Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[noshadyldy]

NOshadylady,

I suppose you already know why NGPS dumped from $50 to $20? An institutional investor walked away, selling 3 million shares. Institutional ownership is way low now, below 16%. However, the CEO (if he can be trusted) says that the next two quarters look real good.

Thanks NBB, that's good to know.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Look--now that DFxxxxxx is out of it, I can hope it doesn't hit $55, right?

LOL ya, of course!

[df21084]

Thanks for not wrong-betting against me.

[B.J]

Spike, I commend you on your resistance/support take. I agree 100% that it's 100% true.

I own a stock MANC that's presenting a conundrum. Today's candlestick can be interpreted as either a hammer or black-body engulf. There have been 4 days this month that can be intrepreted as a black body engulf. It also has an unfilled gap between 5.35 and 5.70. The downtrend it's currently in is rather mild, but does its recent action tell me to perhaps look out below?

[spikefader]

Spike, I commend you on your resistance/support take. I agree 100% that it's 100% true.

I own a stock MANC that's presenting a conundrum. Today's candlestick can be interpreted as either a hammer or black-body engulf. There have been 4 days this month that can be intrepreted as a black body engulf. It also has an unfilled gap between 5.35 and 5.70. The downtrend it's currently in is rather mild, but does its recent action tell me to perhaps look out below?

Thnx
MANC: Here's a few thoughts:

[Runner]

I'll trade most anything as long as the chart looks good. Sure, I might feel better if the fundies match it, but that's just emotion.......and I learned a long time ago that raw emotion can be a terrible timer of the market. Fact is that price moves contrary to fundies and it's all about timing. This is why I can short a thing like ELN when King is showing us how good the fundies are. I can see a potential weakness such as a gap, and at the right time, fade the crowd during strength, and can get rewarded if I nail a good entry and there is a sudden change of fundies.

I encourage everyone to remember that even though fundies might be good today doesn't mean they're gonna be good tomorrow, and vice versa, a weak fundy stock might sudden get great news that sends it up. Noone knows what the future holds, even those analysts that know everything there is to know about a company and what it's likely to do in the immediate future.

Fundamental bias can really be a hinderance rather than an edge, especially if you are simply buying on fundies and not in combination with some technical validation. Bottom line is it's ALWAYS about timing. Ya gotta attempt to 'time' every single entry you make. Time them in a way that gives you an edge over the sharks who will feed and fade bullish moves on great fundies. Even the hottest bull stock has to retrace at some point, and those retracements are often very very tradeable, especially on the short side, since stocks actually more often than not fall faster than they rise. Look at any chart you like and you'll notice that the drops are more volatile. What takes 8 weeks to meander and rise can take 3 weeks to fully retrace with hardly any meandering down. Why is this? Emotion? Fear? Caution? Maybe, probably, yes. Whatever the reason, short side can produce faster profit and that's hard to say no to, even in a bull market.

Best to all.

Awesome explanation on this spike. You surely sent a powerful message..

ThanX,
runneR

[Runner]

Thnx. Not sure if it's true or not. The way I see it, resistance is resistance until it isn't. I've seen resistance withstand a whole day at a certain ask price...obviously a stock with relatively low volume and someone with a lot of shares selling at that ask price and someone bidding for a lot of shares at the bid....and the price flatlines. What usually happens in my experience is that eventually price breaks and moves quickly from there - either up or down. But usually on a larger volume stock, when resistance is tested a handful of times and the resistance doesn't break, the price falls away from it to test support. Likewise, if support is being tested and price bounces a handful of times, it gives the impression that it's good support and price bounces. The more it tests it, and the longer it holds, the more one would argue the strength of it. It's only when bidding at support runs out that price will drop. So the only true statement one can draw from the whole support/resistance concept is that support is support until it isn't, and resistance is resistance until it isn't. Pretty lame statement and arguably unhelpful, but at least it's 100% true

WoW, spike this is awesome as well. Man you have much to offer folks. I appreciate what you do!!

[MEA_1956]

Good Day Wise One

Runner is right your wisdom is amazing and my only hope is to retain half of what you share. I read somewhere that no good deed goes unreturned, maybe someday I shall figure out how to pay my dues.

