Stocks for the Long Term

[BlueWolf]

I will second that.

Thanks, Louetta.

[Louetta]

Dear Bluwolf,

thank you very much for the ideas you have shared with us and also for those where we still are provided with your ideas.

Personally, I normally always read your posts and appreciate your ideas and thinking a lot !

Thank you very much!!!

Best regards,

wifwif

I will second that.

[BlueWolf]

You’re welcome, wifwif. I appreciate your kind words. I will continue to share watchlists and ideas.

[wifwif]

T h a n k y o u !!!

Dear Bluwolf,

thank you very much for the ideas you have shared with us and also for those where we still are provided with your ideas.

Personally, I normally always read your posts and appreciate your ideas and thinking a lot !

Thank you very much!!!

Best regards,

wifwif

[BlueWolf]

Round 4 Final Results

Well, as per my previous post, I am completely flat and ready for a complete reset. I started pulling the trigger yesterday and then early today, I decided to close the rest. It was painful to see so much profit evaporate over the last two days, but I can’t be too unhappy. I still netted a 9.78% return on principal (the total amount available for investment) in just a hair over 3 months. My average gain per position was a decent 14.36%. I’ve had a good year, and I’m look to do more still, but I am wary of the market right now. A major correction is overdue. My individual trades are documented below.

NOTE: This will be my last post of individual trades and positions, i.e. there will be no Round 5 list of trades. I may still occasionally post some trading ideas, but I will no longer post the kinds of detail I was previously posting. I’ll probably keep up with the weekly market sentiment and I will keep up the PotY standings. Good luck and good trading.

