Stocks for the Long Term

[BlueWolf]

Here’s a summary of my current positions along with my watchlists. NOTE: I can no longer ignore Paco’s REGN pick, and I have therefore added it to my watchlists. Granted, it has already booked substantial gains, but if the company does indeed end up being first to market with a COVID-19 vaccine, there will be a lot more upside. In any event, it’s worth watching, especially if there is a correction and there appears to be a good entry. I also added MRNA for similar reasons. I took a look at SRNE too, but after reading Hindenburg Research’s scathing analysis, I decided to steer clear of that one.

Round 3
		Closed Positions
Closed Position Totals	Total Gain/Loss	660.45%	Num Positions	73.0	Gain/Loss % Per Position	9.05%
		Open Positions
Stock	Date	Purchase Price	Position Size	Date Closed	Current or Closing Price	Effective Gain/Loss
ABMD	05/22/2020	$197.36	1		$206.16	4.46%
DOCU	02/27/2020	$79.01	0.5		$133.00	34.17%
	05/04/2020	$103.65	0.5		$133.00	14.16%
EDIT	05/20/2020	$27.84	1		$30.10	8.12%
HQY	05/20/2020	$56.83	1		$56.79	-0.07%
MDLA	05/15/2020	$23.34	1		$26.79	14.78%
NTNX	05/18/2020	$21.35	1		$24.61	15.27%
NVTA	05/20/2020	$16.29	1		$17.51	7.49%
SFIX	05/08/2020	$16.71	0.5		$23.51	20.35%
	05/15/2020	$19.37	0.5		$23.51	10.69%
SPCE	05/22/2020	$14.68	0.5		$15.74	3.61%
TEAM	03/02/2020	$143.71	2		$182.60	54.12%
TTD	05/04/2020	$274.50	2		$307.60	24.12%
TWLO	03/02/2020	$109.36	1		$208.62	90.76%
WD	05/20/2020	$39.54	0.5		$39.06	-0.61%
WORK	05/07/2020	$28.19	1		$31.71	12.49%
ZEN	05/22/2020	$80.12	1		$81.93	2.26%
ZM	05/04/2020	$141.20	2		$171.06	42.29%
ZUO	05/20/2020	$11.17	0.5		$12.06	3.98%
Open Position Totals	Total Gain/Loss	362.44%	Num Positions	18.5	Gain/Loss % Per Position	19.59%
Grand Totals	Total Gain/Loss	1022.89%	Num Positions	91.5	Gain/Loss % Per Position	11.18%
	S&P Open (2/26/2020)	$3,062.54	S&P Current	$2,955.45	S&P Gain/Loss %	-3.50%

High Interest Watchlist: AAPL, AAXN, ADBE, AMT, AMZN, ANET, APPF, APPN, ATVI, AYX, BRK/B, CGNX, CRM, CRSP, CRWD, CSGP, DDOG, EEFT, EPAM, EQIX, ESTC, ETSY, EVBG, FB, FICO, FIVN, FLGT, FRPT, FSLY, FVRR, GH, GLOB, HCAT, HUB, ICPT, INSP, ISRG, KNSL, LITE, LVGO, MA, MASI, MDB, MELI, MSFT, MTCH, NÉE, NET, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, PANW, PAYC, PING, PYPL, QDEL, QTWO, RDFN, REGN, RGEN, ROKU, RUBI, RVLV, SDGR, SHOP, SIVB, SMAR, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TDOC, TREX, TTWO, V, VEEV, WIX, ZEN, ZNGA, ZS

Some Interest Watchlist: BYFT, BIDU, BILI, BKNG, BOMN, BZUN, COUP, CRNC, DAVA, EXPI, FTCH, FTNT, GOOG, IDXX, IIPR, LYV, MNST, MRNA, NOW, OLED, OLLI, SE, SPOT, TSLA, XLNX, ZG

[BlueWolf]

Here’s an update on my current holdings, which are pretty thin, and my watchlists. I’ve been trading in and out a lot lately, mostly out this last week, and will probably continue to do so for a while. At this point I’m really not sure what to make of the market, but there will be more on that in my weekly market sentiment post. Regarding this update, I have included the individual gain/loss for each open position and a gain/loss summary for all of my closed positions. The reason I didn’t list each closed trade individually is simple because I have so many of them. If anyone is interested, however, I will be happy to post the detailed list of closed trades. Just ask. I am continuing to treat this as round three since I still have a few continuously open positions. One last note: I have found a few typos in my spreadsheet since my last post, which I have corrected.

