Rules for Pick of The Year (PoTY) 2022

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    It could be worse...you could have flown out to Dublin to root for Nebraska.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

    Comment

    • Louetta
      Senior Member
      • Oct 2003
      • 2331

      Originally posted by mrmarket View Post
      It could be worse...you could have flown out to Dublin to root for Nebraska.
      By the by I got down to Tufts last Spring for an outdoor track meet. Bet it was three years since because of the covid.

      Comment

      • BlueWolf
        Senior Member
        • Jun 2009
        • 1081

        PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 2, 2022

        Well, do you want the bad news or the bad news? That pretty much sums up the market last week. For the second week in a row we had bearish engulfing bars on all three of the major indices’ daily charts on Friday. This week, however, it was far more pronounced. Ugh. After the smoke cleared, that left us with only one pick in the green, BillyJoe’s UTHR in first, and two picks beating all three indices, add Antioch’s Dad’s AAPL in second. Minni17’s OGN, a one time leader, moved into third by the narrowest of margins. Again, looking at the longer term charts, I don’t think this bleeding is over. Better hunker down and stock up on toilet paper (Why is it that toilet paper seems to disappear during a crisis?). A long time ago, when I was a young whippersnapper of an investor, a seasoned veteran once told me that during a bear market there were only three things to invest in: Alcohol, fast food, and fashion. Why fashion I never figured out except to guess that during bad times, we all like to be drunk, fat, and trendy. Go figure. Anyway, good luck moving forward my fellow pickers. See you next week.


        PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 2, 2022
        #
        Contestant
        Stock
        L or S
        Start
        Open
        Current
        Penalty
        Gain/Loss
        Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
        1
        BillyJoe UTHR Long 2/1/2022 $201.87 $‎ 222.91
        10.42%
        2
        Antioch’s Dad AAPL Long 5/25/2022 $140.81 $‎ 155.81 20.00% -7.79%
        3
        Dow DIA Long 2/1/2022 $351.08 $‎ 313.76
        -10.63%
        4
        Minni17 OGN Long 2/1/2022 $31.91 $‎ 28.50
        -10.69%
        5
        Antioch GRBK Long 5/25/2022 $21.93 $‎ 23.46 20.00% -10.85%
        6
        Mr. Market TLPPF Long 2/1/2022 $4.90 $‎ 4.31
        -12.04%
        7
        S&P SPY Long 2/1/2022 $449.91 $‎ 392.24
        -12.82%
        8
        Massimo IPA Long 2/1/2022 $6.18 $‎ 5.27
        -14.72%
        9
        NASDAQ QQQ Long 2/1/2022 $363.05 $‎ 295.17
        -18.70%
        10
        Jiesen QDEL Long 2/1/2022 $103.36 $‎ 78.53
        -24.02%
        11
        Blind Squirrel HZO Long 2/1/2022 $47.06 $‎ 35.31
        -24.97%
        12
        BlueWolf DOCN Long 2/1/2022 $57.34 $‎ 38.41
        -33.01%
        13
        JohnHenry RBLX Long 2/1/2022 $65.86 $‎ 37.94
        -42.39%
        14
        Peanuts OZON Long 2/1/2022 $20.67 $‎ 11.60
        -43.88%
        15
        Louetta GBTC Long 2/1/2022 $26.24 $‎ 12.38
        -52.82%
        16
        Tiedyed1 AUPH Long 2/1/2022 $16.66 $‎ 7.22
        -56.66%
        17
        Vixtt’s SFT Long 2/1/2022 $2.29 $‎ 0.82
        -64.34%

        Comment

        • Louetta
          Senior Member
          • Oct 2003
          • 2331

          "a seasoned veteran once told me that during a bear market there were only three things to invest in: Alcohol, fast food, and fashion."

          That may refer to designer stuff. If you can afford to drop $5-15,000 on an evening dress mayhap you have enough salted away so economic trends don't affect you. But even Lululemon is doing well earnings wise despite the current economy and the recent stay at home culture. LULU might not be a bad buy here tho the year has been poor for the stock price.

