Stocks for the Long Term

[BlueWolf]

Good write-up. Today another method was suggested to me: the Buffett method. You buy good stocks and hold on through thick and thin. I was, of course, much too well brought up to mention Buffett owns large positions in four airlines and a variety of banks. I did buy some more STOR which is a holding of one of Buffett's lieutenants.

Overall, I do believe the Buffett method is truly the best method.

[Louetta]

Overall, I do believe the Buffett method is truly the best method.

I agree completely. STOR has done well till just recently.

Also, bought some MPC. Sneaking up on a seven year low. They are refining, retail, and midstream operations. 6.5% dividend, earnings to cover said dividend (2.32 vs. 3.97), PE of 9. Bought about 1/3 of a position. Expect crude will go lower. Putin's not going to throw in the towel very soon methinks. Down a robust 44% since 2/20/2020.

[enhancebeginner]

Good write-up. Today another method was suggested to me: the Buffett method. You buy good stocks and hold on through thick and thin. I was, of course, much too well brought up to mention Buffett owns large positions in four airlines and a variety of banks. I did buy some more STOR which is a holding of one of Buffett's lieutenants.

Totally agree with this, Buffett was one of the good people who helped and made us learn the nook and cranny of this kind of business.

[BlueWolf]

Officially adding two more options to my list of ideas for combatting a market downturn:

Eight)* The Buffet Way
Basically, he buys stocks for the long term and holds through market turmoil. Of course, you have to be astute at picking stocks that can weather a storm and bounce back. With this method, you should expect to hold a stock for at least 5-10 years or longer, but time has shown that if you invest in good companies you will prosper with this method.

9) Trade index futures
I don’t know how I left this out. I haven’t traded futures in a while, but this is certainly a viable way of being able to short the market, much like trading index ETF puts. One key difference with futures is that they represent an obligation to buy or sell whereas an option is, as it’s name suggests, is a contract to optionally buy or sell the underlying asset. Another key difference is that with futures, unlike options. there is no underlying asset to deliver. For this reason futures contracts always settle in cash when they expire. With options, they either expire worthless, because they’re optional contracts, or you end up settling at expiration by delivery of the underlying asset, i.e. the underlying commodity, stock, ETF, etc. You’ll need a separate (from the account you use to trade equities) account to trade futures.

* - for some strange and unknown reason, the editor would not allow me to enter the number eight.

[mrmarket]

take a look at MIC and KMP. They got beaten down because of the overall market and compounded by the energy pummeling. However they are not oil companies..they store oil for oil companies. Right now since oil is cheap and the market has reverted to "contango" they are going to see excellent YOY earnings. They also pay great dividends while you wait.

[mrmarket]

take a look at MIC and KMP. They got beaten down because of the overall market and compounded by the energy pummeling. However they are not oil companies..they store oil for oil companies. Right now since oil is cheap and the market has reverted to "contango" they are going to see excellent YOY earnings. They also pay great dividends while you wait.

Sorry...that's KMI (we always call it KMP in our industry emails for Kinder Morgan Partners).

[BlueWolf]

Sorry...that's KMI (we always call it KMP in our industry emails for Kinder Morgan Partners).

The valuations on both are excellent right now, and I agree that they could be great investments, especially as a hedge as the economy starts to show the effects of the CoronaVirus. Just be careful about opening any positions just yet. I don’t think the panic is over, and I haven’t seen any signs that we have bottomed. I’ve been watching closely for the last several days and I keep seeing the same pattern. Buyers come in and attempt to start a rally, and the sellers then overwhelm them, driving the market down even further. Funds and institutional holders must be selling into every rally trying to squeeze every dollar they can out of their positions. I’d wait until we see a sustainable rally before opening any new positions. I’ve been trying to day trade the rallies myself, and the trades keep failing because the market rolls over. This is some nasty business.

[Louetta]

Good write-up. Today another method was suggested to me: the Buffett method. You buy good stocks and hold on through thick and thin. I was, of course, much too well brought up to mention Buffett owns large positions in four airlines and a variety of banks. I did buy some more STOR which is a holding of one of Buffett's lieutenants.

Well. I did buy STOR (in previous days). Their thing is buying strip mall properties which can't be internetized. Barbershops, laudromats, pool halls. Today it's down 20%.

If you think about it these are a good sampling of what you don't want to buy because they all involve people walking in the door and people aren't walking thru any doors these days.

[riverbabe]

Remember how many times here I have described Black Monday, 1987? I rushed to my husband and said, Honey, the Dow just dropped 500 points. He said, Don't worry, it will come back. It always does. My head is currently buried firmly in the sand.