Round 3
Stock	Date	Purchase Price	Position Size	Date Closed	Current or Closing Price	Effective Gain/Loss
Closed Position Totals	Gain/Loss	660.45%	Num Positions	73.0	Avg Gain/Loss	9.05%
	Open Positions
DOCU	02/27/2020	$79.01	0.5		$125.88	29.66%
	05/04/2020	$103.65	0.5		$125.88	10.72%
MDLA	05/15/2020	$23.34	1		$24.67	5.70%
SFIX	05/08/2020	$16.71	0.5		$21.41	14.06%
	05/15/2020	$19.37	0.5		$21.41	5.27%
TEAM	03/02/2020	$143.71	2		$186.50	59.55%
TTD	05/04/2020	$274.50	2		$300.01	18.59%
TWLO	03/02/2020	$109.36	1		$189.22	73.02%
WORK	05/07/2020	$28.19	1		$31.33	11.14%
ZM	05/04/2020	$141.20	2		$174.83	47.63%
Open Position Totals	Gain/Loss	275.35%	Num Positions	11.0	Avg Gain/Loss	25.03%
Grand Totals	Gain/Loss	935.80%	Num Positions	84.0	Overall Avg Gain/Loss	11.14%
S&P	02/26/2020	$3,062.54	S&P Current	$2,863.70	S&P Gain/Loss	-6.49%

High Interest Watch List:

AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, ADBE, AMT, AMZN, ANET, APPF, APPN, ATVI, AYX, BRK/B, CGNX, CRM, CRSP, CRWD, CSGP, DDOG, EDIT, EEFT, EPAM, EQIX, ESTC, ETSY, EVBG, FB, FICO, FIVN, FLGT, FRPT, FSLY, FVRR, GH, GLOB, HCAT, HQY, HUB, ICPT, INSP, ISRG, KNSL, LITE, LVGO, MA, MASI, MDB, MELI, MSFT, MTCH, NÉE, NET, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA, OKTA, PANW, PAYC, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RDFN, RGEN, ROKU, RUBI,RVLV, SDGR, SHOP, SIVB, SMAR, SPCE, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TDOC, TREX, TTWO, V, VEEV, WD, WIX, ZEN, ZNGA, ZS, ZUO

Some Interest Watchlist:
BYFT, BIDU, BILI, BKNG, BOMN, BZUN, COUP, CRNC, DAVA, EXPI, FTCH, FTNT, GOOG, IDXX, IIPR, LYV, MNST, NOW, OLED, OLLI, SE, SPOT, TSLA, XLNX, ZG

[BlueWolf]

Up to 80% cash now. I’ll post my holdings and watchlist after the close.

[Louetta]

Cramer's Survival Of the Fittest list, presumably for customer facing businesses:

Costco Walmart Target Amazon McDonalds Wendy's Wingstop Chipotle Starbucks Dominos Burger King

[billyjoe]

I used to hold 25 different stocks. Down to 5 now , 4 good dividend payers and MA that pays a small div. I've owned these off and on for many years and track their charts closely. The other 4 are CIVB, FAX, HQL, and OKE. I've set low ball entry points at which I add partial positions, when they rise I don't trade just waiting for another dip. My average cost per stockj remains rather low and I'm only looking at small losses even with a correction. Until this COVID crises settles I'm being very conservative and also mostly in cash.

-----------------billy

[BlueWolf]

I have more cash now than I have had in many moons. Can't get it out of my head that the 2nd quarter will be an earnings disaster (but of course not for everybody, e.g. ZM, PTON, etc.) and the reopening will be long and difficult. Some studies see unemployment still up at 11% at Christmas and 7% at Christmas in 2021.

