Stocks for the Long Term

[BlueWolf]

New Position: FSLY

I re-opened a position in FSLY today following a Piper Jaffray upgrade. It wasn’t on my LT watch list, but I had previously held FSLY when I first opened this round of LT stocks. I sold it in October at a pretty healthy loss, but I have kept an eye on it because I like their product and their growth story and figured I might be able to recoup at some point in the future. They had a very good quarter in November and should be reporting again in February, so I wanted to be onboard beforehand in the event there is an upside surprise as there was last quarter. This one is a big gamble, but I am willing to take on a few long shots from time to time. I also added WORK back to my LT watchlist. I had some serious concerns about them because of Microsoft’s incursion into their space, but they seem to be weathering the storm pretty well and revenue looks good. I might take a shot in the future.

Current LT positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CGNX, DDOG, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB, FICO, FSLY, GH, HUBS, INSP, ISRG, LVGO, LYV, MA, MDB, MELI, MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, ZEN, ZM, ZS

Current LT Candidates:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, BRK/B, CRM, CRSP, GOOG, KNSL, LITE, LOB, MASI, MSFT, NEE, NOW, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, SNPS, SPLK, WD, WDAY, WORK

1. Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
2. Bold - New Stock

[Louetta]

Good day for your stuff.

[BlueWolf]

Here’s a raw summary of how my round 2 positions have done. I didn’t beat the S&P, largely because I took a bit of a beating initially. It was a good thing I sold off the five positions I did when I did because they are all significantly down even more since I sold them although I did buy back into FSLY. All in all, I’m happy with my returns for 2019, which included 39.53% on round 1. My returns from day trading also exceeded 20% on the capital I committed to that. I don’t expect to duplicate those kind of numbers this year, especially if we head into a recession. If we do head into a recession, I’ll probably day & swing trade a lot more. As I have said, it’s very difficult to make good money on equities in a bear market largely because your returns on short trades are capped. What a bear market does give you, however, is the opportunity to get great entries on good long term stocks going into the next bull market. Here is the round 2 LT position performance summary:

Stock	Date	Purchase Price	Date Closed	Current or Closing Price	Position Size	Effective % Gain/Loss
		Closed	Positions
ANET	09/06/2019	$235.10	11/04/2019	$190.56	1	-18.95%
CRWD	09/17/2019	$70.33	10/30/2019	$50.30	0.5	-14.24%
FSLY	09/11/2019	$32.74	10/21/2019	$22.71	0.5	-15.32%
IIPR	09/11/2019	$88.85	10/15/2019	$79.53	0.5	-5.24%
RVLV	09/11/2019	$25.08	10/22/2019	$21.50	0.5	-7.14%
		Open	Positions
AAPL	09/09/2019	$214.69		$299.80	1	39.64%
AAXN	09/06/2019	$62.11		$68.75	1	10.69%
ABMD	09/06/2019	$191.29		$179.04	1	-6.40%
AMZN	09/06/2019	$1,833.65		$1,902.88	1	3.78%
APPN	10/25/2019	$43.84		$38.89	1	-11.29%
AYX	09/12/2019	$116.76		$108.69	2	-13.82%
BIDU	09/10/2019	$107.73		$135.94	1	26.19%
CGNX	10/31/2019	$51.55		$55.24	0.5	3.58%
DDOG	11/25/2019	$43.37		$39.90	1	-8.00%
DOCU	09/25/2019	$62.20		$75.39	0.5	10.60%
EDIT	09/06/2019	$25.07		$29.73	1	18.59%
EEFT	10/04/2019	$148.69		$158.36	0.5	3.25%
EPAM	10/03/2019	$179.00		$214.20	1	39.33%
ESTC	11/05/2019	$75.19		$67.81	1	-9.82%
ETSY	11/27/2019	$44.41		$44.83	1	0.95%
FB	09/19/2019	$190.10		$212.60	0.5	5.92%
FICO	09/17/2019	$316.60		$384.00	0.5	10.64%
FSLY (2nd)	01/06/2020	$21.76		$21.86	1	0.46%
GH	09/12/2019	$77.34		$79.12	1	2.30%
HUBS	01/02/2020	$162.10		$167.00	0.5	1.51%
INSP	10/24/2019	$57.35		$75.48	1	31.61%
ISRG	09/11/2019	$518.00		$595.76	1	15.01%
LVGO	12/16/2019	$26.85		$25.04	0.5	-3.37%
LYV	09/06/2019	$71.43		$71.74	1	0.43%
MA	09/25/2019	$272.22		$301.23	0.5	5.33%
MDB	09/10/2019	$130.63		$140.50	2	15.11%
MELI	09/11/2019	$568.00		$606.55	2	13.57%
MTCH	09/12/2019	$76.60		$84.32	1	10.08%
NTNX	10/25/2019	$28.07		$33.14	1	18.06%
NVCR	09/11/2019	$79.07		$76.11	1	-3.74%
NVDA	09/06/2019	$177.93		$237.06	1	33.23%
OKTA	09/10/2019	$108.22		$123.43	1	14.05%
OLLI	10/28/2019	$65.58		$61.51	1	-6.21%
PANW	09/06/2019	$216.28		$240.26	1	11.09%
ROKU	09/11/2019	$146.64		$143.37	1	-2.23%
SFIX	09/10/2019	$20.48		$24.76	0.5	10.45%
SHOP	09/11/2019	$342.47		$413.33	1	20.69%
SMAR	10/24/2019	$38.46		$45.81	1	19.11%
TDOC	09/06/2019	$62.80		$86.94	2	76.88%
TEAM	09/12/2019	$125.46		$127.69	2	3.55%
TREX	09/06/2019	$87.57		$90.83	2	7.45%
TTD	09/12/2019	$218.09		$277.91	2	54.86%
TTWO	09/06/2019	$131.97		$124.69	1	-5.52%
TWLO	10/28/2019	$106.92		$107.46	1	0.51%
VEEV	09/11/2019	$145.44		$144.20	2	-1.71%
WIX	10/03/2019	$119.78		$131.63	0.5	4.95%
ZEN	09/11/2019	$77.35		$80.93	2	9.26%
ZM	10/30/2019	$69.76		$70.32	1	0.80%
ZS	09/18/2019	$52.04		$48.70	0.5	-3.21%
Closed Position Total						-12.18%
Open Positions Total						9.76%
Grand Total						7.73%
S&P Since 9/6/2019						8.90%

