Rules for Pick of The Year (PoTY) 2022

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, July 29, 2022

Well, another up week in the market has shaken things up on our leaderboard. BillyJoe’s UTHR still holds the top position by a comfortable margin, but moving into second place is Antioch’s GRBK. GRBK holds this position despite a 20% penalty, although given the disastrous start by the market this year, taking the penalty might have been a pretty smart idea. Congrats to Antioch, who also happens to have the only other pick in the green this week besides UTHR. In third place after a miraculous ascent over the last three weeks is Mr. Market’s TLPPF, which is only .08% below the break even mark. That’s saying something after the market slaughter we witnessed in the first half of the year. Congrats huge one. We still have several other picks hovering around the break even mark, which should make for some interesting jostling over the next several weeks. Keep up the good picking, pickers, and I will see you at next week’s update.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, July 29, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 231.070		14.46%
2	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 26.800	20.00%	1.84%
3	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 4.896		-0.08%
4	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 31.720		-0.60%
5	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 102.040		-1.28%
6	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 162.510	20.00%	-3.82%
7	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 328.660		-6.39%
8	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 411.990		-8.43%
9	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 315.460		-13.11%
10	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 40.840		-13.22%
11	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 40.980		-28.53%
12	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 4.230		-31.55%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 42.930		-34.82%
14	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 14.800		-43.60%
15	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.600		-43.88%
16	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 8.180		-50.90%
17	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 1.010		-55.90%

[billyjoe]

It's not a good feeling having The Huge One chasing you down.

---------------billy

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 5, 2022

It was a slightly up week for the market, but we had big changes in the standings. Mr. Market’s little rocket, TLPPF, took over first place, pushing our long standing leader, BillyJoe’s UTHR, into second. Antioch’s GRBK held onto third place. The really good news is that we again have three picks beating the market and in the green. Congratulations leaders on a job well done. Will there be more jostling in the next several weeks? Will more picks move into positive territory? Will the Easter Bunny finally get that much needed dental work? Stay tuned.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 5, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 5.500		12.24%
2	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 221.650		9.80%
3	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 27.500	20.00%	4.50%
4	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 31.500		-1.28%
5	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 165.350	20.00%	-2.14%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 327.970		-6.58%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 413.370		-8.12%
8	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 92.200		-10.80%
9	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 321.750		-11.38%
10	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 38.260		-18.70%
11	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 45.810		-20.11%
12	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 49.240		-25.24%
13	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 4.040		-34.63%
14	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 1.400		-38.86%
15	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.600		-43.88%
16	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 14.230		-45.77%
17	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 8.370		-49.76%

[mrmarket]

For those who care, we're back in bull market territory...hopefully this will consolidate some companies that have RS momentum so that I can start running my model again.

[jiesen]

Yeah, I've noticed my stock account balances are back up to where they were at the beginning of the year again. Hopefully we'll see some more HUGE picking going on soon!

[billyjoe]

Jiesen, Good job holding on and not panicking. We've had 2 or 3 major dips and recoveries this year. Imagine if you sold out at every dip. I know people that have done that and are noticeably poorer.

--------------------billy

[jiesen]

Not just holding, but adding on during the dip. From 4200 down to a 3900 S&P I was adding more and more into the market, so I've come out ahead because of the dips!

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 12, 2022

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise! We have a new leader! Congrats to Antioch and his pick GRBK, which has taken over first place even with the penalty. Good picking, Antioch. In second place, and making a real contest of it, is Mr. Market’s TLPPF. Nice picking yourself, huge one. In third place is BillJoe’s UTHR, a steady pick that was in first place for an extended period. Congrats to our first three picks and Antioch’s Dad for having picks that are both in the green and beating the market.