          Comment

          • BlueWolf
            Senior Member
            • Jun 2009
            • 1081

            PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 9, 2022

            We had an up week, but it wasn’t enough to push any more picks into the green. We do now have three picks beating the indices, though. So the standings this week are BillyJoe’s steady pick UTHR in first and in the green, Minni17’s OGN moving into second and beating the indices, and Antioch’s Dad’s APPL in third and also beating the indices. I was going to share my insights on the market direction, but charting data was down when I wrote this, so I couldn’t do a detailed analysis. A cursory look at the indices’ dailies with another charting tool I have, however, seem to indicate that we are at a possible inflection point for the short term. In any event, with inflation still looming large and a large interest rate hike on the way, I am not optimistic about the market’s ability to sustain any kind of rally. So buckle up, hold tight, and stand fast while we see how the winds blow.


            PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 9, 2022
            #
            Contestant
            Stock
            L or S
            Start
            Open
            Current
            Penalty
            Gain/Loss
            Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
            1
            BillyJoe UTHR Long 2/1/2022 $201.87 $‎ 223.48
            10.70%
            2
            Minni17 OGN Long 2/1/2022 $31.91 $‎ 29.83
            -6.52%
            3
            Antioch’s Dad AAPL Long 5/25/2022 $140.81 $‎ 157.37 20.00% -6.86%
            4
            Dow DIA Long 2/1/2022 $351.08 $‎ 322.28
            -8.20%
            5
            Massimo IPA Long 2/1/2022 $6.18 $‎ 5.65
            -8.58%
            6
            Antioch GRBK Long 5/25/2022 $21.93 $‎ 24.01 20.00% -8.76%
            7
            S&P SPY Long 2/1/2022 $449.91 $‎ 406.60
            -9.63%
            8
            NASDAQ QQQ Long 2/1/2022 $363.05 $‎ 307.09
            -15.41%
            9
            Jiesen QDEL Long 2/1/2022 $103.36 $‎ 85.97
            -16.82%
            10
            Mr. Market TLPPF Long 2/1/2022 $4.90 $‎ 3.80
            -22.45%
            11
            BlueWolf DOCN Long 2/1/2022 $57.34 $‎ 44.08
            -23.13%
            12
            Blind Squirrel HZO Long 2/1/2022 $47.06 $‎ 34.50
            -26.69%
            13
            JohnHenry RBLX Long 2/1/2022 $65.86 $‎ 45.53
            -30.87%
            14
            Peanuts OZON Long 2/1/2022 $20.67 $‎ 11.60
            -43.88%
            15
            Louetta GBTC Long 2/1/2022 $26.24 $‎ 13.45
            -48.74%
            16
            Tiedyed1 AUPH Long 2/1/2022 $16.66 $‎ 7.26
            -56.42%
            17
            Vixtt’s SFT Long 2/1/2022 $2.29 $‎ 0.85
            -62.97%

            Comment

            • BlueWolf
              Senior Member
              • Jun 2009
              • 1081

              Charting is back up, so I went ahead and generated annotated daily and weekly charts for the NASDAQ (the other indices are similar). Bottom line? We are at inflection points on both the daily and weekly charts. What does that mean? It means that we could potentially be looking at both near term and longer term trend reversals. We’ll need confirmations, but the signs right now are good. I’m still apprehensive because of the state of the economy, but I think buying a little at these levels, should the market continue up on Monday, could produce some results. Because of the dangers right now, however, any positions I open will be carefully trail stopped.