I’m with you, Louetta. I did some more selling today and now I am about 71% cash. I’m not sure exactly when it will start happening, but it sure seems like, sooner or later, the market is going to experience a second way of COVID-19 selling. If it were a movie, it would be a sequel titled “COVID-19: The Aftermath.” Maybe I’m wrong about this. Maybe, by some miracle, the market will shrug off the bad economic numbers and earnings that are about to hit because it’s already priced in. I kind of doubt that, but if that’s true, I will simply have to start re-building my long term positions. If it’s not true, and another big correction is coming, I am going to try and keep my powder dry for the big buying opportunities that will manifest themselves. I’ll keep doing my day trading (I haven’t been day trading all that much), but for the time being, instead of buy and hold investing I will be doing a lot of short term swing trading. This stuff is down right nerve-racking.

[Louetta]

I have more cash now than I have had in many moons. Can't get it out of my head that the 2nd quarter will be an earnings disaster (but of course not for everybody, e.g. ZM, PTON, etc.) and the reopening will be long and difficult. Some studies see unemployment still up at 11% at Christmas and 7% at Christmas in 2021.

[BlueWolf]

Doing some repositioning and purging today.

[Louetta]

Cramer's entire COVID-19 list. He's not saying to buy at this level but if there is a pull-back and one wants to put some money to work these would be good ideas.


Beverages: PepsiCo Boston Beer

Cloud software: Salesforce.com Adobe Zoom Video RingCentral Slack
CrowdStrike Okta Zscaler Cloudflare Coupa Software DocuSign
Everbridge Veeva Systems

Consumer packaged goods: Clorox Colgate-Palmolive Kimberly-Clark Procter & Gamble

E-commerce: Chewy EBay Shopify Prologis

Financials: MarketAxess Tradeweb Square PayPal

Video games: Activision Blizzard Electronic Arts Take-Two Interactive

Home entertainment: Netflix Roku Snap Spotify Akamai Technologies The Trade Desk

Health care: Abbott Laboratories AbbVie Centene UnitedHealth Group
Gilead Sciences Regeneron Sanofi Danaher Masimo Thermo Fisher
Eli Lilly Baxter Becton Dickinson DexCom GlaxoSmithKline
Johnson & Johnson Perrigo Pfizer ResMed Zoetis

Mega-cap technology: Alphabet Amazon Apple Microsoft

Samll-cap tech: Citrix Systems Logitech

Packaged food: Campbell Soup Conagra General Mills Hormel J M Smucker Kellogg
McCormick Mondelez

REITs: American Tower Crown Castle CoreSite Realty Digital Realty Equinix

Restaurant survivors: Chipotle Domino’s Pizza Wingstop

Retail survivors: Costco Walmart Dollar General Home Depot

Semiconductors: Advanced Micro Devices Nvidia Marvell Technology

Safety stocks: Dominion Energy NextEra Energy Verizon

‘Exotics’: BioNTech Inovio Moderna Livongo Teladoc Health Barrick Gold Beyond Meat
Freshpet Inseego Owens & Minor Peloton

[BlueWolf]

I have a bad attitude about SQ. It was my pick in last year's stock picking contest and did nothing in all of 2019. Of course this is this year and the world has changed.

Yeah, I held SQ for a while last year and it disappointed me too. Still, I look at their business and the market they are serving and I am convinced there is still a lot of upside there. It’ll stay on my watchlists for now.

Speaking of germ-filled gyms, look at the chart of CLUB, Town Sports International which owns the gym I go to (when I could). They are facing bankruptcy in November and the chart is breath taking. Planet Fitness (PLNT) is at least hanging in.

OMG, CLUB. I would say that they took the COVID-19 lockdown hard, but I think that was just the final straw. They started tanking in 2018 and never stopped. Something is wrong with management at that company.

Overall, I feel like the health and fitness industry is on the verge of some major changes due to technology. New technologies like Mirror are going to send out shockwaves. I think one thing that Peloton has right is their effort to virtually socialize fitness training with their online live courses. You are spot on when you point out that use of home equipment takes away the social experience of going to the gym. I think the equipment makers can address this a little with the right technology. They need to build Zoom like capabilities into their equipment. One thing I think home equipment manufacturers are missing, however, is the personalization angle. I think everybody would love a personal trainer. The Mirror starts to bring that into the equation, but that’s a direction I think can really grow the industry. Imagine having a AI-based personal trainer or physical therapist built right into your equipment.