Note: I modified the chart to account for 1/2 vs full vs double positions. This more accurately reflects real world performance and indicates that I wasn’t as far off as I thought in terms of matching the S&P.

[BlueWolf]

I’m adding a few more stocks to my watchlist, including the re-addition of RVLV, a stock in which I had previously held a position. I’m also considering adding a 1/2 position in DOCU. I really like this company, but I’m getting pretty close to fully invested, so I’m being a little more cautious. I could always sell all or some of a poorly performing position and roll it into DOCU. We’ll see.

Current LT positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CGNX, DDOG, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB, FICO, FSLY, GH, HUBS, INSP, ISRG, LVGO, LYV, MA, MDB, MELI, MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, ZEN, ZM, ZS

Current LT Candidates:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BRK/B, CRM, CRSP, GOOG, KNSL, LITE, LOB, MASI, MNST, MSFT, NEE, NOW, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SNPS, SPLK, WD, WDAY, WORK

1. Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
2. Bold - New Stock

[BlueWolf]

I closed 1/2 my OLLI position today. I didn’t like the failed attempt at a rally in the stock since the early December gap up. I still think there’s a lot of potential here, but I’m being a little cautious, and I wanted to free up a little cash.

Current LT positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU, CGNX(.5), DDOG, DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI(.5), PANW, ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM, ZS(.5)

Current LT Candidates:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BRK/B, CRM, CRSP, GOOG, KNSL, LITE, LOB, MASI, MNST, MSFT, NEE, NOW, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SNPS, SPLK, WD, WDAY, WORK

1. Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
2. Bold = New Stock
3. (.5)= 1/2 Position
4. (2) = Double Position

[Louetta]

Thanks for the update.

[Louetta]

'Nuther very good day for your stuff.

Also, people may have seen an ad called "Financial Melt-Up Major News Isn't Talking About" with a picture of some chick in a pink blouse and dark jacket. It's one of these long-winded presentations designed to get subscriptions to some service. Anyway the featured guaranteed 10X stock given at the very end is TDOC.

[BlueWolf]

'Nuther very good day for your stuff.

Also, people may have seen an ad called "Financial Melt-Up Major News Isn't Talking About" with a picture of some chick in a pink blouse and dark jacket. It's one of these long-winded presentations designed to get subscriptions to some service. Anyway the featured guaranteed 10X stock given at the very end is TDOC.

TDOC is one of my favorites. The upside potential is phenomenal, which is why I have a double position.

[BlueWolf]

I did a little re-allocation today. I reduced ABMD to 1/2 position, and added a full position to ZM to bring it up to a double position. I still think ABMD has excellent long term potential, but with their recent earnings hit and guidance downgrade, I think it might be a while before they restart their momentum. In deciding where to reallocate/add funds, it came down to ZM and DOCU, the latter of which I currently hold only a 1/2 position. I liked ZM’s upside a little more, but I’m still looking at adding to DOCU.

