Stocks for the Long Term

[BlueWolf]

SPCE is interesting. Not at all sure how to value something like that.

That’s the problem. I don’t know how to value it either. I’m doing some research on it, and I’m finding that there is a lot of interest in the company right now. What’s fascinating is that they raised $80M in (returnable) deposits before they closed reservations in 2014! People are chomping at the bit for this product. I see that some investors are calling this a “space infrastructure” stock, which is an intriguing way to look at it. I see other people saying this is one of the early stocks in the new “space economy,” and that’s likely to be a very big economy indeed. It certainly has caught my interest, but if I bought this I would have to say it was a purely speculative play, and I think I might have to hang on to it for years before it busted out (if it ever does). In any event, I’m gonna keep it on my watch list while I try to do a deeper dive.

[billyjoe]

I just can't buy TSLA. Lots of buyers are going to get burned on this. I sold when it hit 200 a few years ago.

---------------billy

[BlueWolf]

I just can't buy TSLA. Lots of buyers are going to get burned on this. I sold when it hit 200 a few years ago.

---------------billy

Well, I definitely wouldn’t enter it now, but last week it was obviously a buy. I know that’s one giant spinning top on the daily now, but don’t be surprised if it starts consolidating sideways. I’ll continue to keep an eye on it to see what it does, but it’s far too extended to consider an entry at this point.

[BlueWolf]

Well, I definitely wouldn’t enter it now, but last week it was obviously a buy. I know that’s one giant spinning top on the daily now, but don’t be surprised if it starts consolidating sideways. I’ll continue to keep an eye on it to see what it does, but it’s far too extended to consider an entry at this point.

That’s one awesome looking evening star on the TSLA chart now.

[BlueWolf]

A few additions to my watchlist. Thinking about buying one real soon, maybe even tomorrow. I have my eye on two stocks in particular. When I do add, I will probably do so through re-allocation rather than new capital, but we’ll see.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), DDOG,DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI(.5), PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, NVTA, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

I did another small reallocation today, closing my half position in OLLI and opening a half position in NVTA. OLLI has been a major disappointment after having such potential when I first looked at it. It always been my philosophy to cut losers loose, however, and put the money back into winners so the time had come to cut OLLI loose. NVTA intrigues me. I considered both NVTA and FLGT, who are both in the genetic diagnostic testing space, but NVTA’s revenue story seemed more compelling. NVTA had first caught my eye when Citron wrote a buy opinion on the company back in August, 2019. Recently Motley Fool jumped on the bandwagon, and after digging into the financials and seeing some interesting movement in the chart, I decided to pull the trigger. Here are my updated lists.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), DDOG,DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA(.5), OKTA, PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

Things are starting to look up at the company and the chart is getting interesting so I am adding ANET back to my watchlist. I’m taking a hard look at some of the under-performers in my positions, and I might do a few re-allocations. I am finally beating the S&P, however, so I don’t want to shake things up too much. In fact, I wouldn’t mind adding to a few of my existing positions.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), DDOG, DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA(.5), OKTA, PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, ANET, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

Well, I know I’m being a pain, but I did some more reallocation today. I sold my entire position in one of my under-performers, ESTC, and put the money into two new half positions in CRSP and WORK. I like ETSC’s product very much, and I am heavily invested in the data mining space, but I am starting to see too many competitive pressures on ESTC and in their last earnings they failed to duplicate the success of rivals such as DDOG and SPLK. When a growth stock goes off the rails, it’s usually time to get out.

Speaking of that, I had initially held some WORK, but sold it when I grew concerned over competitive pressure from MSFT. It seems like WORK is holding up well in it’s space, however, and guidance looks encouraging, so I am back on board. As for CRSP, this is one of those home run stocks I have liked for a while. I was just waiting for a good time to get it. I should have pulled the trigger a few days ago, and as a result of waiting, I missed an optimal entry. Still I like this stock and along with EDIT, it now gives me some real skin in the gene editing game. AMT is the other stock I really wanted in on, but I may have waiting too long as it spiked up this week. I don’t like to chase entires. It was a beautiful entry while it was basing. Stupid me. Speaking of a stock that looks like it is basing and ready for another leg up, check out V, a staple in many well rounded portfolios.