[BlueWolf]

Took a full position in SFIX today, my first addition in a while. I’m going to treat this like a swing trade with potential to transition into a hold. I like what the company is doing, although they just recently had a disappointing quarter and guided poorly. The thing is, their model is going to be far more resilient during this crisis because they do not operate in the brick and mortar space. I think the shutdowns could benefit them by pushing more customers their way, so I am taking a shot. I also still like their long term prospects and believe in their CEO, who was just recently on Shark Tank.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, AMT, ANET, APPN(2), AYX(2), CGNX(.5), CRM(.5), CRWD(.5), DDOG, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT(.5), ETSY, FICO(.5), FLGT(.5), FRPT(.5), FSLY, IIPR(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB, MDLA(.5), MELI(2), MSFT(.5), MTCH, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA, OKTA, PING(.5), RDFN(.5), RGEN(.5), SDGR(.5), SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, SPCE(.5), TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WD(.5), WIX(.5), WORK, ZEN(2), ZM, ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ABMD, ADBE, AMZN, APPF, ATVI, BFYT, BIDU, BILI, BKNG, BRK/B, BZUN, COUP, CRNC, CRSP, DAVA, EPAM, EQIX, ESTC, EVBG, EXPI, FB, FTCH, FVRR, GH, HCAT, HQY, HUBS, KNSL, LITE, LK, MASI, MNST, NEE, NTNX, OLLI, PANW, PAYC, PYPL, QTWO, ROKU, RVLV, SIVB, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, V

Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

I day traded a large block of TLRA today, and after booking profit, I kept 1/2 position for a LT hold. Still being cautious about adding anything, but day/swing trading into a LT position seems to be a good way to leg back into the market. Still, I am not going to go crazy with my cash as I don’t think we have seen the worst of the Coronavirus crisis yet. Here are my up-to-date holdings and watchlist:

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, AMT, ANET, APPN(2), AYX(2), CGNX(.5), CRM(.5), CRWD(.5), DDOG, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT(.5), ETSY, FICO(.5), FLGT(.5), FRPT(.5), FSLY, IIPR(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB, MDLA(.5), MELI(2), MSFT(.5), MTCH, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA, OKTA, PING(.5), RDFN(.5), RGEN(.5), SDGR(.5), SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, SPCE(.5), TDOC, TEAM, TLRA, TREX, TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WD(.5), WIX(.5), WORK, ZEN(2), ZM, ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ABMD, ADBE, AMZN, APPF, ATVI, BFYT, BIDU, BILI, BKNG, BRK/B, BZUN, COUP, CRNC, CRSP, DAVA, EPAM, EQIX, ESTC, EVBG, EXPI, FB, FTCH, FVRR, GH, HCAT, HQY, HUBS, KNSL, LITE, LK, MASI, MNST, NEE, NTNX, OLLI, PANW, PAYC, PYPL, QTWO, ROKU, RVLV, SIVB, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TSLA, V

Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position
I hope everyone is safe and healthy.

[billyjoe]

Marriot said their revenues are down 90%. This is just an indication of the overall market earnings reports for the next 2 quarters. I don't see any stocks rallying on these reports. Short term I agree there will be swings that can be profitable as long as one is on the right end of the swing. There will be enormous opportunities eventually, but the entry points will be difficult to determine. A gradual easing in might be the way to go.

------------------billy

[BlueWolf]

Marriot said their revenues are down 90%. This is just an indication of the overall market earnings reports for the next 2 quarters. I don't see any stocks rallying on these reports. Short term I agree there will be swings that can be profitable as long as one is on the right end of the swing. There will be enormous opportunities eventually, but the entry points will be difficult to determine. A gradual easing in might be the way to go.
------------------billy

You’re right about earnings. That’s going to be the lasting aftereffect of all this. Even when the virus crisis starts receding, bad earnings will continue to plague the market. Some stocks are doing OK in the midst of all this (ZM, ZS, TDOC, AMZN) because their business models aren’t as dependent on brick-and-mortar stores, but a lot companies are paying a steep price.

[BlueWolf]

I am again day trading a position, this time in CRSP, with the hopes of legging into a LT hold. I am also restructuring my watchlist into two lists, High Interest and Some Interest. I am interested in all of these stocks based on their products/services, business models, and growth stories. I decided to segregate them into two lists, however, to accommodate the fact that my level of interest may change based on charting patterns, hiccups in earnings and other factors.

Here are my current holdings and candidates:

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, AMT, ANET, APPN(2), AYX(2), CGNX(.5), CRM(.5), CRSP(.5), CRWD(.5), DDOG, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT(.5), ETSY, FICO(.5), FLGT(.5), FRPT(.5), FSLY, IIPR(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB, MDLA(.5), MELI(2), MSFT(.5), MTCH, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA, OKTA, PING(.5), RDFN(.5), RGEN(.5), SDGR(.5), SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, SPCE(.5), TDOC, TEAM, TLRA, TREX, TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WD(.5), WIX(.5), WORK, ZEN(2), ZM, ZS(.5)

Current High Interest Watchlist:
ADBE, AMZN, APPF, ATVI, BKNG, BRK/B, CRNC, CRSP, DAVA, EPAM, EQIX, ESTC, EVBG, FB, GH, HQY, HUBS, KNSL, LITE, LK, MASI, MNST, NEE, NTNX, PANW, PAYC, PYPL, QTWO, ROKU, RVLV, SIVB, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, V

Current Some Interest Watchlist:
ABMD, BFYT, BIDU, BILI, BZUN, COUP, EXPI, FTCH, FVRR, GLOB, HCAT, OLLI, TSLA

Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position
I hope everyone is safe and healthy.

[mrmarket]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/business/energy-environment/oil-storage.html

Illustrates how stocks in companies such as MIC and KMI are really going to crush it.