patterns for various steel stocks....Double tops on NUE and X.....GGB is in no man's land, imo....the 30 day exponential moving average has been support and still acts that way....break it and it's hello $17....IMO, the Dow heads to 10200 into APril with the SPX to 1200....can GGB ignore this? I doubt it.

Jim and Runner,
I have to agree with both of you to a point. There was a double top on the 10 min. chart with NUE today but the stock has been tracking steadily up and was due for some consolidation as were a good number of the steel stocks. And the steel sector looks to be in a 5th wave. I don't let myself look that far out or to predict that far out. I'm strictly short term and right now I'm up about .5 point with the trade so I'm going to give it some room to breathe and keep a close eye on it. I can't say I agree with Jim about the Dow going to 10200 or the S&P going to 1200. Any normal consolidation would be justified but 700 points seems a bit much to me. I try to only trade what I see and not what I think.

[DSteckler]

I value your input Jim, thanks! Always good to hear both sides of the boat

But I have to disagree as far as potential for 15%. The technicals are clearly bullish bias. Today anyway

Besides that chart count I posted earlier in the thread it's got a nice cup n handle back there, bullish island reversal in January, impulsive behavior, very bullish 'booming' weekly and daily regression channel action, nice volume, money flow is gorgeous....what's not to like. Perhaps those recent gap up on volume that could be better to argue for breakaway? But shoo, that ain't much bearish ammo. Now, if the 'c' fails, there's the bearish crack. And that's where my line is for it. Uner 19.70 'c' and I switch to neutral. Stop to even and let her run with green hope ya know.

Best to ya.

The action is bullish as long as it remains above the 20-day EMA. A close below, especially two closes below, and it switches to short-term bearish.

Group Strength Rank is as high as it gets - 99. It's been there for the last 3 weeks. That's using a percent change RS. But use a fast RS calculation, which places greater weight on the action in the past 6 weeks:

(Current weeks close - 6 weeks ago close) / 6 weeks ago close * 100 * 40%

+

(7 weeks ago close - 13 weeks ago close) / 13 weeks ago close * 100 * 30%

+

(14 weeks ago close - 26 weeks ago close) / 26 weeks ago close *100 * 30%

And the Group RS has been slowly dropping: 97 two weeks ago, 96 last week, and 95 this week.

[gerihearne]

First Steel, Now Snow?

This is off the Illinois wires, could present new opportunities for us:


BC-SnowfallFutures 02-09 0487
BC-Snowfall Futures,0500
Snowstorm coming? At the Chicago Merc, you can bet on it
Eds: Moving on general news and financial services.
By DAVE CARPENTER
AP Business Writer
CHICAGO (AP) -- First came temperature futures, then frost-day
futures. Now -- futures involving how much snow falls at Logan
Airport in Boston or New York's Central Park.
In the latest evidence that almost anything goes in the
marketplace, meteorologically speaking, the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange said Thursday it will begin trading snowfall futures and
options contracts later this month.
The world's largest derivatives exchange said the new product,
which will trade electronically starting Feb. 26, should help
cities manage risk associated with snow accumulation. Insurance
companies, retailers and other businesses with a lot riding on the
weather also can use the futures to hedge their risk.
"The impact of weather can influence regional and local
markets, playing a critical role in the overall economy," said
Rick Redding, the exchange's managing director of products and
services. "CME weather futures provide the safety and soundness
investors are seeking to manage their weather-related risk."
Here's how it will work.
Snowfall futures and options are geared to a snowfall index
focusing initially on Boston and New York. The index will change
based on official daily snowfall totals.
Investors can buy and sell contracts trading on a monthly basis
from October through April. A trader makes money on a contract when
the index rises after it is purchased and loses money when it
falls.
It all may make little financial sense to a small retail
investor, but the Merc is counting on it succeeding with large
companies just as temperature-index or weather futures have since
they were introduced in 1999. More than 889,000 weather contracts
were traded last year and the pace is picking up in 2006, with
108,000 traded last month, the exchange said.
Last fall, it began trading futures contracts based on the
number of frost days in Amsterdam after a major construction
project in the Dutch capital was delayed several times due to a
persistent frost, resulting in heavy financial losses.
"We're seeing more and more hedge funds and banks trading the
weather contracts," said Brian O'Hearne, managing director of the
environment and commodities markets for Swiss Reinsurance Co. and
president of the Weather Risk Management Association.
"From the standpoint of municipalities or companies that are
concerned with excessive snowfall and whether they will have
shipment of goods, there's now the opportunity to hedge your
removal costs or transportation delays or other weather-related
exposure," he said. "CME's had a very good idea on the weather."
------
On the Net:

https://www.cme.com

(Copyright 2006 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
APTV 02-09-06 1847CST
________
Cooking Forum

[skiracer]

Dave,
Could you call those numbers bad or indicative or predictive of it failing?

[DSteckler]

Ski, the numbers show how strong it's been - RS rank measures the past but doesn't predict the future. Drill down into the group and you find that GGB has been outperformed (on a RS basis) by a number of steel stocks, such as IIIN and AKS.

A positive to this is that GGB isn't the king of the hill so everyone won't be looking to bail at the first sniff of weakness. A negative is that within the group, GGB is a laggard with a RS rank of 66 (but remember, that's comparing it only to steel prducers. Against all stocks its RS rank = 94).

So...odds are when money starts flowing away from the group, GGB will take a hit. But as long as money doesn't flow out of the group and there's no negative news on the company, GGB should do fine.

[Olegeezer]

So, Mr. Steckler, maybe it'll rain maybe it won't, but what's your gut can ggb cover Mr.M's exuberance ?

[skiracer]

I bought 1000 shares at $20.10 and another 1000 at $19.80. Sold it all this morning at $20.65. Just didn't like the way it was looking after 10 am this morning. Thought it was going to go off at first but no strength after the small spike up after the open. I would have liked to see it hold the $20.75/20.80 range. I'll be keeping an eye on it for another entry but it's flirting with the 20 ma and the 20 ema an has been for awhile. If it breaks those it could fall to somewhere between those two averages and the 50 ma around $18. I'm not saying it is going to do that but I didn't like this mornings action and took the short term gains while I had them. I let ELN go this week an ended up giving back 1.45. I wasn't about to do it twice this week.