Stocks for the Long Term

[BlueWolf]

I’m Flat. I sold everything today!

BlueWolf, at this time US futures are up across the board about 2/3rds of 1% which, of course, could change by tomorrow or the day after. Nevertheless, at one point we talked a little about hedging rather than selling, e.g. shorting or buying puts on individual stocks or maybe on QQQ. What are your thoughts on this kind of an approach in this circumstance?

Hi Louetta,

I know that buying index puts is a popular technique that a lot of funds use to hedge their long portfolios, but I’ve never been a big fan of the technique. I don’t like eroding profits with the put premiums and I don’t find the puts generate enough income to offset a hard correction if I try to trade rather than exercise them. That’s just me. It’s a viable strategy that is used by many traders. I’m a chart guy, so I trade in and out.

Speaking of which, as of today ... I AM FLAT! As soon a I saw the indices reversing this morning, I sold everything. I had thought about doing some selective selling, but I don’t like what I was seeing in the indices. Once again there is a divergence in the three indices. The Dow, in particular, has turned nasty and has rapidly reached bearish Fibonacci retrace levels. The NASDAQ is currently showing a huge bearish engulfing bar. There’s a foul wind afoot. I had said on previous occasions that I didn’t see any reason why we should be headed into a recession any time soon. I was basing that largely on economic indicators. What I failed to consider, however, is that nastiest of recessions are usually triggered by some world event, i.e. 9/11, the banking collapse, etc. Right now, we are in the midst of such a world event as the Corona/Virus is spreading and economies are starting to be affected. So I made a command decision here, to sit it out while I wait to see how bad this gets. If things turn bullish again, I’ll buy back in. I still like almost all of the companies I was holding. For now, however, I don’t want to be caught in the middle of bearish cascade.

[Louetta]

Interesting day. Almost all of my preferreds are down. One might think that with treasuries at new lows people might seek out preferreds to get a little more yield. Also Russell 2000 down the most of the averages. To the extent that small caps operate in the US, as opposed to big internationals, one might think doings overseas might hurt them less.

Some folks are recommending KR and WMT whereas people still have to eat. They say 1/2 of Walmart's business is groceries. Reminds me time to put a roaster in the oven.

[BlueWolf]

Round 2 Investment Performance (Part 1)

I’ve compiled figures on my round 2 investments. I did manage to beat the S&P, although I would have liked to have hit 15% total return. Still, I’m happy with a 12.75% return over a 5 1/2 month total holding period. Now that I am out of the market, I will start building my round 3 watchlist, and I will start adding back positions when I feel the market is showing signs of bullishness again.

Here are the performance figures, part 1 (Note: I will have to post this in two separate messages because of text limits):

Stock	Date	Purchase Price	Date Closed	Current or Closing Price	Position Size	Effective Gain/Loss
		Closed	Positions
AAPL	09/09/2019	$214.69	02/25/2020	$298.50	1	39.04%
AAXN	09/06/2019	$62.11	02/25/2020	$82.48	1	32.80%
ABMD	09/06/2019	$191.29	01/15/2020	$172.87	0.5	-4.81%
ABMD	09/06/2019	$191.29	02/25/2020	$162.41	0.5	-7.55%
AMZN	09/06/2019	$1,833.65	02/25/2020	$2,003.37	1	9.26%
ANET	09/06/2019	$235.10	11/04/2019	$190.56	1	-18.95%
ANET	02/14/2020	$218.40	02/25/2020	$210.12	1	-3.79%
APPN	10/25/2019	$43.84	02/25/2020	$45.90	1	4.70%
AYX	09/12/2019	$116.76	02/25/2020	$132.44	2	26.86%
BIDU	09/10/2019	$107.53	02/03/2020	$131.98	0.5	11.37%
BIDU	09/10/2019	$107.73	02/25/2020	$126.07	0.5	8.51%
CGNX	10/31/2019	$51.55	02/25/2020	$48.21	0.5	-3.24%
CRSP	02/13/2020	$58.16	02/25/2020	$50.75	0.5	-6.37%
CRWD	09/17/2019	$70.33	10/30/2019	$50.30	0.5	-14.24%
DDOG	11/25/2019	$43.37	02/25/2020	$43.74	1	0.85%
DOCU	09/25/2019	$62.20	02/25/2020	$86.12	0.5	19.23%
EDIT	09/06/2019	$25.07	02/25/2020	$23.25	1	-7.26%
EEFT	10/04/2019	$148.69	02/19/2020	$144.35	0.5	-1.46%
EPAM	10/03/2019	$179.00	02/25/2020	$222.11	1	24.08%
ESTC	11/05/2019	$75.19	02/13/2020	$72.12	1	-4.08%
ETSY	11/27/2019	$44.41	02/25/2020	$50.78	1	14.34%
FB	09/19/2019	$190.10	02/25/2020	$201.01	0.5	2.87%
FICO	09/17/2019	$316.60	02/25/2020	$402.79	0.5	13.61%
FSLY	09/11/2019	$32.74	10/21/2019	$22.71	0.5	-15.32%
FSLY	01/06/2020	$21.76	02/25/2020	$19.75	1	-9.24%
GH	09/12/2019	$77.34	02/25/2020	$77.23	1	-0.14%
HUBS	01/02/2020	$162.10	02/25/2020	$178.46	0.5	5.05%
IIPR	09/11/2019	$88.85	10/15/2019	$79.53	0.5	-5.24%
INSP	10/24/2019	$57.35	02/25/2020	$79.74	1	39.04%
ISRG	09/11/2019	$518.00	02/25/2020	$577.99	1	11.58%
LVGO	12/16/2019	$26.85	02/25/2020	$26.83	0.5	-0.04%
LYV	09/06/2019	$71.43	02/25/2020	$67.96	1	-4.86%