              Annotated NASDAQ Daily Chart as of close 9/10/22
              https://www.dropbox.com/s/asjdoukfe0...02022.jpg?dl=0

              Annotated NASDAQ Weekly chart as of close 9/10/22
              https://www.dropbox.com/s/rxbzgkckuy...02022.jpg?dl=0

              Comment

              • Louetta
                Senior Member
                • Oct 2003
                • 2331

                Originally posted by BlueWolf View Post
                Charting is back up, so I went ahead and generated annotated daily and weekly charts for the NASDAQ (the other indices are similar). Bottom line? We are at inflection points on both the daily and weekly charts. What does that mean? It means that we could potentially be looking at both near term and longer term trend reversals. We’ll need confirmations, but the signs right now are good. I’m still apprehensive because of the state of the economy, but I think buying a little at these levels, should the market continue up on Monday, could produce some results. Because of the dangers right now, however, any positions I open will be carefully trail stopped.

                Annotated NASDAQ Daily Chart as of close 9/10/22
                https://www.dropbox.com/s/asjdoukfe0...02022.jpg?dl=0

                Annotated NASDAQ Weekly chart as of close 9/10/22
                https://www.dropbox.com/s/rxbzgkckuy...02022.jpg?dl=0
                Interesting stuff.

                Comment

                • BlueWolf
                  Senior Member
                  • Jun 2009
                  • 1081

                  Well, folks, this is why I call them inflection points. I was hopeful that we might continue up and establish an uptrend, but Friday’s confirmed what common sense was telling me: The state of the economy is very bad and not likely to improve any time soon. What triggered this latest sell off? Well, to absolutely no one’s surprise, except maybe the delusional people who passed the “anti-inflation” bill, the CPI report was released and indicated hotter than expected inflation rates.

                  On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.1% in August versus expectations for a decline of 0.1%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to 0.6%, compared with the consensus for an increase of 0.3%. Annual inflation advanced 8.3% last month, slower than an 8.5% jump in July, but faster than the Street's view for an 8.1% increase. All of this was taken as very bad news by the market.

                  Comments by economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons pretty much nailed it: "Today's inflation report is a game changer in terms of Fed expectations. Yes, energy and food prices are moderating, but core pressure (remains) very stubborn. The July slowdown in core now looks like a one-off, rather than (the) beginning of a trend.”

                  I think that last statement sums up the recent up tick in the market. It looks like a one off rather than the beginning of an uptrend. So now, barring some good news, the market is probably going to challenge it’s prior pivot lows on both the daily (short term) and the weekly (longer term). Batten down the hatches, pickers, it’s very likely that there are more rough waters ahead.

                  Comment

                  • billyjoe
                    Senior Member
                    • Nov 2003
                    • 9014

                    BlueWolf, Me and Mrs. Billy's retirement accounts are dominated by dividend paying stocks. Lows were on June20th of this year. They are up 14.5% from that date and we have withdrawn about 1% in cash since June 20th.

                    -------------------billy

                    Comment

                    • BlueWolf
                      Senior Member
                      • Jun 2009
                      • 1081

                      Originally posted by billyjoe View Post
                      BlueWolf, Me and Mrs. Billy's retirement accounts are dominated by dividend paying stocks. Lows were on June20th of this year. They are up 14.5% from that date and we have withdrawn about 1% in cash since June 20th.

                      -------------------billy
                      Dividend paying stocks are a good idea in a bear market, and a good way to ensure you always have some kind of income from your investments.

                      Comment

                      • Louetta
                        Senior Member
                        • Oct 2003
                        • 2331

                        Cramer recommended SPG, FRT and O tonight. I've had SPG for some time.

                        Comment

                        • BlueWolf
                          Senior Member
                          • Jun 2009
                          • 1081

                          PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 16, 2022

                          Yet another week of thunder struck down the market this week and our picks paid for it. BillyJoe’s UTHR continues to be our only in-the-green pick and our leader. Minni17’s OGN and Antioch’s Dad’s AAPL hold down second and third respectively. There’s not much more to say at this point except “Ugh.”