Round 4	Start Date	6/1/2020	End Date	9/4/2020	Max Open Positions		65
Stock	Date	Purchase Price	Position Size	Date Closed	Current or Closing Price	% Gain/Loss on Trade	% Gain/Loss on Principal
		Closed Positions
AAPL (4:1 Split)	08/17/2020	$115.06	1	09/04/2020	$122.27	6.27%	0.0964%
ABMD	07/29/2020	$297.26	1	09/04/2020	$291.32	-2.00%	-0.0307%
ANET	07/02/2020	$210.32	1	09/04/2020	$216.25	2.82%	0.0434%
APPN	07/01/2020	$50.95	1	09/04/2020	$59.53	16.84%	0.2591%
AYX	07/21/2020	$162.30	1	08/24/2020	$112.20	-30.87%	-0.4749%
BRK/B	06/03/2020	$189.12	1	06/11/2020	$184.22	-2.59%	-0.0399%
	07/23/2020	$191.81	0.5	09/04/2020	$220.72	15.07%	0.1159%
CGNX	07/09/2020	$61.48	0.5	09/03/2020	$68.67	11.69%	0.0900%
CRSP	08/03/2020	$86.60	1	09/03/2020	$88.92	2.68%	0.0412%
CRWD	07/24/2020	$99.41	1	09/03/2020	$133.34	34.13%	0.5251%
DDOG	07/30/2020	$90.59	1	09/04/2020	$79.18	-12.60%	-0.1938%
DOCU	07/17/2020	$191.30	1	09/03/2020	$244.20	27.65%	0.4254%
EBS	07/30/2020	$93.42	0.5	09/03/2020	$109.98	17.73%	0.1364%
EDIT	07/01/2020	$29.93	1	09/03/2020	$33.86	13.13%	0.2020%
EEFT	06/01/2020	$95.24	1	06/11/2020	$104.46	9.68%	0.1489%
	06/30/2020	$93.84	0.5	09/04/2020	$98.35	4.81%	0.0370%
ESTC	06/15/2020	$82.23	1	09/04/2020	$103.19	25.49%	0.3921%
ETSY	07/27/2020	$102.65	1	09/03/2020	$117.82	14.78%	0.2274%
EXPI	07/20/2020	$16.90	0.5	09/03/2020	$41.86	147.69%	1.1361%
FLGT	07/27/2020	$20.04	1	09/04/2020	$30.62	52.79%	0.8122%
FSLY	07/24/2020	$77.77	1	09/03/2020	$84.04	8.06%	0.1240%
GH	07/06/2020	$83.90	1	09/04/2020	$91.53	9.09%	0.1399%
HCAT	07/24/2020	$35.79	0.5	09/04/2020	$32.74	-8.52%	-0.0656%
INSP	07/01/2020	$87.56	0.5	09/04/2020	$119.34	36.30%	0.2792%
IPOB	07/20/2020	$11.95	0.5	09/04/2020	$11.81	-1.17%	-0.0090%
KNSL	08/26/2020	$204.08	1	09/04/2020	$199.70	-2.15%	-0.0330%
MDB	06/16/2020	$200.33	1	09/03/2020	$234.52	17.07%	0.2626%
MDLA	07/30/2020	$29.77	0.5	09/03/2020	$36.41	22.30%	0.1716%
MELI	07/24/2020	$971.47	1	09/03/2020	$1,127.08	16.02%	0.2464%
MGNI	06/01/2020	$6.34	1	09/04/2020	$7.11	12.15%	0.1868%
MRNA	07/09/2020	$62.31	1	09/04/2020	$64.18	3.00%	0.0462%
MTCH	07/07/2020	$92.54	1	09/04/2020	$108.39	17.13%	0.2635%
NET	07/17/2020	$35.65	0.5	09/03/2020	$36.98	3.73%	0.0287%
NNOX	08/24/2020	$24.35	0.5	09/04/2020	$37.85	55.44%	0.4265%
NTNX	06/01/2020	$23.97	1	06/11/2020	$22.38	-6.63%	-0.1021%
NVCR	07/28/2020	$67.15	0.5	09/04/2020	$81.12	20.80%	0.1600%
NVDA	08/03/2020	$431.44	1	09/03/2020	$540.78	25.34%	0.3899%
NVTA	06/01/2020	$16.89	1	06/11/2020	$16.44	-2.66%	-0.0410%
	06/25/2020	$26.98	1	09/04/2020	$33.28	23.35%	0.3592%
OKTA	07/24/2020	$204.36	1	09/04/2020	$206.48	1.04%	0.0160%
OLED	07/28/2020	$159.81	0.5	09/04/2020	$171.83	7.52%	0.0579%
PANW	08/03/2020	$253.85	0.5	09/03/2020	$252.21	-0.65%	-0.0050%
PI	08/03/2020	$23.66	0.5	09/04/2020	$25.44	7.52%	0.0579%
PING	07/01/2020	$32.13	0.5	09/01/2020	$35.61	10.83%	0.0833%
QDEL	06/25/2020	$200.88	0.5	09/04/2020	$156.99	-21.85%	-0.1681%
RDFN	07/15/2020	$36.98	1	09/04/2020	$46.27	25.12%	0.3865%
REGN	07/27/2020	$620.40	0.5	09/03/2020	$587.40	-5.32%	-0.0409%
RGEN	06/30/2020	$120.29	1	09/04/2020	$146.24	21.57%	0.3319%
RVLV	07/16/2020	$16.04	0.5	09/04/2020	$20.73	29.24%	0.2249%
SDGR	07/24/2020	$76.06	1	08/04/2020	$75.23	-1.09%	-0.0168%
SFIX	07/01/2020	$25.67	1	09/04/2020	$26.01	1.32%	0.0204%
SMAR	06/16/2020	$47.62	1	09/03/2020	$54.29	14.01%	0.2155%
SPCE	07/09/2020	$17.79	1	09/04/2020	$16.29	-8.43%	-0.1297%
TDOC	07/29/2020	$218.30	2	09/03/2020	$206.22	-5.53%	-0.1703%
TEAM	07/17/2020	$170.77	1	09/03/2020	$187.10	9.56%	0.1471%
TTD	07/24/2020	$416.18	1	09/04/2020	$452.34	8.69%	0.1337%
TTWO	06/18/2020	$140.19	0.5	09/03/2020	$170.29	21.47%	0.1652%
TWLO	07/17/2020	$226.77	1	09/03/2020	$253.03	11.58%	0.1782%
VCYT	07/29/2020	$29.06	0.5	09/04/2020	$32.41	11.53%	0.0887%
VEEV	07/01/2020	$235.94	1	09/04/2020	$276.34	17.12%	0.2634%
WD	06/03/2020	$42.88	1	09/04/2020	$56.05	30.71%	0.4725%
WORK	06/17/2020	$32.65	1	09/03/2020	$32.12	-1.62%	-0.0250%
ZM	07/01/2020	$253.93	1	09/03/2020	$395.75	55.85%	0.8592%
ZNGA	06/22/2020	$9.36	0.5	09/04/2020	$8.86	-5.34%	-0.0411%
	06/22/2020	$9.36	0.5	08/24/2020	$9.24	-1.28%	-0.0099%
ZS	08/04/2020	$131.51	1	09/03/2020	$149.93	14.01%	0.2155%
ZUO	06/01/2020	$12.03	0.5	06/11/2020	$12.27	2.00%	0.0153%
	06/18/2020	$13.46	1	08/24/2020	$11.47	-14.78%	-0.2275%
	06/18/2020	$13.46	0.5	09/03/2020	$11.73	-12.85%	-0.0989%
# Closed Positions	57.5	Gain/Loss Per Position		14.36%	Return on Principal		9.78%
		Open Positions
# Open Positions	0	Gain/Loss Per Position		0.00%	Return on Principal		0.00%
	Performance
% Cash	100.00%	Avg Gain/Loss Per Position	14.36%	Annualized Return on Principal	37.59%	Return on Principal	9.78%
S&P		Start	3038.78	End	3426.96	Gain/Loss	12.77%