I also shook up my watchlist a little once again. I still might do some more reallocation in the days ahead. I‘ll keep posting updates as long as anyone is interested. Once I hear crickets, I will let it go.

Here’s where I stand now.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), CRSP(.5), DDOG, DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA(.5), OKTA, PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), WORK(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, ANET, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BKNG, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, V

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[Louetta]

I read your stuff all the time, look at the stuff and try to make comments. I would make more comments but fear looking like a busy-body. Next to Ernie's write-ups I think your two threads are the best we have. Refreshing to read people posting original content. I maintain a Yahoo portfolio based on the stocks you list in your current positions to help me keep abreast of where money seems to be going and watch for a change which, as you often point out, will someday come.

[BlueWolf]

I opened a full position in ANET this morning with new money, taking the very risky action of buying into a gap down. Apparently there was some mixed analyst action today on the stock, but I’m still a believer in the business and so I took a shot because I wanted in. I’m hoping this will give me a good entry, but only time will tell.

Here’s where I stand now.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, ANET, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), CRSP(.5), DDOG, DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA(.5), OKTA, PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), WORK(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BKNG, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, V

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

I did a small reallocation this morning as I pruned yet another under-performer. I closed my 1/2 position in EEFT and opened a 1/2 position in PING. Ping is a fairly recent IPO (Sept 2019) and small cap, so this is a higher risk position, but I like their product, which is something every company needs, and I like their financials so far. I would like to see a little higher growth rate, but I am hoping they are at that early stage in which their product will catch fire and accelerate their growth. I see some similarities between their story and TWLO, although I admit that TWLO’s story was much stronger at the same stage. I know I’m doing a lot of tweaking lately, but I am just trying to squeeze every ounce I can out of this incredible strength before we head into a correction.

Here’s where I stand now.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, ANET, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), CRSP(.5), DDOG, DOCU(.5), EDIT, EPAM, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA(.5), OKTA, PANW, PING(.5), RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), WORK(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BKNG, BRK/B, BZUN, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EEFT, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, V

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[tiedyed1]

I read your stuff all the time, look at the stuff and try to make comments. I would make more comments but fear looking like a busy-body. Next to Ernie's write-ups I think your two threads are the best we have. Refreshing to read people posting original content. I maintain a Yahoo portfolio based on the stocks you list in your current positions to help me keep abreast of where money seems to be going and watch for a change which, as you often point out, will someday come.

BlueWolf, I strongly share Louetta's sentiment as I too read your posts religiously (and admittedly rarely feel like I have anything worthwhile to chime in on as your posts are indeed outstanding and I have benefited from them).

I feel like I have missed the boat on a few of your larger positions, but do have positions in TTD, VEEV, LVGO, MA and PING.

Your hard work is appreciated by many more than you imagine and I thank you.
Keep On Keepin' On;
-Adam

[BlueWolf]

Thank you, Adam. Good luck with your positions.

[BlueWolf]

Just an update, in case you’re curious, but I’m not closing any positions just yet. If there had been a giant red bar today, I would probably be closing a lot of positions, but the giant gap down is problematic. I don’t like selling into a gap, so for now I’m holding and taking a beating. Fortunately I built up a lot of profit so I can afford to ride it for now. I’ll have to just watch and see where it goes from here or decide what to do.

[Louetta]

BlueWolf, at this time US futures are up across the board about 2/3rds of 1% which, of course, could change by tomorrow or the day after. Nevertheless, at one point we talked a little about hedging rather than selling, e.g. shorting or buying puts on individual stocks or maybe on QQQ. What are your thoughts on this kind of an approach in this circumstance?