                          PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 16, 2022
                          #
                          Contestant
                          Stock
                          L or S
                          Start
                          Open
                          Current
                          Penalty
                          Gain/Loss
                          Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
                          1
                          BillyJoe UTHR Long 2/1/2022 $201.87 $‎ 218.11
                          8.04%
                          2
                          Minni17 OGN Long 2/1/2022 $31.91 $‎ 28.61
                          -10.34%
                          3
                          Antioch’s Dad AAPL Long 5/25/2022 $140.81 $‎ 150.70 20.00% -10.81%
                          4
                          Dow DIA Long 2/1/2022 $351.08 $‎ 308.05
                          -12.26%
                          5
                          Antioch GRBK Long 5/25/2022 $21.93 $‎ 23.00 20.00% -12.60%
                          6
                          S&P SPY Long 2/1/2022 $449.91 $‎ 385.56
                          -14.30%
                          7
                          Massimo IPA Long 2/1/2022 $6.18 $‎ 5.20
                          -15.86%
                          8
                          Mr. Market TLPPF Long 2/1/2022 $4.90 $‎ 4.05
                          -17.35%
                          9
                          NASDAQ QQQ Long 2/1/2022 $363.05 $‎ 289.32
                          -20.31%
                          10
                          Jiesen QDEL Long 2/1/2022 $103.36 $‎ 81.78
                          -20.88%
                          11
                          BlueWolf DOCN Long 2/1/2022 $57.34 $‎ 41.56
                          -27.52%
                          12
                          Blind Squirrel HZO Long 2/1/2022 $47.06 $‎ 30.44
                          -35.32%
                          13
                          JohnHenry RBLX Long 2/1/2022 $65.86 $‎ 39.50
                          -40.02%
                          14
                          Louetta GBTC Long 2/1/2022 $26.24 $‎ 11.98
                          -54.34%
                          15
                          Tiedyed1 AUPH Long 2/1/2022 $16.66 $‎ 7.30
                          -56.18%
                          16
                          Vixtt’s SFT Long 2/1/2022 $2.29 $‎ 0.74
                          -67.58%
                          17
                          Peanuts OZON* Long 2/1/2022 $20.67 $‎ 0.00
                          -100.00%
                          * - Delisted because of Russia sanctions

                          Comment

                          • billyjoe
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2003
                            • 9014

                            UTHR hanging on by a thread.

                            --------------billy

                            Comment

                            • BlueWolf
                              Senior Member
                              • Jun 2009
                              • 1081

                              PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 23, 2022

                              Well, it was another lovely week for the market, and our picks got clobbered again. Our first place holder and sole pick in the green, BillyJoe’s UTHR, is hanging on by a thread. Our second and third place holders this week are Antioch’s Dad’s AAPL and Antioch’s GRBK. The market looks like it is nearing the bottom of it’s regression channel here, so I expect some sort of bounce this week unless we go into complete panic selling mode, which is a distinct possibility at this point. Let’s see what the winds blow this way, but as for the PotY contest this year, the die is cast. There will be no real winners this year.


                              PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 23, 2022
                              #
                              Contestant
                              Stock
                              L or S
                              Start
                              Open
                              Current
                              Penalty
                              Gain/Loss
                              Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
                              1
                              BillyJoe UTHR Long 2/1/2022 $201.87 $‎ 207.62
                              2.85%
                              2
                              Antioch’s Dad AAPL Long 5/25/2022 $140.81 $‎ 150.43 20.00% -10.97%
                              3
                              Dow DIA Long 2/1/2022 $351.08 $‎ 295.86
                              -15.73%
                              4
                              Antioch GRBK Long 5/25/2022 $21.93 $‎ 21.78 20.00% -17.24%
                              5
                              S&P SPY Long 2/1/2022 $449.91 $‎ 367.95
                              -18.22%
                              6
                              Minni17 OGN Long 2/1/2022 $31.91 $‎ 25.75
                              -19.30%
                              7
                              Mr. Market TLPPF Long 2/1/2022 $4.90 $‎ 3.75
                              -23.47%
                              8
                              NASDAQ QQQ Long 2/1/2022 $363.05 $‎ 275.51
                              -24.11%
                              9
                              Jiesen QDEL Long 2/1/2022 $103.36 $‎ 72.58
                              -29.78%
                              10
                              Massimo IPA Long 2/1/2022 $6.18 $‎ 4.00
                              -35.28%
                              11
                              BlueWolf DOCN Long 2/1/2022 $57.34 $‎ 36.79
                              -35.84%
                              12
                              Blind Squirrel HZO Long 2/1/2022 $47.06 $‎ 30.00
                              -36.25%
                              13
                              JohnHenry RBLX Long 2/1/2022 $65.86 $‎ 35.54
                              -46.04%
                              14
                              Louetta GBTC Long 2/1/2022 $26.24 $‎ 11.20
                              -57.34%
                              15
                              Tiedyed1 AUPH Long 2/1/2022 $16.66 $‎ 7.03
                              -57.80%
                              16
                              Vixtt’s SFT Long 2/1/2022 $2.29 $‎ 0.65
                              -71.51%
                              17
                              Peanuts OZON* Long 2/1/2022 $20.67 $‎ 0.00
                              -100.00%
                              * - Delisted because of Russia sanctions