[BlueWolf]

Round 2 Investments (Part 2)

Here are the performance figures, part 2:

Stock	Date	Purchase Price	Date Closed	Current or Closing Price	Position Size	Effective Gain/Loss
		Closed	Positions
MA	09/25/2019	$272.22	02/25/2020	$315.97	0.5	8.04%
MDB	09/10/2019	$130.63	02/25/2020	$152.85	2	34.02%
MELI	09/11/2019	$568.00	02/25/2020	$681.84	2	40.08%
MTCH	09/12/2019	$76.60	02/25/2020	$69.12	1	-9.77%
NTNX	10/25/2019	$28.07	02/25/2020	$35.93	1	28.00%
NVCR	09/11/2019	$79.07	02/25/2020	$80.56	1	1.88%
NVDA	09/06/2019	$177.93	02/25/2020	$267.15	1	50.14%
NVTA	02/10/2020	$23.16	02/25/2020	$21.28	0.5	-4.06%
OKTA	09/10/2019	$108.22	02/25/2020	$125.33	1	15.81%
OLLI	10/28/2019	$65.58	01/10/2020	$58.63	0.5	-5.30%
OLLI	10/28/2019	$65.58	02/10/2020	$48.76	0.5	-12.82%
PANW	09/06/2019	$216.28	02/25/2020	$199.34	1	-7.83%
PING	02/19/2020	$26.44	02/25/2020	$24.69	0.5	-3.31%
RDFN	02/03/2020	$24.69	02/25/2020	$31.18	0.5	13.14%
ROKU	09/11/2019	$146.64	02/25/2020	$115.46	1	-21.26%
RVLV	09/11/2019	$25.08	10/22/2019	$21.50	0.5	-7.14%
SFIX	09/10/2019	$20.48	02/25/2020	$26.89	0.5	15.65%
SHOP	09/11/2019	$342.47	02/25/2020	$487.53	1	42.36%
SMAR	10/24/2019	$38.46	02/25/2020	$45.28	1	17.73%
TDOC	09/06/2019	$62.80	02/25/2020	$113.21	2	160.54%
TEAM	09/12/2019	$125.46	02/25/2020	$144.66	2	30.61%
TREX	09/06/2019	$87.57	02/25/2020	$106.04	2	42.18%
TTD	09/12/2019	$218.09	02/25/2020	$279.55	2	56.36%
TTWO	09/06/2019	$131.97	02/25/2020	$113.67	1	-13.87%
TWLO	10/28/2019	$106.92	02/25/2020	$114.64	1	7.22%
VEEV	09/11/2019	$145.44	02/25/2020	$151.43	2	8.24%
WIX	10/03/2019	$119.78	02/25/2020	$134.68	0.5	6.22%
WORK	02/13/2020	$26.59	02/25/2020	$27.49	0.5	1.69%
ZEN	09/11/2019	$77.35	02/25/2020	$83.42	2	15.69%
ZM	10/30/2019	$69.76	02/25/2020	$108.12	1	54.99%
ZM	01/15/2020	$74.85	02/25/2020	$108.12	1	44.45%
ZS	09/18/2019	$52.04	02/25/2020	$50.66	0.5	-1.33%
Closed Positions	Total Gain/Loss	764.97%	Num Positions	60	Avg Gain/Loss	12.75%
S&P	09/06/2019	$2,888.64	Closing	$3,128.21	S&P Gain/Loss	8.29%