As for the future, the daily charts suggest that we have broken the market’s down trend, but longer term weekly and monthly charts suggest that we may not be out of the woods yet as far as the bear goes. If this uptick was merely a bounce in a longer term mega-trend, and if the market is going to roll over again within that trend, we are currently near the inflection point at which it would do it. So watch closely my picking friends and stay tuned and alert.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 12, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 30.360	20.00%	15.37%
2	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 5.650		15.31%
3	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 217.100		7.54%
4	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 172.100	20.00%	1.85%
5	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 30.990		-2.88%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 337.830		-3.77%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 427.100		-5.07%
8	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 330.390		-9.00%
9	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 5.513		-10.80%
10	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 41.220		-12.41%
11	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 48.760		-14.96%
12	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 84.090		-18.64%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 51.150		-22.34%
14	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 15.220		-42.00%
15	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.600		-43.88%
16	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 1.230		-46.29%
17	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 8.420		-49.46%

[BlueWolf]

2022 PotY Mock Portfolio As of 8/12/2022

In case anyone is interested, I am doing a mock portfolio of our picks again this year. I basically allocated $2,000 to each position. So, with 14 picks, this basically created a $28K portfolio. We’re not doing as good this year as we did last year, down 12.88% on the year. Here is the portfolio:

2022 PotY Mock Portfolio As of 8/12/2022 (~ $2000 positions)
Stock	Open	Shares	Short/Long	Cost	Close	Value	Gain	Gain %
AAPL	$140.81	14	Long	$ 1971.34	$ 172.10	$ 2409.40	$438.06	22.22%
AUPH	$16.66	120	Long	$ 1999.20	$ 8.42	$ 1010.40	-$988.80	-49.46%
DOCN	$57.34	35	Long	$ 2006.90	$ 48.76	$ 1706.60	-$300.30	-14.96%
GBTC	$26.24	76	Long	$ 1994.24	$ 15.22	$ 1156.72	-$837.52	-42.00%
GRBK	$21.93	91	Long	$ 1995.63	$ 30.36	$ 2762.76	$767.13	38.44%
HZO	$47.06	42	Long	$ 1976.52	$ 41.22	$ 1731.24	-$245.28	-12.41%
IPA	$6.18	324	Long	$ 2002.32	$ 5.51	$ 1786.11	-$216.21	-10.80%
OGN	$31.91	63	Long	$ 2010.33	$ 30.99	$ 1952.37	-$57.96	-2.88%
OZON	$20.67	97	Long	$ 2004.99	$ 11.60	$ 1125.20	-$879.79	-43.88%
QDEL	$103.36	19	Long	$ 1963.84	$ 84.09	$ 1597.71	-$366.13	-18.64%
RBLX	$65.86	30	Long	$ 1975.80	$ 51.15	$ 1534.50	-$441.30	-22.34%
SFT	$2.29	873	Long	$ 1999.17	$ 1.23	$ 1073.79	-$925.38	-46.29%
TLPPF	$4.90	408	Long	$ 1999.20	$ 5.65	$ 2305.20	$306.00	15.31%
UTHR	$201.87	10	Long	$ 2018.70	$ 217.10	$ 2171.00	$152.30	7.54%
Totals				$ 27,918.18		$ 24,323.00	-$3,595.18	-12.88%

[mrmarket]

In case anyone is interested, I am doing a mock portfolio of our picks again this year. I basically allocated $2,000 to each position. So, with 14 picks, this basically created a $28K portfolio. We’re not doing as good this year as we did last year, down 12.88% on the year. Here is the portfolio:

2022 PotY Mock Portfolio As of 8/12/2022 (~ $2000 positions)
Stock	Open	Shares	Short/Long	Cost	Close	Value	Gain	Gain %
AAPL	$140.81	14	Long	$ 1971.34	$ 172.10	$ 2409.40	$438.06	22.22%
AUPH	$16.66	120	Long	$ 1999.20	$ 8.42	$ 1010.40	-$988.80	-49.46%
DOCN	$57.34	35	Long	$ 2006.90	$ 48.76	$ 1706.60	-$300.30	-14.96%
GBTC	$26.24	76	Long	$ 1994.24	$ 15.22	$ 1156.72	-$837.52	-42.00%
GRBK	$21.93	91	Long	$ 1995.63	$ 30.36	$ 2762.76	$767.13	38.44%
HZO	$47.06	42	Long	$ 1976.52	$ 41.22	$ 1731.24	-$245.28	-12.41%
IPA	$6.18	324	Long	$ 2002.32	$ 5.51	$ 1786.11	-$216.21	-10.80%
OGN	$31.91	63	Long	$ 2010.33	$ 30.99	$ 1952.37	-$57.96	-2.88%
OZON	$20.67	97	Long	$ 2004.99	$ 11.60	$ 1125.20	-$879.79	-43.88%
QDEL	$103.36	19	Long	$ 1963.84	$ 84.09	$ 1597.71	-$366.13	-18.64%
RBLX	$65.86	30	Long	$ 1975.80	$ 51.15	$ 1534.50	-$441.30	-22.34%
SFT	$2.29	873	Long	$ 1999.17	$ 1.23	$ 1073.79	-$925.38	-46.29%
TLPPF	$4.90	408	Long	$ 1999.20	$ 5.65	$ 2305.20	$306.00	15.31%
UTHR	$201.87	10	Long	$ 2018.70	$ 217.10	$ 2171.00	$152.30	7.54%
Totals				$ 27,918.18		$ 24,323.00	-$3,595.18	-12.88%