A few weeks back I made a post about a simple mans plan, an as time rolls on I find myself looking at GWR and there recent selloff. If you have time here in this up and comming week I was hoping you might post one of your EXCELLENT CHARTS on GWR so I might be able to make a decent entry. Now me, I have been looking over the fundies and feel that I'm in the right place and with a little help I might be able to be in the right time on this entry.

Well thanks in advance and your kindness is deeply appreciated. ===> M.E.A.

[spikefader]

Yer welcome Runner

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
Your statement about support and resistance was great.

Ive watched NGPS lately since it made the retrace criteria.Ive noticed that 20.00 so far has provided buying in large blocks.Friday I saw bids of 30k sitting at 20.25.I grew impatient and jumped in the afternoon with a bid at 20.50 that got filled.Sure enough it came down to the large blocks and got bought up.I attempted to buy more under 20,but they were gone in a flash.

My question is what do you think of NGPS with the overwhelming bulk of volume above the curent price?

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

NGPS: where's it going?

Tom,

NGPS: what's your take on where its going?

My view: there are a lot of smoking hulks (i.e. people who bought in somewhere between $50 and where it is now) above you. They are eager 'just to get their money back.' If they get even, they are sellers. In other words, there is a lot of resistance overhead. I figure--perhaps incorrectly--that this fact is really going to slow the growth of this company's share price. Am I wrong? Teach me something.

[Thomrich]

Greetings NBB,
I agree with your theory,and I didnt consider that when buying.The chance of the bottom being 20 are unlikely the more I think about it,and should have stuck to what I know,being canroy swings.

I will look for a quick exit on NGPS at the first sign of weakness.My stop is 19.60,last weeks low.It appears to be cheap at these prices until you see that it was 15 just a couple months ago.Im not gonna fight the market,just go with the flow.

BTW EENC has dropped,look for low 17s next week,and mid 19s on PGH.Ill post my trades.

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Thanks, Tom

Tom,

Thanks for the heads-up on Cans. I am watching, and expect to buy soon.

NGPS--I hope you'll be able to bounce out of this thing with a profit Monday. I'd be alert to it. I have watched this thing since NOshadylady drew my attention to it. In the last five days, if you'll check a 5 day chart on Yahoo, you'll see that it did this: on two days, (Mon and Wed) it finished higher. But Tues, Thurs and Fri, it opened at the high for the day and slid lower. There's a chance that in the first hour she may come up enough to cover your entry. I hope so!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
Yes ,my suspicion is that NGPS may be another ESMC,run up from IBD coverage,and then hammered to death when dropped.I recently looked at ESMC and the numbers look good to me,yet the stock has been raped brutally.Someone on its message board can somhow track short daytraders false bids,and asks.Its intrigueing to watch how a stock can be manipulated.As soon as a rally gets going it gets choked by some short daytraders according to this guy,and he seems to call them right every time.

Anyone have a clue how short manipulation can be deciphered by watching level 2 ?
Ive noticed watching NGPS lately that the ask is often below the bid when it starts moving up.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Runner is right your wisdom is amazing and my only hope is to retain half of what you share. I read somewhere that no good deed goes unreturned, maybe someday I shall figure out how to pay my dues.

A few weeks back I made a post about a simple mans plan, an as time rolls on I find myself looking at GWR and there recent selloff. If you have time here in this up and comming week I was hoping you might post one of your EXCELLENT CHARTS on GWR so I might be able to make a decent entry. Now me, I have been looking over the fundies and feel that I'm in the right place and with a little help I might be able to be in the right time on this entry.

Well thanks in advance and your kindness is deeply appreciated. ===> M.E.A.

Hey Mea. Dunno about amazing, but thanks
I hope that whatever you DO retain is the best of whatever I throw out there. I sure have my fair share of misreads, mistakes and mis-timings.

Here's a few thoughts on GWR. It's got a good chance with the blue channel long. But look out if 24.24 doesn't hold. That would be failure at channel long, price support, and volume by price support. 22.00 is next after that.