[BlueWolf]

New Long Term (LT) Watchlist

Since I’m totally in cash, I rebuilt my long term watch list to prepare for rebuilding my portfolio when I feel the time is right for buying again. One thing about corrections like this is that when they are done, they make for excellent buying opportunities. Billyjoe posted an excellent quote by Warren Buffet about this. I am currently doing more deep dive research so my watchlist will be evolving quite a bit over the next few weeks, but I will post updates. On another note, I will dispense with underling stocks for which I have writeups. This is because I simply don’t have time to do any more writeups, at least right now, although I will be glad to share my thoughts on any stocks on my list that you ask about. Finally, all of the stocks on watchlist are technically new, so I didn’t bother bolding them this time around. I will bold additions from here on out.

So here are my current LT lists:

Current Positions:
**None**

Current Watchlist:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, ADBE, AMT, AMZN, ANET, APPF, APPN, ATVI, AYX, BIDU, BILI, BRK/B, BZUN, CGNX, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, CRWD, DDOG, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, EVBG, EXPI, FB, FICO, FLGT, FRPT, FSLY, FVRR, GH, HCAT, HQY, HUBS, IIPR, INSP, ISRG, KNSL, LITE, LVGO, LYV, MA, MDB, MDLA, MELI, MNST, MSFT, MTCH, NEE, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RDFN, RGEN, ROKU, RVLV, SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, SPCE, SPLK, SWAV, TDOC, TEAM, TLRA, TREX, TSLA, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, WORK, ZEN, ZM, ZS

Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[Louetta]

Interesting list. ADBE MSFT PYPL good new names. SPCE now cut in half from the high.

[BlueWolf]

I already started reloading a few stocks. In truth, I probably shouldn’t have sold these particular stocks in the first place since they showed strength in the face of market weakness. I also added two new stocks to my watchlist, SQ and DAVA. SQ is an oldie but goodie that I became a little discouraged with in Round 1, but I feel it’s time to take another look.

So, we are off to the races for Round 3:

Current LT Positions:
DDOG, DOCU, ETSY, INSP, ZM

Current LT Watchlist:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, ADBE, AMT, AMZN, ANET, APPF, APPN, ATVI, AYX, BIDU, BILI, BRK/B, BZUN, CGNX, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, CRWD, DAVA, EDIT, EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, EVBG, EXPI, FB, FICO, FLGT, FRPT, FSLY, FVRR, GH, HCAT, HQY, HUBS, IIPR, ISRG, KNSL, LITE, LVGO, LYV, MA, MDB, MDLA, MELI, MNST, MSFT, MTCH, NEE, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RDFN, RGEN, ROKU, RVLV, SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, SPCE, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TDOC, TEAM, TLRA, TREX, TSLA, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, WORK, ZEN, ZS

Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[Louetta]

Bought a smidge of AAPL, MSFT, ADBE, AMZN, MA. All seem like nice long term holdings, all down at least 10%.

Also bought some SPCE. Chairman Chamath Palihapitiya talked about it yesterday on CNBC and convinced me it might work. He was an early TSLA investor. Early in the day SPCE was down over 50% from it's all time high though I paid more than the 50%.

Also put some money into mutual funds BFOCX, BGSAX and LDVAX, my best perfomers recently and all with good records for multiple years. Have to pay a 2% fee if sold in less than 90 days but have enough old money in these so I can sell those shares for free and balance out if this turns into a fiasco.

Reasons for buying today were the money coming into stocks and out of bonds at mid day.

[BlueWolf]

Bought a smidge of AAPL, MSFT, ADBE, AMZN, MA. All seem like nice long term holdings, all down at least 10%.

Also bought some SPCE. Chairman Chamath Palihapitiya talked about it yesterday on CNBC and convinced me it might work. He was an early TSLA investor. Early in the day SPCE was down over 50% from it's all time high though I paid more than the 50%.

Also put some money into mutual funds BFOCX, BGSAX and LDVAX, my best perfomers recently and all with good records for multiple years. Have to pay a 2% fee if sold in less than 90 days but have enough old money in these so I can sell those shares for free and balance out if this turns into a fiasco.

Reasons for buying today were the money coming into stocks and out of bonds at mid day.

Good choices, Louetta. SPCE intrigues me, but I have no clue as to value it or determine is growth. Still, something in me wants to dabble in that one. Good luck with it.

[Louetta]

Good choices, Louetta. SPCE intrigues me, but I have no clue as to value it or determine is growth. Still, something in me wants to dabble in that one. Good luck with it.

