TA vs. FA ..... a contest

[spikefader]

...I only pick what I would actually buy and sell... otherwise what is the point?? My 2 cents. Gotta run- football is starting....

Yep, I know what you're saying, but the point of picking stocks that you don't hold is for this: 1) To benefit the team and 2) Display some charting brilliance to those silly FA traders harhar

But seriously, if you see a chart that just looks fantastic, it's nuts NOT TO draw it up and submit it simply because you don't hold it yourself. After all, it's only a game for some laffs............and maybe even a game that will help each of us learn somethin' clever.

[spikefader]

...under $5 are easy shorts for a contest, just not in real life)

Shorting stocks under $5 IS real life. If your broker won't let you do it, go find another broker.

[IIC]

Geez...Whatta a fiasco.

The way I look at it is that TA is more short term and FA is more Intermediate or Longer Term. The timeframe for any contest is a killer.

Shorting stocks under 5 bux...possible...but not easy...In fact, I think shorting anything is not easy...IIC

PS...How much copper is in a penny anymore?...LOL

[skiracer]

Southern Peru Copper (PCU) produces copper from open pit mines in the Andes Mountains 400 miles from Lima, Peru and at two mines 25 miles south of the U.S. border in Mexico. By 12/31/04 they had 44.9 million tons of copper reserves , they added 22 million more tons of reserves through purchase of mines in Mexico this April (05). They operate smelters and refineries in both Mexico and Peru.
The April buyout of the Cananea and LaCaridad mines from Groupo Mexico SA makes them one of the world's top 3 copper producers. They now have an estimated 53 years worth of copper reserves. According to analyst Jorge Beristain of Deustche Ixe, U.S. copper producers have no more than 30 years of reserves with no plans for expansion.

PCU sells to Europe and America with increasing emphasis on the Far East including China.


In addition to copper , silver and molybdenum are produced as byproducts. Molybdenum which for years hovered between 5 - 10 dollars per pound has skyrocketed to $35.27 /lb. recently.

Why copper?
1. copper prices have increased from .65/lb. in 2002 to 1.80/lb in late 2005. Your pre-1982 95% copper penny is worth more than a penny when melted

2. inventories are at a 31 year low as demand , especially from China , is ever increasing

3. todays average car contains 55 pounds of copper. Hybrid cars which use copper rotors for their electric motors average 77 pounds copper per vehicle. Toyota Prius alone is up 90% in sales last month.

E.P.S. triple digit earnings growth last 3 quarters . Although First Call originally forecast a 10% drop this year to 6.74 , consensus E.P.S. has recently been revised to 8.28

Sales increase from 21 - 64% last 4 quarters

Revenue 2.3 billion

P/E 5.52

Yield 9.86%

R.O.E. 36.50%

52 week price range 41.24 - 66.50

market cap 8.21 billion

U.S. headquarters Phoenix Az.

employees worldwide 3544

and I might add , their chart the last 7 1/2 weeks doesn't look too shabby


billyjoe

Billyjoe,
Well who didn't know all of that? LOL. Nice report Billyjoe. That's what I was looking for from you guys on the FA end. I knew ya had it in you. Just needed a little prodding to get it out of ya. Now let's get this thing rolling from the rest of those FA guys on your side since you've set the parameters up for them.

Spike,
I'm with you on the specifics regarding our team's parameters. Whatever you set down is good with me.

[spikefader]

Ya, but fiascos can be hilarious!

And honestly IIC shorting stocks under $5 ain't any tougher than taking a long position. Either way, you gotta be right with direction or you stop out. And yes, sure, a dowtick rule makes it trickier, but you want to short into strength anyway when there ARE upticks to hit!

Add to that the fact that stocks often fall faster than they rise, it should be EASIER! lol

[jiesen]

I don't know if I can handle the responsibility of greenlighting all the picks from my teammates- but what the heck, I'll give it a shot.

So far the FA team has picked: PCU (billyjoe) HTRN (RL) and AMLN (me)
All look swell to me, so I'm going ahead with the plan to buy them all at open.
Mimo and Lye have yet to pick- but I know both are working hard to find the absolute best out there, so we're saving 2 more slots in the port for you guys, so don't let us down.

Billyjoe, you gave me the "captain" nomination, so I'm giving you the option to revoke the title, in case you realize the error of your ways, otherwise I'm going ahead as is- sh*t-all-over-the-barn style. Oh yeah, and the rules for this team are what you said earlier.

Ok, team business is out of the way, on with the AMLN writeup, if I dare.

[b_cadvantag]

Shorting stocks under $5 IS real life. If your broker won't let you do it, go find another broker.

Spike,

I use Ameritrade in my 4 accounts (3 IRA's and 1 Cash)- which does not allow any shorting under 5 bucks

I was thinking of adding another cash account, maybe Scott Trade or Interactive Brokers. I will have to look into this, maybe they would allow it. I have heard the it is expensive to short under 5 bucks (rates and charges).

But, Once a stock falls under 5 bucks the floor drops out...esp the Airlines..

[spikefader]

OK, Ski, Tag, dmk, and New-born, if you're still awake throw your entry orders on the thread for your picks.

For me, Long RATE, limit $28.08 which is the intraday pivot tomorrow.

EDIT: As for stop, my first thought is under Friday's low say at 26.55, which is 5.4% risk. If that's too high, I can tighten it up.


The buy limit of 28.08 follows the channel turn up today; my usual 'green light' agressive trade for these channel turn ups.