[BlueWolf]

I sold off the last of my positions. I’m completely flat in the market. Gotta run somewhere, but I’ll update later.

[BlueWolf]

I think you're probably right to take profits here. The trend seems really unsustainable right now, and I think we are due for another big swing to the downside. There's just too much pressure from the poor earnings bound to come out over the next few months to keep the bubble up any longer, imo.

I’m watching closely, Jiesen. You’re right, though, we are way overdue for a big correction.

[Louetta]

..........

[jiesen]

I think you're probably right to take profits here. The trend seems really unsustainable right now, and I think we are due for another big swing to the downside. There's just too much pressure from the poor earnings bound to come out over the next few months to keep the bubble up any longer, imo.

[BlueWolf]

Technically, we are still within our uptrend, but I am very tempted to take profits here. I already gave up a lot of profits today.

[billyjoe]

My long term dividend holds: FAX, OKE, HQL

long term appreciation : ABC, AMGN, MA

-----------------billy

[BlueWolf]

Good call on NNOX.

I figured it was a high risk play as an IPO, but I was really impressed by their product.

[Louetta]

Good call on NNOX.

[BlueWolf]

Round 4 Performance as of Market Close, Sept 28, 2020

I opened two new positions this week, closed one, and cut two others in half as part of a minor rebalancing. As I mentioned in a previous post, I closed my position on AYX because of their poor recent quarter, and more importantly, because of their weak guidance for the rest of the year. I cut my positions in ZNGA and ZUO in half after re-assessing their near term prospects, although I still think both of these stocks, particularly ZUO, has really solid long term potential. It was therefore worth keeping half positions open. Finally, I opened a full position in KNSL, a company that has been on my high interest watchlist for a while now and I took a flier on NNOX, a purely speculative play just because I love their technology and sales success so far.

Performance remains good, but not extraordinary with ~10% return on principal to date (a ~40% annualized return) with about ~080%/20% stocks-to-cash ratio.

Position Summary:

Round 4	Start Date	6/1/2020	End Date	8/28/2020	Max Open Positions		65
Stock	Date	Purchase Price	Position Size	Date Closed	Current or Closing Price	% Gain/Loss on Trade	% Gain/Loss on Principal
		Closed Positions
# Closed Positions	7	Gain/Loss Per Position		-2.48%	Return on Principal		-0.27%
		Open Positions
AAPL	08/17/2020	$460.23	1		$499.23	8.47%	0.1304%
ABMD	07/29/2020	$297.26	1		$303.04	1.94%	0.0299%
ANET	07/02/2020	$210.32	1		$222.04	5.57%	0.0857%
APPN	07/01/2020	$50.95	1		$59.51	16.80%	0.2585%
AYX	07/21/2020	$162.30	1	08/24/2020	$112.20	-30.87%	-0.4749%
BRK/B	07/23/2020	$191.81	0.5		$218.55	13.94%	0.1072%
CGNX	07/09/2020	$61.48	0.5		$68.40	11.26%	0.0866%
CRSP	08/03/2020	$86.60	1		$90.71	4.75%	0.0730%
CRWD	07/24/2020	$99.41	1		$118.64	19.34%	0.2976%
DDOG	07/30/2020	$90.59	1		$82.98	-8.40%	-0.1292%
DOCU	07/17/2020	$191.30	1		$215.24	12.51%	0.1925%
EBS	07/30/2020	$93.42	0.5		$117.59	25.87%	0.1990%
EDIT	07/01/2020	$29.93	1		$34.96	16.81%	0.2586%
EEFT	06/30/2020	$93.84	0.5		$106.31	13.29%	0.1022%
ESTC	06/15/2020	$82.23	1		$110.39	34.25%	0.5269%
ETSY	07/27/2020	$102.65	1		$119.66	16.57%	0.2549%
EXPI	07/20/2020	$16.90	0.5		$40.97	142.43%	1.0956%
FLGT	07/27/2020	$20.04	1		$30.25	50.95%	0.7838%
FSLY	07/24/2020	$77.77	1		$94.67	21.73%	0.3343%
GH	07/06/2020	$83.90	1		$96.14	14.59%	0.2244%
HCAT	07/24/2020	$35.79	0.5		$30.59	-14.53%	-0.1118%
INSP	07/01/2020	$87.56	0.5		$117.13	33.77%	0.2598%
IPOB	07/20/2020	$11.95	0.5		$10.80	-9.62%	-0.0740%
KNSL	08/26/2020	$204.08	1		$204.57	0.24%	0.0037%
MDB	06/16/2020	$200.33	1		$225.91	12.77%	0.1964%
MDLA	07/30/2020	$29.77	0.5		$35.37	18.81%	0.1447%
MELI	07/24/2020	$971.47	1		$1,178.90	21.35%	0.3285%
MGNI	06/01/2020	$6.34	1		$7.19	13.41%	0.2063%
MRNA	07/09/2020	$62.31	1		$67.49	8.31%	0.1279%
MTCH	07/07/2020	$92.54	1		$111.50	20.49%	0.3152%
NET	07/17/2020	$35.65	0.5		$39.65	11.22%	0.0863%
NNOX	08/24/2020	$24.35	0.5		$25.98	6.69%	0.0515%
NVCR	07/28/2020	$67.15	0.5		$82.00	22.11%	0.1701%
NVDA	08/03/2020	$431.44	1		$525.91	21.90%	0.3369%
NVTA	06/25/2020	$26.98	1		$34.35	27.32%	0.4203%
OKTA	07/24/2020	$204.36	1		$207.98	1.77%	0.0273%
OLED	07/28/2020	$159.81	0.5		$181.39	13.50%	0.1039%
PANW	08/03/2020	$253.85	0.5		$254.67	0.32%	0.0025%
PI	08/03/2020	$23.66	0.5		$24.00	1.44%	0.0111%
PING	07/01/2020	$32.13	0.5		$35.01	8.96%	0.0690%
QDEL	06/25/2020	$200.88	0.5		$162.97	-18.87%	-0.1452%
RDFN	07/15/2020	$36.98	1		$48.31	30.64%	0.4714%
REGN	07/27/2020	$620.40	0.5		$602.61	-2.87%	-0.0221%
RGEN	06/30/2020	$120.29	1		$150.19	24.86%	0.3824%
RVLV	07/16/2020	$16.04	0.5		$20.11	25.37%	0.1952%
SFIX	07/01/2020	$25.67	1		$23.77	-7.40%	-0.1139%
SMAR	06/16/2020	$47.62	1		$53.31	11.95%	0.1838%
SPCE	07/09/2020	$17.79	1		$17.46	-1.85%	-0.0285%
TDOC	07/29/2020	$218.30	2		$208.57	-4.46%	-0.1371%
TEAM	07/17/2020	$170.77	1		$192.43	12.68%	0.1951%
TTD	07/24/2020	$416.18	1		$485.70	16.70%	0.2570%
TTWO	06/18/2020	$140.19	0.5		$171.06	22.02%	0.1694%
TWLO	07/17/2020	$226.77	1		$264.45	16.62%	0.2556%
VCYT	07/29/2020	$29.06	0.5		$33.02	13.63%	0.1048%
VEEV	07/01/2020	$235.94	1		$274.07	16.16%	0.2486%
WD	06/03/2020	$42.88	1		$56.58	31.95%	0.4915%
WORK	06/17/2020	$32.65	1		$31.91	-2.27%	-0.0349%
ZM	07/01/2020	$253.93	1		$299.27	17.86%	0.2747%
ZNGA	06/22/2020	$9.36	0.5		$9.06	-3.21%	-0.0247%
ZS	08/04/2020	$131.51	1		$141.13	7.32%	0.1125%
ZUO	06/18/2020	$13.46	0.5		$13.46	0.00%	0.0000%
# Open Positions	50.5	Gain/Loss Per Position		16.22%	Return on Principal		9.95%
	Performance
% Cash	22.31%	Avg Gain/Loss Per Position	13.94%	Annualized Return on Principal	40.13%	Return on Principal	9.68%
S&P		Start	3038.78	End	3508.01	Gain/Loss	15.44%
XXX	= New Position		XXX	= Altered Position	XXX	= Closed Position