And yes, we’re in it for the long haul now. There is going to be a shock factor when the economic numbers start coming out, although I was surprised that the market rallied last week after some pretty dismal unemployment numbers were released. I believe that it’s inevitable that we are heading into a recession soon. All we can do is hold on and watch our investments closely. I don’t want to get caught in another round of panic selling, so I will start closing positions to lock in profits as soon as I see signs of trouble.

[Louetta]

Sorry about the typos.

I have a bad attitude about SQ. It was my pick in last year's stock picking contest and did nothing in all of 2019. Of course this is this year and the world has changed.

As a confirmed gym rat I have never had confidence in PTON. I do not spin but I can't get it out of my head that a big part of the spinning experience is going to the gym, setting up your favorite bike, talking to other spinners and screaming thru the workout. Of course the world has changed and it's an ideal way to avoid germ filled gyms and has done very well.

Speaking of germ-filled gyms, look at the chart of CLUB, Town Sports International which owns the gym I go to (when I could). They are facing bankruptcy in November and the chart is breath taking. Planet Fitness (PLNT) is at least hanging in.

I have relatives who are now taking their yoga classes on Zoom, good for ZM and, I suppose, any company that offers home exercise classes. I do not know how to invest (except via ZM) but this is very attractive for many who fear the gym germs (when you lift all you do is go about touching stuff other people have just touched), who have mobility issues, don't want to go out in winter or who are embarrassed to go to the facility (why they have women's only rooms). Got to be a way to make money off this.

Running outside is still relatively germ free and popular. I just bought a Garmin watch (GRMN), the cheapest ($100) they sell, and a pair of Brooks shoes ($125). Brooks is owned by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A or B) which is a good company though running shoes are not their primary focus. But they do support Desi Linden who won Boston in 2018 so they must be good shoes.

Also, I do not think the recovery will be a V or W or L or Q but rather a swoosh, best exampled by the Nike (NKE) emblem. NKE is another stock Cramer is touting. This is a serious suggestion. Even after people go back to work they will have to use their money to pay bills, not to go out and shop. Could be a long haul.

[BlueWolf]

I realize not everyone is enamoured of Jim Cramer but his top ten performers on his COVID-19 index are Peloton, Moderna, Livongo, Everbridge, Coupa Software, Dexrom, Cloudface, Square, Masimo, Beyond Meat.

Some interesting stocks on that list. I’ve seen other touts of Peleton (PTON), but I remain skeptical. Moderna (MRNA) is an interesting pick, but the ideal time to get in that one would have been while it was in that base between $45 and $50. You’re also betting on the fact that they will actually produce a COVID-19 vaccine. Assuming they do, it won’t really affect the bottom line for quite some time. I really like Livongo (LVGO) and I wish I was sitting on a full position right now instead of half. I re-bought around $40, and it’s jinked up quite a bit from that. If not for that, I would go ahead and add another 1/2 position. I still might. Coupa (COUP) is a good solid pick, and I probably should add that to one of my watch lists. Everbridge (EVBG) has been on my watch lists (and still is) for a long time, but I have never pulled the trigger. Square (SQ) is a solid pick as is Masimo (MASI). Both of those have been on my watch lists for a while. Beyond Meat (BYND) is intriguing, and could be a homerun stock, but there is big risk there as they have a couple of major competitors jockeying with them for the dominant position in the world of meatlessness. By Dexrom, I assume you meant Dexcom (DXCM). They are another solid pick operating in the diabetes medical space in which a few other stocks I watch compete. I also assume you meant Cloudfare (NET) when you wrote Cloudface. That is one was that was off my radar, but that is very interesting to me now that you mentioned it. I’m going to look into it more. Thanks for posting this.

[Louetta]

I realize not everyone is enamoured of Jim Cramer but his top ten performers on his COVID-19 index are Peloton, Moderna, Livongo, Everbridge, Coupa Software, Dexrom, Cloudface, Square, Masimo, Beyond Meat.

[BlueWolf]

Thanks, Louetta. It’s actually easier to provide the information in the tabular form since I naturally keep it that way.

[Louetta]

You are not spamming the thread, methinks. I can, however, see where it might be a lot of work providing all this info.