[spikefader]

..maybe Scott Trade or Interactive Brokers......I have heard the it is expensive to short under 5 bucks (rates and charges).
But, Once a stock falls under 5 bucks the floor drops out...esp the Airlines..

Interactivebrokers.com any day of the week over Scottrade. IB is direct access, a penny a share rates, a buck a side for options, and very very fast execution. You won't look back. Once you trade with direct access you never go back. IB also allows shorting stocks under $5.00, and their list of available is here

[jiesen]

AMLN - why I bought it

AMLN recently received approval for both of its main drug candidates. On approval, the stock traded down from the low $20s range to nearly $15, an absolutely insane price for a stock with 100M shares outstanding, and two new drugs each with billion-dollar potential. Currently, AMLN trades at $36 and is climbing steadily with 25M shorted shares dragging silly TA traders into an early retirement.

Early analyst projections downplayed the potential sales for Symlin and Byetta, claiming that the benefits were minimal, that inhaled insulin would compete, and patients are too afraid of needles to accept these drugs into their regimen. Well, actual results may vary! Patients are finding the needle to be no problem at all, and that the benefits of Byetta are far outweighing any inconvenience. Sales of Byetta are increasing at a rate of about 10% per week, putting Byetta on track for $100-150M this year, and likely more than double that in the next.

Symlin sales have been quite a bit slower than Byetta, to be sure, but the potential still exists for this drug to be as big a blockbuster as Byetta surely will be. Part of the success Byetta is having is due to the collaboration with LLY, and the effectiveness with which LLY is able to bring this drug to market. Once AMLN gets on the ball with their sales and marketing team, Symlin sales will be rising just as fast as Byetta.

I'm a chemist, Jim, not a doctor! So I can't pretend to explain to you how this drug works, but if you go check it out here:

http://www.byetta.com/hcp/200_incretin_mimetic.jsp?reqNavId=2

you'll see how Byetta helps a diabetic's body regain the ability to regulate glucose on its own, as well as trigger a feeling of fullness which prevents a diabetic from overeating. This may be one of the drug's best selling points. As patient after patient loses his or her excess weight, word gets out that this stuff really does change a person's life around, and next thing you know, every overweight diabetic is demanding it.

So enough about the products- given that they're in huge demand, are extremely profitable, as proprietary drugs are- what about the numbers?

Well income statements from the past of course do not do AMLN justice.
They lost 110M, 120M, and 160M in the years ending 02, 03, and 04.And they'll likely continue to lose money for another couple or three years... BUT they've done this while keeping a very healthy balance sheet:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AMLN

Check that out! They have a half a billion in cash and equivalents, but what about that $400M in debt you may ask? Gone! At today's stock price, that puts all of AMLN's debt as convertible to equity more valuable than the bond is worth. So you can forget about AMLN having any cash troubles... ever. If AMLN is good at one thing, it's been raising money. Whenever they've needed cash, they've found a way to get it, and that's paid off for them big-time.

Well, I'm getting tired writing this thing up, ($$MM I don't know how you manage to do this every time) but I do have a couple other things I want to mention... Byetta LAR is the next project they've got in the works, it's a once-a-week injection rather than the several times daily form it takes now. If this is shown to be just as effective, it will dramatically increase the patient acceptance, and therefore profits. Given the success AMLN has had previously with Symlin and Byetta, I say it's a cinch they'll get LAR approved. Not only this, but there are a few other candidates lurking behind the scenes, and I expect that Symlin and Byetta will not be the last drugs AMLN contributes to our world. AMLN will be joining the ranks of Amgen, Genentech, Biogen-Idec in short order, leaping to the $10B-$20B market cap range as sales climb into the billions.

[billyjoe]

IIC,
U.S. penny composition 1864- 1982 95% copper 1982-2002 2.5% copper after 2002 U.S. mint won't tell us maybe zinc + boca burger


billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Yup

You're on the TA team right? We need a pick from you. We wanna get this thing happening for tomorrow morning, close up EOD Wed, and give the other side a hard time for losing the rest of the week. LOL

tag, I vote OB are allowed in. But my reservation in using them is the higher potential of disaster for not only that one position, but the entire team average, which as I understand it is how this contest is going to be measured - i.e. team average.

Might be wiser to pick more liquid stocks of higher value. Unless of course you have a perfect entry point with reasonable r/r just like any other setup.

I am in. I'll throw my pick on the board:

And the winner is--looking for a two day pop--Mr. Peabody's COAL TRAIN!
[Much applause, whistling, shouting, and tears of joy].

Coal is the hottest of the hot on the Dow. Has been for six months. Mr. Peabody successfully blasted through resistance yesterday for a nice $1.77 gain. Yet, that rocket shot was the breakout from a minor cup formation. Futhermore, the STOs all say she is moving higher. The stock has been so incredibly hot that the 80 line on the STO has been acting as support.

Here's a portrait of the beauty:

[skiracer]

Spike,
I didn't have a backup ready so I'll have to go with my first choice ABAX.
I'll put a limit order in at 13.70 for this morning and everything else will remain the same.

[New-born baby]

PCU: for crying out loud!

Good thing we didn't start yesterday! BillyJoe's PCU popped $2.01 in the pre-market! BTW, I have a $59 first target, and a $73 second target for this one, with a very nice dividend.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
We may need 2 more picks in the next few minutes. I'll post one at 9:05 if needed, another at 9:15 unless you post first. No time for writeups , sorry ski. New-born , they must have read my writeup. Ha Ha

billyjoe