Watchlists:

Super High Interest: AMT, CRNC, EPAM, SHOP, WIX, ZEN

High Interest: AAXN, ADBE, AMZN, APPF, ASML, ATVI, BL, COUP, CRM, CSGP, EQIX, EVBG, FB, FICO, FIVN, FRPT, FVRR, GLOB, HQY, HUBS, ISRG, LOB, MA, MASI, MSFT, NEE, NOW, NTNX, PAYC, PYPL, QRVO, QTWO, RH, ROKU, SIVB, SPLK, SQ, STAA, SWAV, SWKS, TREX, V

Some Interest: AVGO, AYX, BIDU, BIGC, BILI, BKNG, BOMN, BZUN, CLDR, DAVA, FLIR, FTCH, FTNT, GOOG, IDXX, IIPR, IPHC, LITE, LRN, LYV, MNST, NVAX, OLLI, PEGA, PINS, PODD, PTON, SE, SGEN, SPOT, TSLA, WEX, XLNX, ZG

Bold - New stock on list


New Stocks

NNOX
This is company with a disruptive, new technology in the medical imaging space. There isn’t a lot of financial data on the company, which just IPO’d last week, but they have inked some impressive deals so far. I was impressed enough to take a shot.

KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) is an insurance holding company engaged in offering property, casualty, and specialty insurance products. The company operates in only one reportable segment that is the Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance segment, which includes commercial excess and surplus lines liability and property insurance products through its underwriting divisions. The company generates revenues in the form of premiums and investment income. Their business has been very lucrative with excellent margins that are well above average for the insurance industry. Since their 2016 IPO, revenue growth has been exceptional rising from $137.5M in FY 2016 to a projected $388.18M for FY 2020 with growth every year. During that same period, EPS rose from $1.26 for FY 2016 to a projected $3.01 for FY 2020. In short, Kinsale has been a money machine and the company’s future still looks bright. With a growth story like this, I am in.

[BlueWolf]

I think it’s going to take a long time to recover, so yesterday I closed my AYX position. I also pruned ZNGA and ZUO to half positions from full. I also opened a half posItion in NNOX. I have to admit that I took a flier opening this position as there isn’t a whole lot of financial information available for NNOX. It only IPO’d last Friday. The served market is impressive ($45-50B a year), but what intrigues me is the product. Basically, NNOX produces a brand new, digital solution for performing X-Ray based medical scans. The really exciting facet of this technology is that it has the promise of reducing the cost of a scan by an order of magnitude thereby opening up this technology to underserved areas of the globe. They have already secured orders for thousands of their units including one order for 3,000 units in the United States. Bottom line is that their technology looks revolutionary to me so I am taking a chance on them.