Nice work Wolfie

[BlueWolf]

Nice work Wolfie

Thank you, huge one!

[BlueWolf]

This space for rent

Oops, my standings double posted for some reason. Since we can’t delete posts, I just zeroed out this duplicate.

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 19, 2022

Fee Fie Foe Fum, boy oh boy is this market dumb. After building a little momentum over the last couple of weeks, the market retraced this week, undoing some of its recent gains. As I said last week, we had reached a point at which a market rollover would be consistent with a long term downtrend on the monthly and weekly charts. Personally, I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet. We could be looking at a very long term bear market. Then again, the market unhappiness is a kind of understandable. Runaway inflation … a declining GDP … the Fed printing money by the bucket full … the government spending money like a drunken sailor … OPEC putting the squeeze on … a devastating war in the Ukraine … Russia threatening to make the conflict nuclear … China on the brink of invading Taiwan … oh, and an ongoing global pandemic with the threat of a second one looming. I mean, what’s not to like? Ok, Ok, back to the contest.

We had a little shakeup again this week with BillyJoe’s UTHR retaking the lead it had held for quite a while. In second and third are Antioch’s GRBK and Antioch’s Dad’s APPL, both of which have a 20% penalty on them. Impressive. These three pick are currently our only three picks both in the green and beating the market. We have two other picks beating the market and hovering around break even that might just shake things up in the coming weeks. After that? Well, not so good, but don’t give up hope. We have already seen some wild and rapid moves, and I think we might just see some more.

Good luck to all pickers. Stay the course.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 19, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 224.44		11.18%
2	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 27.01	20.00%	2.64%
3	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 171.52	20.00%	1.51%
4	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 6.16		-0.32%
5	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 30.66		-3.92%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 337.04		-4.00%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 422.14		-6.17%
8	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 322.86		-11.07%
9	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 4.35		-11.33%
10	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 41.35		-12.13%
11	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 86.13		-16.67%
12	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 43.37		-24.36%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 42.68		-35.20%
14	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.60		-43.88%
15	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 13.24		-49.54%
16	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 8.00		-51.98%
17	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.98		-57.21%

[BlueWolf]

PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 26, 2022

Well, it wasn’t really hard to see this coming. There simply isn’t any reason why the market should have a sustained rally given the current circumstances and events. Sure enough, after Congress passed a massive spending bill that is ironically designed to curb inflation, after a student loan forgiveness program that could cost anywhere from $250-$500 billion was announced, and after a rate hike that pundits say could be as high as 130 basis points was announced by the Fed, the market collapsed in exhaustion on Friday with the Dow crashing a massive 1000 pts and the NASDAQ following suit with a crash of 500 pts.

Obviously, our contest picks were effected, and pretty severely. We went from having three picks in the green to one. BillyJoe’s UTHR, our only green pick, held on to first place following the market bloodbath. Antioch’s GRBK and Antioch’s dad’s AAPL held on to second and third place respectively. The patterns on the three indices look remarkably similar with Friday’s giant red bar engulfing the prior bar on all three indices. If you look at the longer term charts, all this is consistent with a continued downtrend. I created a weekly chart for the Dow to illustrate this.