Current LT positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU, CGNX(.5), DDOG, DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI(.5), PANW, ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Candidates:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BRK/B, CRM, CRSP, GOOG, KNSL, LITE, LOB, MASI, MNST, MSFT, NEE, NOW, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SNPS, SPLK, WD, WDAY, WORK

1. Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
2. Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
3. (.5)= 1/2 Position
4. (2) = Double Position

[billyjoe]

My current list of Stocks for the Long Term also is a list of those I've profited the most from. Some don't stand out as great stocks. Maybe it was dumb luck that I bought them at the right time and held. Some I've owned for over 10 years, most are dividend payers and those reinvested dividends eventually take on a life of their own. In alphabetical order: ABR, AMZN, AWF, CE, CIVB, DSL, HQL, LADR, MA, OHI, PMT, UNH

----------------------billy

[BlueWolf]

I haven’t made any changes to my open positions, and I doubt I will add to my holdings any time soon. I am, however, thinking about re-allocating some funds, i.e. closing or reducing some positions and putting the money into different stocks. As a result, I did some scans and updated my watch list quite a bit. I have dropped a few stocks and added several new ones including a few recent IPOs. Some of these are pretty high risk investments, but I am not averse to holding a few more high risk positions that have home run potential. Feel free to ask me why I am interested in any of these new watch list stocks.

Current LT Positions (Unchanged):
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU, CGNX(.5), DDOG,DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI(.5), PANW, ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, FRPT,FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SNPS, SPLK, SWAV, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[Louetta]

MDLA is kind of interesting. Though they just IPOed the company is almost 20 years old and has kind of an impressive customer list including airlines and hotel chains.

FRPT is also interesting. People always spend money on their pets. Had quite a run-up but they are increasing revenues at a 30% annual rate and are coming close to making money. Their ads promise dogs and cats veggies, greens and fruits with no preservatives or artificial ingredients.

[BlueWolf]

MDLA is kind of interesting. Though they just IPOed the company is almost 20 years old and has kind of an impressive customer list including airlines and hotel chains.

FRPT is also interesting. People always spend money on their pets. Had quite a run-up but they are increasing revenues at a 30% annual rate and are coming close to making money. Their ads promise dogs and cats veggies, greens and fruits with no preservatives or artificial ingredients.

MDLA is indeed an interesting story. In the last two years, they have grown revenue by almost 45% with their cloud platform, but what caught my eye is the product itself. I’m not aware of any data mining or analytic product doing what their Athena platform does: aggregating raw data from numerous sources and performing AI-based analytics in order to help companies improve the customer experience. I think they’re really on to something, and I can easily see their growth accelerating because they initially had a narrow focus on the hospitality industry and are now targeting a much broader base of industries that includes media, insurance, banking, retail, and technology. Basically any industry that has a customer facing segment can benefit by using the Athena product. Crap, I sound like a salesman for their company, but I am a little excited about it. Since this is a very recent IPO, and since public financial records have only been available for FY 2018 and forward, I consider this a very high risk investment, but I think MDLA could be a company that has tapped into a motherlode.

I think FRPT is a much lower risk investment. I wish I had picked up some in 2019. They have been on a phenomenal growth trend over the last five years, increasing revenue from $87 million in FY 2014 to $193M in 2018, a 122% increase. They’re not making money yet, which is a little worrisome, but they are still in the early stages of growing their business and cash burn dropped significantly in FY 2015 and has stayed low since. Again, as a dog lover myself, this company has a product that I love. What’s exciting is the fact that they have only penetrated 3% of pet homes, i.e. their upside potential is enormous, especially since they have branched out from just selling out of store refrigerators and now offer home delivery through services such as Prime Now. If you want to see something amazing, bring up their monthly chart and check out the price action since 2016. Ah, to think that you could have bought this $65 stock for under $6 in 2016. Even at $65, I think there is still a lot of growth potential here. I’ve been watching it for a pullback, which hasn’t happened yet, but it is currently basing at a high now which portends more upside in the near future.

[BlueWolf]

I did a small reallocation today and shuffled my watch list again. I sold a half position in BIDU and used the money to open up a half position in RDFN, which I recently added to my watchlist. I looked hard at several other stocks including ADBE, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EXPI, MDLA, PING, but for one reason or another, I eliminated them and settled on RDFN. There are still a lot of stocks on my watch list that I would love to own, but the current chart patterns just don’t look like they will provide a good entry. I sold BIDU because it looks to me like growth is slowing, but I kept a half position because there is still potential there, particularly if the Chinese economy rebounds.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), DDOG,DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI(.5), PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FRPT,FVRR, HCAT,HQY,KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SWAV, TSLA, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[Louetta]

SPCE is interesting. Not at all sure how to value something like that.