                              Comment

                              • jiesen
                                Senior Member
                                • Sep 2003
                                • 5322

                                Originally posted by BlueWolf View Post
                                Well, it was another lovely week for the market, and our picks got clobbered again. Our first place holder and sole pick in the green, BillyJoe’s UTHR, is hanging on by a thread. Our second and third place holders this week are Antioch’s Dad’s AAPL and Antioch’s GRBK. The market looks like it is nearing the bottom of it’s regression channel here, so I expect some sort of bounce this week unless we go into complete panic selling mode, which is a distinct possibility at this point. Let’s see what the winds blow this way, but as for the PotY contest this year, the die is cast. There will be no real winners this year.


                                PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sep 23, 2022
                                #
                                Contestant
                                Stock
                                L or S
                                Start
                                Open
                                Current
                                Penalty
                                Gain/Loss
                                Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
                                1
                                BillyJoe UTHR Long 2/1/2022 $201.87 $‎ 207.62
                                2.85%
                                2
                                Antioch’s Dad AAPL Long 5/25/2022 $140.81 $‎ 150.43 20.00% -10.97%
                                3
                                Dow DIA Long 2/1/2022 $351.08 $‎ 295.86
                                -15.73%
                                4
                                Antioch GRBK Long 5/25/2022 $21.93 $‎ 21.78 20.00% -17.24%
                                5
                                S&P SPY Long 2/1/2022 $449.91 $‎ 367.95
                                -18.22%
                                6
                                Minni17 OGN Long 2/1/2022 $31.91 $‎ 25.75
                                -19.30%
                                7
                                Mr. Market TLPPF Long 2/1/2022 $4.90 $‎ 3.75
                                -23.47%
                                8
                                NASDAQ QQQ Long 2/1/2022 $363.05 $‎ 275.51
                                -24.11%
                                9
                                Jiesen QDEL Long 2/1/2022 $103.36 $‎ 72.58
                                -29.78%
                                10
                                Massimo IPA Long 2/1/2022 $6.18 $‎ 4.00
                                -35.28%
                                11
                                BlueWolf DOCN Long 2/1/2022 $57.34 $‎ 36.79
                                -35.84%
                                12
                                Blind Squirrel HZO Long 2/1/2022 $47.06 $‎ 30.00
                                -36.25%
                                13
                                JohnHenry RBLX Long 2/1/2022 $65.86 $‎ 35.54
                                -46.04%
                                14
                                Louetta GBTC Long 2/1/2022 $26.24 $‎ 11.20
                                -57.34%
                                15
                                Tiedyed1 AUPH Long 2/1/2022 $16.66 $‎ 7.03
                                -57.80%
                                16
                                Vixtt’s SFT Long 2/1/2022 $2.29 $‎ 0.65
                                -71.51%
                                17
                                Peanuts OZON* Long 2/1/2022 $20.67 $‎ 0.00
                                -100.00%
                                * - Delisted because of Russia sanctions

                                Ah, poor Peanuts... got roasted!

                                Comment

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