We talked about that briefly before. Yesterday Palihapitiya talked about the expected revenues, though not the costs. That and the fact it was down more than 50% convinced me to give it a try, plus the fact he was right about TSLA. I did look at the (SPCE) 10Qs and there are all sorts of arrangements about warrants and stuff which made me think maybe it was all carefully arranged to make a few people a lot of money. We'll see.

[BlueWolf]

If you want to see another interesting recent IPO, take a look at SDGR. Citron Research is really in love with this stock as a long. They apparently sell physics-based software to the pharma market that can be used to research novel molecules for use in drug development. That makes them unique because they’re not tied to any single drug or set of drugs which means they get broad exposure across the entire pharma industry. The one thing that gives me pause is their growth story, which has certainly been good, but not spectacular. Think I’ll add it to my watch list and keep an eye on it at the very least.

[Louetta]

Thought the current situation might provide an entry to BRK-B. Down 9.5% recently while SPY is down 12.1%. Buffett said in his Monday CNBC interview that they should outperform in a bear market so there's a tad of a safety net.

[BlueWolf]

Thought the current situation might provide an entry to BRK-B. Down 9.5% recently while SPY is down 12.1%. Buffett said in his Monday CNBC interview that they should outperform in a bear market so there's a tad of a safety net.

BRK-B is one that I’ve had my eye on for a while for an entry, and it’s certainly looking more attractive at current levels. If he means that BRK-B will lose less money than the indices, however, I’m not in for that. That sounds like something my Schwab broker would sell me. “As you can see, this fund only lost 23% in value while the S&P dropped 34%.” 😉 I like to be net positive at all times, if at all possible, but it’s very difficult in a long term bear market. In a short term bear market, it pays to just wait for the bottom and then buy on the way back up. You get great entries that way, like I did in December, 2018 after that short term bear market. AMT, BRK-B and MSFT are three stocks in particular, I’d love to get good entries into.

[BlueWolf]

Feb 28, 2020 Portfolio & Watchlist

I did quite a bit of trading this morning, creeping my way back into the market. I will be doing more trading in the days to come provided the market doesn’t make a another leg down, in which case I will be fastening my seatbelt since I have a healthy stake again.

Louetta, I joined you with a half position in SPCE. It’s an intriguing and I thought I’d take a half position to get some skin in the game.

Here are my latest positions and newest watchlist:

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, ANET, AYX, CGNX(.5), DDOG, DOCU, EDIT, ETSY, FICO(.5), INSP, LYV, MDB, MSFT, NVDA, SDGR(.5), SHOP, SPCE(.5), TTD, ZM, ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
AAXN, ABMD, ADBE, AMT, AMZN, APPF, APPN, ATVI, BIDU, BILI, BRK/B, BZUN, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, CRWD, DAVA, EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, EVBG, EXPI, FB, FLGT, FRPT, FSLY, FVRR, GH, HCAT, HQY, HUBS, IIPR, ISRG, KNSL, LITE, LVGO, MA, MDLA, MELI, MNST, MTCH, NEE, NTNX, NVCR, NVTA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RDFN, RGEN, ROKU, RVLV, SFIX, SMAR, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TDOC, TEAM, TLRA, TREX, TSLA, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, WORK, ZEN

Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

March 2, 2020 Portfolio & Watchlist

I added quite a few positions today, which put me about 2/3 in. I’ll be slowing down now as I (anxiously) await the next moves by the market. A few of the stocks I own. Have earnings coming up and I wanted to be in them beforehand. We’ll see how it pans out.

Here are my latest positions and newest watchlist:

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, AMT, ANET, APPN, AYX, CGNX(.5), CRM(.5), CRWD(.5), DDOG, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT(.5), ETSY, FICO(.5), FLGT(.5), IIPR(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB, MELI, MSFT(.5), MTCH, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA, OKTA, PING(.5), RDFN(.5), SDGR(.5), SHOP, SMAR, SPCE(.5), TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO, VEEV, WD(.5), WIX(.5), ZEN, ZM, ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ABMD, ADBE, AMZN, APPF, ATVI, BIDU, BILI, BRK/B, BZUN, CRNC, CRSP, DAVA, EPAM, ESTC, EVBG, EXPI, FB, FRPT, FSLY, FVRR, GH, HCAT, HQY, HUBS, KNSL, LITE, MDLA, MNST, NEE, NTNX, OLLI, PANW, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, ROKU, RVLV, SFIX, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TLRA, TREX, TSLA, TTWO, WORK

Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position