Annotated Weekly Dow Chart

https://www.dropbox.com/s/vetobuphuqyee2t/Dow%20Aug%2026%2C%202022.jpg?dl=0

All I can say is buckle your seatbelts. We may get a little bounce in a day or two after Friday’s bloodbath, which is a typical market reaction to a massive sell off and a great opportunity for a little day or scalp trading. Longer term, however, I still don’t think we’ve seen the end of the bear.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 26, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 215.30		6.65%
2	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 25.50	20.00%	-3.10%
3	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 163.62	20.00%	-3.16%
4	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 5.98		-3.24%
5	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 29.69		-6.96%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 322.93		-8.02%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 405.31		-9.91%
8	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 4.31		-12.04%
9	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 40.34		-14.28%
10	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 307.44		-15.32%
11	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 82.06		-20.61%
12	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 44.31		-22.72%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 39.56		-39.93%
14	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.60		-43.88%
15	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 12.67		-51.71%
16	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.72		-53.66%
17	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.92		-59.83%

[jiesen]

Well, it wasn’t really hard to see this coming. There simply isn’t any reason why the market should have a sustained rally given the current circumstances and events. Sure enough, after Congress passed a massive spending bill that is ironically designed to curb inflation, after a student loan forgiveness program that could cost anywhere from $250-$500 billion was announced, and after a rate hike that pundits say could be as high as 130 basis points was announced by the Fed, the market collapsed in exhaustion on Friday with the Dow crashing a massive 1000 pts and the NASDAQ following suit with a crash of 500 pts.

Obviously, our contest picks were effected, and pretty severely. We went from having three picks in the green to one. BillyJoe’s UTHR, our only green pick, held on to first place following the market bloodbath. Antioch’s GRBK and Antioch’s dad’s AAPL held on to second and third place respectively. The patterns on the three indices look remarkably similar with Friday’s giant red bar engulfing the prior bar on all three indices. If you look at the longer term charts, all this is consistent with a continued downtrend. I created a weekly chart for the Dow to illustrate this.

Annotated Weekly Dow Chart

https://www.dropbox.com/s/vetobuphuqyee2t/Dow%20Aug%2026%2C%202022.jpg?dl=0

All I can say is buckle your seatbelts. We may get a little bounce in a day or two after Friday’s bloodbath, which is a typical market reaction to a massive sell off and a great opportunity for a little day or scalp trading. Longer term, however, I still don’t think we’ve seen the end of the bear.

	PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Aug 26, 2022
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering Riverbabe And Karel
1	BillyJoe	UTHR	Long	2/1/2022	$201.87	$ 215.30		6.65%
2	Antioch	GRBK	Long	5/25/2022	$21.93	$ 25.50	20.00%	-3.10%
3	Antioch’s Dad	AAPL	Long	5/25/2022	$140.81	$ 163.62	20.00%	-3.16%
4	Massimo	IPA	Long	2/1/2022	$6.18	$ 5.98		-3.24%
5	Minni17	OGN	Long	2/1/2022	$31.91	$ 29.69		-6.96%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	2/1/2022	$351.08	$ 322.93		-8.02%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	2/1/2022	$449.91	$ 405.31		-9.91%
8	Mr. Market	TLPPF	Long	2/1/2022	$4.90	$ 4.31		-12.04%
9	Blind Squirrel	HZO	Long	2/1/2022	$47.06	$ 40.34		-14.28%
10	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	2/1/2022	$363.05	$ 307.44		-15.32%
11	Jiesen	QDEL	Long	2/1/2022	$103.36	$ 82.06		-20.61%
12	BlueWolf	DOCN	Long	2/1/2022	$57.34	$ 44.31		-22.72%
13	JohnHenry	RBLX	Long	2/1/2022	$65.86	$ 39.56		-39.93%
14	Peanuts	OZON	Long	2/1/2022	$20.67	$ 11.60		-43.88%
15	Louetta	GBTC	Long	2/1/2022	$26.24	$ 12.67		-51.71%
16	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	2/1/2022	$16.66	$ 7.72		-53.66%
17	Vixtt’s	SFT	Long	2/1/2022	$2.29	$ 0.92		-59.83%

indeed, this does not bode well at all. anyway, congrats Billyjoe for staying green through it all!